Even a 50% increase is too much. Covid pricing is already killing us.
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Not really. My point was, if there were no TVs (for example) made outside the US, most likely the TVs we could buy now would be much MUCH more expensive than the ones we have now from Asia. Whether itās twice as much or four times or whatever, itās a lot more.
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if a bad tv in 1970 turned into a good tv today and went from 3300 to 500 that means the price went down look man i dont know where your getting all this from
but think about base materials first what goes into model trains computers(on some) plastic a motor wires and some metal. mostly plastic for a good chunk of it.
why would you buy a brand new facility? makes 0 sense buy a used 3D printing facility half your work is done for you without paying for a brand new center. then you remodel.
surprise remodeling leaves open floor space for the other components and assembly. then you just move your machining from overseas to your building in that clean space from the remodel. your in buisness. you see how that works.
its like running a railroad are you gonna buy new stock when you run a company and move product. not if NOS or even used stock is available and in good enough condition. like my hoppers for my wax buisness try to find one i bought brand new it wont happen.
i rather pay 5$ for a used ho hopper thats still good than $20 for a new one
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i also forgot to mention the cost saved by the remodelās selling of items from the previous buisness that you dont need for your buisness. also as far as the used buisnessās computers you can reprogram them to suit your buisness
Pretty much without getting politicalā¦
These tariffs need to be removed from the model train industry- theres no way ot could be made in America and still exist. They would kill an industry otherwise.
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The used market depends on the new market, as clearly nobody manufactures used products. As new product enters the stream, people upgrade their fleet and dispense with the old. If no new product arrives, the supply of used product becomes more valuable, driving up the market valueā¦inflation.
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Thatās not inflation; itās simple microeconomic supply and demand.
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The chaotic nature and suddenness of the tariffs have given many companies little time to adapt. The ongoing uncertainty makes it hard to plan for the future. Big companies have successfully lobbied for some relief but the little companies will suffer.
I think some (all?) of the companies in this video are not going to survive. Others will also fail. Those already making at least some of their products in the U.S. have a better chance.
How the hobby changes is hard to predict. More kits. less detailed models, 3D printed models, less sound equipped locomotives, less DCC and more DC are some possibilities. Could we even revive paper car sides?
In the short run there will be shortages and some will quit the hobby. Eventually, there will be a new normal and the hobby will continue.
Paul
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Supply/demand is the cause of inflation in all cases.
And as competition will be eliminated (or greatly reduced) even domestic producers will be able to raise prices. The hobby will cost considerably more, not that it isnāt already expensive.
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We already have a general affordability problem in everyday life. Hobbies and other interests get squeezed out. While younger people continue to find a way into the hobby, tariffs, and inflation in general just add to that barrier.
The highly detailed models seem to be what people want. (or at least where the demand is) The āsomeoneā is buying argument. I certainly have a mix of the high detail RTR stock along with kits and used stock that can be upgraded.
Troubled times can lead to innovation and changes. We may see newer manufacturers enter with this new market reality and rethink how things are done.
Despite the videoās alarmist āthe hobby will die!ā hyperbole, it isnāt at all true. That panic messaging has been going on since at least the 1950ās, when plastics were introduced to the hobby on a large scale. Itās happened many times since as well.
The hobby isnāt dying now anymore than it ever was. It will change and adapt, as it always has. Some people will abandon the hobby, while others will join.
From some of the borderline paranoid comments in this thread, youād think the world consisted only of the US and China. It doesnāt. A lot of Lionel stuff comes out of Vietnam these days, Iām told. Their tariffs are nowhere near what Chinaās currently are. Some production has already shifted there; now a lot more might.
Some posters seem to think that Americans are simply incapable of making highly detailed model railroad products. Not true. It would take time to shift production back to the US, but it could be done and probably will, on a limited scale.
The tariffs are most likely relatively short term - at most probably in place only a few years (especially at the current high levels). So ease up on the Chicken Little stuff a bit, folks.
Regardless of what happens, Iām going to keep on model railroading. How might change a bit, but thatās all.
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By the way, take a closer look at the list of companies who are represented in that video. Theyāre not āthe industry;ā theyāre not even manufacturers. Theyāre just a prominent group of importers (most of which never existed domestically at all).
Their businesses will have to adapt to the new situation, yes, and that will cause them some difficulties. The other side of that coin is that the tariffs may be a real boon to domestic producers like Accurail. Maybe the hobby will shift a bit away from RTR to more kit building (ITāS THE END OF THE WORLD!!!).
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Canāt come fast enough, in my opinionā¦ but as printed and formed sides on a material like polyester film. Want easy scale windows with correct edge thickness and proper gasket appearance? Truly prototypical stainless-steel metal appearance, including potential damage or dents? Ease in creating custom lettering, window and door arrangements, and combinations of skirting ā and, where necessary, doing selective compression to get the ālookā of shorter cars right?
Then make the ācoreā of the car 3D-printed or resin-cast, and work out cost-effective ways to apply the sides, roof, and detailsā¦
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It most certainly is not. Inflation is not a loss of purchasing power, itās perceived devaluation of the worth of a currency in general exchange. And its cause is less the aggregate increase in prices as rational expectations of those increasesā¦ and organized efforts to formalize responses by increasing things like compensation more quickly than the price rises through things like COLAs or dramatic political increases in minimum wage.
While Iām fond of the neologism āshrinkflationā to describe the marketing response to increased factor price by reducing quantity sold for a given price, I donāt assume that this is directly associated with āinflationā and concomitant devaluation of currency as a store of value.
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When you increase compensation, you give more people more buying power. More people buying more things (ie increasing demand) leads to price increases, unless production rises at the same rate. Supply/demand=inflation. One can argue what causes demand to rise or supply to fall (real or perceived), but ultimately price is a product of demand vs the availability of supply.
There are manufacturers producing in Vietnam. As far as I know they donāt produce the most complex highly detailed RTR models. I wouldnāt count Lionel into this category and Roco gets its start set quality model from Vietnam. Looks like Vietnam is currently far enough advanced to compete with China. Currentlyā¦
Of course the USA can produce these highly detailed RTR models. Bowser has proven with the ALCO RS-3 that molds and injection molded parts can be made in the USA. With assembly in China, they can still compete.
Assembly would also be possible in the USA. The only question is whether the necessary employees can be found locally and whether anyone is willing to pay the exorbitant prices. Perhaps someone will subsidize US production.
Shifting production back to the USA will take a long time. Too long I fear for the importers to survive. In the meantime the Chinese manufacturers might work on their own. Without the margin of the importers it might be profitable after all. But again whoāll pay the prizes.
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Iād be ok with all of those.
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thatās is fantastic , I hope you keep expanding your track layout! 
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Welcome RogerBuckley
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