Why? What routes over 500 miles are competitive? Why bother to run a train beyond the limits of competitiveness? What 1000 mile route has 2 x 500 mile corridors within it? And if so, run it as two connecting corridors for the few who ride beyond the middle. Connections work fine in Europe and with the airlines. They simply need to haveshort and reliable overlaps.
We need to tell the consumer to stop doing what makes sense to them on a dis-utility of time basis and obey the corridor highway modeling theories meant to determine the number of lanes!
I believe the Crescent has around twenty 500 mile overlapping corridors. Look at the PRIIA breakdown to see the how evenly distributed they are in terms of volume.
There are two types of connections, end-to-end and perpendicular or crossing. The East Side Access project is investing a lot of money to eliminate an end-to-end connection in the most transit friendly place in the US. Why, because of the utility to the consumer. The TGV routes continue off the end of the LGV onto the classic lines, why because they originally terminated and forced a connection to a local train until it was discovered that the consumer preferred a one seat ride. Southwest used to operate all those end to end chained routes, the only reason that they don’t seem too be spreading is they are pulling out of the routes under 500 miles.
Think how much more utility the Downeaster trains would have if they continued onto the corridor in Boston. The new Virginia trains are doing so well as they do exactly that in Washington in a end-to-end connection of corridors. I have been trying to get the ITS guy to do a study using Bluetooth discovery loggers of the state travel patterns, as litterly nobody knows what the paths are on the highways, only the volume in one place. That is one of the problems we are attempting to use methodologies that were just designed to meet the volume in one place on a highway instead of understanding the paths that consumers actually want to take.
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So you can’t make a 500 mile trip on a 1000 mile route. Why is that?
Interconnected Corridors Def: An operational plan in which trip origin and destination pairs of multiple individual travelers are aggregated at peak times of travel and overlap, utilizing vehicles traveling through Metropolitan Statistical Areas; where adjoining Corridors might otherwise be defined to end, eliminating the disincentive of transferring vehicles. Syn: Long Distance Route or Through Corridors
Corridors Def: A route path that is a numerical simplification used for modeling demand using data known about Metropolitan Statistical Areas for input as developed for highway planning with the assumption that continuing and feeder routes that are not part of the model exist. Comparisons between modes using this simplification present many problems in reality. Syn: Lane Expansion Analysis.
Everybody recognizes we need Avoidable Cost numbers, see the TBD* blanks below from PRIIA reports in 2011.
You know, honestly I might get a bit annoyed as a member of Congress and pull a Central Florida, if Amtrak couldn’t provide what we are talking about here, Short-Te
Southwest is pulling out of routes less than 500 miles?
For September 11th Southwest shows approximately 44 daily flights between Dallas and Houston. It offers approximately 26 daily flights between Dallas and San Antonio. It even has approximately 24 daily flights between Dallas and Austin, a scant 175 miles. The approximate distance between Dallas and Houston is 240 miles; the approximate distance from Dallas to San Antonio is 275 miles.
Southwest has increased the number of flights between Dallas and Houston over the last couple of years. Many of them originate at other points and stop in Austin, Dallas, Houston, or San Antonio before continuing on to the aforementioned paired locations in Texas. Southwest has operated this way from the beginning. In its earliest days it flew Dallas to Houston, Harlingen, San Antonio, back to Dallas. And they did it with three airplanes.
The Washington to Lynchburg and Washington to Newport News trains are New York to Washington NEC trains that have been extended into Virginia. The distance from NYC to Lynchburg is 405 miles, and the distance from NYC to Newport News is 397 miles. The extensions, however, are keying off a dense corridor as opposed to operating in a stand alone corridor.
In FY 12 these trains showed an operating profit. Did they earn an operating profit on the Washington to Virginia legs or is the operating profit a function of the returns generated by the trains in the NYC to DC corridor? Without access to Amtrak’s books it is impossible to know.
What jumps out at me is lack of ridership in areas where the train runs in the dead of night vs. daylight. The SC cities aren’t in any of the top ten despite being larger than everything but NOL south of ATL.
We’d be better off with two ATL to NYP trains than one NOL to NYP train.
While Southwest has increased its flights in Texas, Sam, it has abandoned some routes in other parts of the country. Here is an article that lists several abandoned routes:
Also, the Seattle Spokane route, the Philadelphia to Boston route as well as other routes around Phildadelphia are reported to be abandoned.
It may be that Southwest has decided to concentrate around its base area where it was first successful.
John
V. Payne,
I hope you will bear with me if I am tedious on this subject. Sam, Don and Schlimm have long discussed it with me. I do agree with them that the long distance routes require the highest subsidies. There is a lot of logic in what all of them say. But I, for my own reasons, still disagree with them. So please allow me to got out to the end of my limb before I saw it off.
I have long maintained that to cut off some routes is to weaken all of Amtrak and if it is sufficiently weakened the whole organization will collapse. I don’t want to see that. I think you and I agree but I don’t want to put words in your mouth.
Recently Sam referred to a recent report by the Brookings Institute. That report stated the long distance routes are needed for reasons of equity, to give all parts of the country (or at least almost all parts) some benefit from Amtrak. That is a somewhat different perspective and one that I think deserves thought.
I do appreciate your contribution to this discussion.
John
My post was a response to the notion that Southwest Airlines had abandoned the under 500 mile market, which you left out.
Southwest is reducing its short haul flights in favor of longer flights in some instances for a variety of reasons. One of them is airport security. With the coming of the TSA, many people in Austin, who would have flown to Dallas, now drive because they don’t want to put up with the perceived security hassle, although clearing security at Austin’s airport rarely takes more than five to ten minutes.
Southwest Airlines is a dynamic, market driven company. It has been entering and exiting markets since it was founded. It will continue to do so. That’s what investor owned, market driven companies do.
Southwest has earned a profit for its investors over the long haul. It has never been in bankruptcy; it is considered a premier em
Actually there is a daytime train between New York and Charlotte, NC, Don. The Carolianian. It could be extended to Atlanta. I suspect, though, South Carolina and Georgia would have to put up some of the money to get Amtrak to do it. From New York to Atlanta is about 859 miles, long enough so the train would qualify for Federal funding. However I doubt Congress is in a mood to even think about such things. The House seems to have its hands full just coming to an agreement to keep the country from closing down come September.
John
As soon as someone can tell me why Midland, Lubbock, and McAllen, Texas, amongst others, don’t have passenger rail, I’ll buy the equity argument.
There is no evidence that eliminating the long distance trains or short corridor trains that carry few passengers would kill passenger rail where it makes sense, i.e. NEC, Southern California, Illinois, etc. Killing these money losing trains could, as an alternative scenario, free up monies to be invested where passenger rail has a reasonable probability of covering its operating expenses and maybe in time its capital expenses.
Well, if I may share another two cents. Congress determined that we should have a national passenger rail system. What we have now is marginal, at best. Creating a truly national system requires intelligent growth of routes, but not necessarily sticking to the greatest financial drains. Surely, for example, we can agree that there is demand for Houston-Dallas service, and trains extending to Corpus Chirsti, the Lower Rio Grande Valley, Abilene, Lubbock, and Amarillo. More service tends to spread the overhead, increase ridership, and improve feasibility of all the routes. Right now we are stuck in second gear. Congress should begin growing the system or enable Amtrak to do so. It is urgent that somehow we build up the national passenger rail system or lose even the appearance of a “national” system. And, once it’s gone …
I picked up the equity argument from the Brookings Institution report, Sam. And I agree. Some places get more equity than others. But it seems to me that this is also a new day for Amtrak. New trains may come along but in order for them to do so there will have to be state funding.
John
Since the routes you mention are all in TX (not exactly a poor state) why doesn’t your TXDOT come up with funding for the “state-sponsored” routes? Several states, such as Illinois and NC, notably, have done so to add or expand services.
Agree that the Carolinian te is better for the daytime as it serves much larger population centers . however there are several problems.
1. Route NYP - ATL is 962 miles at present by way of Raleigh.
2. Present schedules would require an ATl departure of 2:00 AM and arrival ATL 1:00 AM. Since NC presently supports the train I do not believe they would agree to different times as the WASH times are very desireable… ? That would require another train set for the ATL turn.
3. Of course might be able to extend beyound ATL.
4**. Once the Raleigh - Petersburg HrSR is implemented approximately 1:30 reduction of travel time will be possible.**
5. A WASH - ATL train over this route would be a good day train that could use one of the Piedmont’s time slots ?
I redid the chart for clarity. Note 2012 numbers are my estimate for Direct Cost, based on two years fuel increases and cost inflation. Click on the chart to get it full size.
It seems that the point might be conceded that there is a need for expansion but there still has to be a limit. One proxy of financial efficiency is typically if the train is moving more than 200 passengers on average.
Financially, the first test might be for the Long Distance route’s financial Short-Term Avoidable Operating Loss to be equal to or less than the financial Non-User Automobile Accident Costs ($0.036/VM) on an average per equivalent passenger mile. As it stands now, those that are using the Long Distance routes have already self-selected to not use another common carrier, so their most likely alternative is an automobile. However, they might only drive during the daytime, in shorter segments, take on more financial risk of accidents, or put up with a loss of productive time. In other words, the alternative for those users would increase their disutility of time.
My point is on a short-term basis this type of shift is comparable and imminent if the route is eliminated. Since our largest driver of deficit spending is health cost increases, it is also relevant to the financial health of the nation. In the cases where this number is too high the route should
I have to ask, and no insult is intended, as you obviously are very knowledgeable. However, do you seriously think that is the sort of argument that will convince anyone to increase/improve passenger rail services in the US, whether LD or corridors?
Good point!
Another question pertains to the PRIIA exercises for the long distance trains. If the studies are as sound as we are to believe, how come none of the key recommendations, as far as I know, have been implemented?
As per the company’s 2012 Annual Report, Amtrak will spend money when there is a high probability of a payoff. It spent millions in 2012 to upgrade its reservations, ticketing, and customer service capabilities. E-ticketing and scanning, WiFi upgrades, etc. are some of the technological improvements made by the company. This suggests that Amtrak can get the funds it needs, within reason, for worthwhile spends.
According to the authors of the Crescent, etc. study, implementation of their recommendations for the Crescent would have generated 69,500 new riders (train and Thruway
There was congressional testimony in 2011 that basically said the PRIIA improvements are on hold as even though the per mile loss numbers improved with the recommendations you had to spend a little bit more, so here we are back were we were debating if it is the sense of Congress to have the system. BTW the first test is a pretty good argument for keeping services.
Texas and Oklahoma jointly fund the Heartland Flyer and are currently studying extending it south to Austin, San Antonio, and Laredo, and north to Tulsa and Kansas City. The Texas Eagle has way over a 750 mile route already and is being looked at for extension to Corpus Christi and the Valley, sponsor unknown. A potential route from Houston to Dallas, Abilene, Lubbock, Amarillo, and Denver (dubbed Cannon Ball Express) would also be way over 750 miles in length. Plus, there are several non-Amtrak studies underway. Trust me, the TxDOT Rail Division has the potential to act (Congress cooperating or not).
TXDOT is dependent on legislative authorization for its budget. The Texas Legislature has not authorized an increase in the fuel taxes, which are TXDOT’s major source of revenue, since the early 90s. As a result the state has had to turn to toll roads to build some of the new roadways the state needs because of its significant population growth. Accordingly, it is a stretch to believe that the tight fisted Texas Legislature will fund any additional passenger rail operations in the near future?
I try to stay abreast of passenger rail developments in Texas. I have never heard any serious proposals by a person or group to extend the Texas Eagle to Corpus Christi and the Valley. What is the source for this information?