Darn right! I can’t even afford to THINK about this stuff…
I agree the future is with RC. I also believe that on board cameras and remote PC control will be popular in the next few years. I believe club meetings will be done remotely using the internet. 10-2 people from anywhere in the world could log onto one site where the layout is located. Via on board cameras, as well as cameras located around the layout each person will have control of one locomotive. Communication will also be done via the web using headsets. I’m sure the technology already exists to do this but no one has attempted it yet.
As for books in file format. That already exists. My mother in law has a Sony book reader. It is awesome. Super clear screen, a charge that lasts 1700 page turns and room for an SD card to store a complete library. She logs onto electronic books stores all over the world and downloads books. She can also “borrow” ebooks from the local library. Neat stuff!
Todd
This is funny, I was just reading the April 1984 MR last night. Great article on making corrugated siding out of aluminum foil. It also has a story on the Mojave Western by this forum’s Pastor Bob! Anyways, I was reading the letters to the editor and some familiar themes were present: The hobby is dying because everybody is getting old and everything is too darn expensive. I’m sure that the same thing will be said 25 years from now!
Why hasn’t anybody mentioned the human shrinkage machine? This way we can ride our O/S/HO/N trains around our insta-layouts and control them from our laptops that we shrunk as well! Awww, that may be a few years off.
Keith Baker
Should see the prototyping machines that are doing this now—if only they could get made a little less expensive---------
There’s nothing more certain than change and most predictions for the future of our bobby are based on what may be described as wisheful thinking. This is not to denegrate those opinions for they include natural optomism and optomism is what sustains us. It’s a younger cousin of - Hope That Springs Eternal.
What ever the future may bring to our hobby it’s a safe bet that those who have driven the hobby so far - the post war baby boomers, will have long left their models behind and gone on to a far greater cause - subject to personal belief, that is.
Those who remain will be in possession of the means to drive the hobby in what ever direction it takes. I wish all of our younger modelers all the very best in this and that those who sustain the hobby with products and services will do so as a contribution to our hobbies continuing longevity.
Personaly, I am unable to make any worthwhile predictions as to where the hobby will head off to in the future. There is too much general uncertainty in the world today that can have an impact on even the humble world that model railroaders inhabit with their hobby for us to be certain about much. All I am prepared to allow myself is that I should enjoy our hobby the best I can - help others where it is possible and turn a deaf ear to those I am not in step with.
Whatever happens in the future that determines the characture of model railraoding then I hope that it will give much fun and pleasure in the hearts of those who are left to carry on the tradition. To those who have a sense of maintining an interest in history and sharing their knowledge with others, then the hobby will be in good heart what ever aids are offered by manufactueres to make our pikes run better or more efficiently.
One thing for sure is that those who drive the various demands for technological change in this hobby will need to ensure that
Readily available, good quality sound in N-scale. Jamie
This I’d actually pretty harshly disagree with.
In my college years, which weren’t that long ago, I’d gone off to other interests. One of these was getting big into Microsoft’s Flight Simulator series. I was particularly involved in airliner repaints and a few terrain modifications. A lot like what virtual model railroading would be like. Had an undecorated aircraft with panel lines and such, that I had to “paint.” A 3D model of a building I drew in a CAD program, then textured. Laid out taxiways, ramps, runways, etc in a CAD-like interface. Then loaded it all into the flight sim. All full scale. My biggest projects were Naval Air Station Pensacola and everything within about five miles of P’cola and roughly 50 miles of the Outer Banks. Its not the same. Yeah its easier to share and other people can directly enjoy your work without having to come into my basement or look at a simple photograph. But its a damn lot of work actually. And you get to redo it every two years! Big huge projects everyone wonders about futureproofing your airport or whatever, because the next version might handle altitude calcuations or a texture differently.
FS2000, 2002, 2004, and X all had a similar engine but handled things differently. FS2002/2004 didn’t have a spherical earth and had a several trillion sided cylinder for a planet. So you could do special runway markings by placing a texture with transparency an inch over the runway to mimmick it being painted on. FSX introduced a true spherical earth. That crushed that trick right into electronic rubble. FS2002/2004 aircraft could work in X but for some reason, effects like propellers in motion wou
Of course, this always assumes that the technology and software levels are static-----I’m never so sure that it always will be as difficult—
So, the next quarter-century mark for MR will come in 2034. Let’s see. Chances are, I’ll still be alive and complaining, but getting along to the caboose of life.
The allure of wireless will dim, as more and more of the available wireless spectrum gets filled and oversubscribed with communications, garage door openers and gaming systems. Instead, those who want rock-solid reliability will return to tethered throttles.
My layout will grow and shrink several times, as children and then grandchildren “move back in” with the parental units to deal with the rocky economy ahead.
Sorry, I don’t see the battery thing. We’ll still be running on NS track, possibly treated with something to keep it cleaner and improve connectivity, but battery-powered trains will be poor performers and will eventually be rejected.
The pile of unbuilt models in my workroom will grow larger. A few of them will get built, though.
Sound will improve dramatically. The huge consumer market for personal, iPod-sized headphones will drive small-scale speaker technology forward. Our bulky speakers-in-baffles that make sound installation so awkward will give way to thin audio transducer arrays, making sound in N-scale and even Z-scale a reality, with better quality than we have in HO now.
The stuff I ordered from Internet Trains last month will finally be shipped.
And the last “Ooops” will be recorded in 2031.
Reminds me of the movie Back to the Future 3. Get rid of your track because the trains will fly. And then time travel. Of course that will explain why my Dash-8 is traveling through downtown Chicago in 1920 with steamers all around.
I can see an increased physical/virtual interface emerging. Mico optical sensors on board the locomotive will transmit and project (on multiple computer screens? holograms?) into a 3D environement for the operator who will be inside a virtual cab (that changes with the type of locomotive being controlled), enabling him to see and interact with the actual layout through the virtual cab windows.
Nanotechnology advances will produce scale-sized microbot brakemen who will walk the layout and uncouple cars.
Locos will be powered by small fusion generators hidden in the boilers & fuel tanks, providing years of maintenance-free service.
Overall I see more aspects of modeling moving closer to ‘instant’ in order to save on time and effort. That’s the way things have been trending up to today.
Loco’s will likely go wireless and be powered by small fuel cells. This would eliminate track conductivity issues and locos would mimic their prototypes by needing to be refueled.
Rolling stock will have chips to control their couplers.
GPS-like systems will be available so your computer will be able to precisely track trains on your layout. This will enhance automatic and remote operations.
Generous federal & state MRR funding and tax credits will become available.
Okay, maybe that last one is much more of a wish… [:-^]
Here we have a classic case of, “Let your fingers (on mouse or keyboard) do the walking,” versus “It isn’t fun unless I can get my mitts into the machinery.” If your tastes run to the latter, what grand new bells and whistles are added to vertch software won’t amount to a blown transistor.
On the subject of surprise situations at random times, it doesn’t take a computer to generate them. Anyone who operates with car cards and waybills can add, “Jokers,” to the card deck - anything from a herd of cows on the track to a boiler explosion… The capability has existed for a LONG time, it just hasn’t been worked up in the model press.
For the future, I see model railroading following the same path as model shipbuilding. Everybody claims it’s about to disappear, but it just keeps getting stronger and more diversified. The mere fact that toy trains (except for Thomas and friends) are no longer centerpieces in department store Christmas displays won’t make as big a difference as we seem to think. When was the last time you saw a kit for HMS Victory or USS Constitution in a toy store?
As far as specific changes, improvements, trends… I’d like to answer, but my crystal ball is all clouded up…
Chuck (Modeling Central Japan in September, 1964 - with Joker waybills)
Just remember what Yogi said: “The future ain’t what it use to be.” Peter Smith, Memphis
Well so far petty good. Since ‘85’ we’ve seen better super glues,laser cut kits,much improved electronics,such as DCC,special effects modules,programmable sound,improved LEDs for lighting effects. Sophisticated paper models, computer aided drawing and artwwork for paper models etc.Radio control is already popular with the outdoor railroaders.
I don’t think anything will replace mans need to physically build miniatures. We’ll probably always need glue and paint and tools to build our dreams with.I like the idea of a home laser cutter. There are some available but they’re not cheap. Maybe just a laser scalpel that we can burn holes in our fingers and clothes.[:)]
I think the guys who like to do computer projects are a little different than those of us who like to physically build things. Kinda like the difference between photographers and painters.
I like the computer generated operation schedules though. Helps the imagination. BILL
This I fear, is still a long way off. There has been an effort afoot for years to modify the GPS signal. Currently, the GPS broadcast is a low power-wide bandwidth signal, thus does not penetrate tree canopy well (let alone a roof). As the constellation of satellites is replaced, the intent is to replace those satellites that go off line with vehicles that are capable of the modified broadcast signal. The main trouble is that most of the vehicles currently in orbit have already out lived their projected life expectancy, some by as much as 100%. Replacing a 400 million dollar satellite that is still functioning, with a billion dollar satellite is just not going to happen quickly, if at all. The tax payer would revolt.
Further, all affordable GPS receivers have one big shortfall that prohibit precise positioning. THE CLOCK. The survey grade GPS receivers that I utilize at work each have a highly precise clock. This clock alone costs $2000.00, and these receivers, which cost in excess of $20000.00, still rely on the broadcast ephemeris file (the mathmatical orbit of the satellite constellation). The precise ephemeris file is not available for civilian use until a week after GPS observations are conducted. These two factors render recreational grade GPS receivers accurate to no more than 100 feet or so, assuming ideal conditions.
This is a great idea, and could be quite useful in many areas including model railroading. As much as I would like to, I just don’t see it for several generations. By the time these issues are addressed, there may will be an alternative method available.
Bioengineering is going to evolve us two extra arms and hands and that will make everything easier. I will predict, however, that our proverbial complaint of needing “an extra hand” will never die!
Good points - but I actually didn’t have the GPS system in mind. Ma
I suppose a local area network could be utilized to accomplish this. It could consist of two stationary base transceivers that continually broadcast their positions via radio or cellular wave form. This would allow a triangulated and corrected position to be calculated to the mobile unit (receiver equipped locomotive). This would be even more accurate with a third stationary transceiver mouted in the ceiling to account for differences in elevation. This is indeed a possibility, and a thought provoking one as well.
There’s going to be a huge glut in the used model market, and places like e-Bay will become even more popular than they already are now. The local hobby shop as we (used to) know will be dead, and the few remaining ones will rarely be “trains only”.
If the economy continues to limp along for another 20 years, I predict with a little on line work, most will be able to find good hardly-used models for a good price in the future.