Trouble in paradise…
Also announced they will serve alchol on the trains which could be risky for a Commutter Train operation but I can see the need to make money. Attached link also has another onboard tour of the train with a large restroom.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/transportation/fl-reg-brightline-town-hall-20170601-story.html
Brightline trains to run on Bio-Diesel:
We are all hoping for Brightline to actually become the first true profitable passenger train operation in decades.
But it will be a miracle for that to happen.
Perhaps the overall umbrella company will make money managing the real estate developments along the line - that may actually be their strategy to use the train operation as a loss leader to get businesses leasing office space and residents leasing condos in Fortress-owned transit-oriented developments.
If this passenger train operation turns a true unsubsidized profit - covering all operating expenses and all capital costs for equipment and roadbed plus a return for the owners - they will really have done something unique in the world.
One wonders how much of the FEC sale proceeds had to be plowed in to this endeavor to get it to an operational date, as the cash burn on this passenger train project has to be enormous.
If the Amtrak Capitol Corridor, Hiawatha and Surfliner operations need a subsidy, one has to wonder how the economics of this operation will be different.
Someone needs a ride on the LIRR or MetroNorth trains in the afternoon rush hour!
Trend for the Hiawatha Service is declining subsidy, in fact I am surprised how little it costs for all the train freqencies we get between Chicago and Milwaukee and I forecast with the projected projects next to and around the Amtrak station in Milwaukee…the trend towards further reduction in subsidy for Chicago to Milwaukee is on it’s way. Thats if they go forewards with making the current large Post Office annex to the Amtrak station in Milwaukee a retail shopping mall as well as develop some planned apartments around the station…who knows though…all that could also could fall apart. I am amazed at how busy the Bus Terminal at the Amtrak Station has become, you have to be there in the early morning 7:30 to 9:00 a.m. to see all the traffic but they do seem to serve a lot of Bus routes out of that small station.
Onto Brightline
The difference there is they are both self-insured government operations. If your a trail lawyer seeking a quick buck off a drunk driver…are you going to sue the almost unlimited legal funds government entity (LIRR or Metro-North) or would you sue a private firm (Brightline) that is more eager to settle and move on as it sees that delaying a settlement only increases future settlement and or legal costs?
I hought the Miami-WPB leg was about built when the FEC sale went thru. I assumed the proceeds would have gone to self finance the Orlando extension. Did Fortress just pay it out in dividends?
I’ll be surprised if it ever gets built to Orlando.
Question for our posters in south Florida. Could this Orlando delay be due to West Palm Beach - Cocoa taking longer to upgrade than originally planned ? Any reports of the WPB - COCOA progress ?
The delayed start up date is due to issues getting financing. They previously said that after financing is in place, then it would take about 30 months to build phase 2 to orlando. They have almost all of the permits for phase 2 approved. They recently in april started the process to formally apply for a 1.75B RRIF loan. They considered this loan back in 2013 but went instead with PAB’s which didn’t work out due to disinterest in PAB’s in general by investors. They have had some success with the EB5 visa program though. Bright Red should be delivered in another 2-3 weeks. Lots of PTC testing and signal work yet to be done. They have been cutting in new crossovers this summer.
I hope they find a way to keep the financing completely private vs obtaining a Federal Loan. If the system in Florida remains completely privately financed and it turns a profit…it will open the door to other entrants. If not, well then we are stuck with Amtrak.
Amtrak will exist long after Brightline
That could be the outcome but I am still in the benefit of the doubt phase vs throwing in the towel. If Brightline is successful it would change the country’s approach to rail corridor transportation much in the way that adoption of light rail has. Though I think the ONLY reason FEC got involved in this experiment was that their 6 trains a day or so main line wasn’t making a whole lot of money and was running well under capacity.
The reason FEC got involved was that their owners saw what they thought was an untapped opportunity. Heard that directly from a Rail America exec.
The future of Brightline may be complicated.
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If Brightline track gets to Orlando airport that service will be permanent either by Brightline or a bad choice Amtrak.
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With track to Orlando FEC can run freight trains to Orlando with a connection from airport to Florida Central RR. Trackage rights from Airport would probably be needed over Sun Rail to keep CSX from blocking access. “IF” Sunrail can make its route to airport by 2020 then that would fit ? That freight route would be faster than CSX from JAX.
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Proposed extension of Brightline to Tampa could be a game changer both Passenger and freight. That may allow the already high Amtrak TPA <> south Florida STAR traffic to boom with an early TPA departure and late south Florida departures for the Florida east coast allowing same day connections to cruise ships for out of town visitors. Could be until Brightline route to TPA is built it could contract with Amtrak to operate Orlando <> TPA ?
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Extension of Brightline from Cocoa <> Jax could make for a connecting train station at Cocoa. When the design of the Cocoa station is announced we can tell better Brightline 's plans. Again if Brightline ceases that would give Amtrak a good route.
Again Brightline’s future will determine how these options progress ?
Fortress Investment is out of the picture after shareholders and stakeholders pointed out that every passenger train venture has been a money loser.
AAF or Brightline, whatever you want to call it, has always been linked with real estate development. It is simply a means to add additional value to the real estate portfolio. As to FEC freight service to Orlando, AAF says that this line from Coccoa is only for passenger. The same goes for the line over to Tampa, I suppose. If Brightline goes under, look for a contract passenger carrier to take it over. They and FECI can agree on service and price.
The best way to think of Brightline Florida is as a horizontal elevator that connects the developing downtown properties and thereby enhancing their value. If at any time the developing properties do not meet financial expectations: insufficient rentals, sales or leases then expect FECI’s masters to pull the plug and cut their losses. The service will not be taken over by another party or the state. The contract with the vendor will be terminated, the equipment sold and the stations sold for some other use. Imagine a Starbucks with a view of the FEC main.
Tell that to the private Railways in Japan.