A new poll shows almost three fifths would oppose the bullet train and halt public borrowing if given another chance to vote.
Almost seven in 10 said that, if the train ever does run between Los Angeles and San Francisco, they would “never or hardly ever” use it.
First, look at the source of the story: Rupert Murdochs’s London based World Telegram. It therefore has to be suspecious in the minds of intellegent readers of anything. That not withstanding, there is probably a certain amount of “buyers remorse” as is noted in the story. But the results are certainly sensationalized. And besides that, it is old news; there is great concern for the real need and use of a so called Bullit Train. High speed train of some kind, yes, Bullit not necessarily. Californians to use it, probably few. But that does not eliminate its need and overall usage.
High speed rail brings to mind railroad mania in the Midwest prior to the Civil War. In the 1830’s the State of Illinois drew up maps of where the routes would go. Illinois proceeded to go into debt to build them. The panic of 1837 burst the bubble. Railroad construction halted. The State of Illinois struggled with its railroad debt.
Eventually, the economy improved. Railroad building resumed, but was largely done by private companies. Many companies did receive financial assistance from local governments through which they built.
It is doubtful private companies will build new right of ways for a high speed rail network. Will governments return to build the network when the economy improves?
The US population and politicians are in love with the term “high speed” without understanding its meaning or impact. To some it is a Bullet Train, to others it is anything that goes faster than their family car. It is intercity, it is commuter, it is what they dreamed they were doing with the Lionel around the Christmas tree with Buck Rogers at the throttle. How a segment like LA to SF fits into the passenger rail system or transportation overall, why it might be important, how it fits into the economy for the area and the country, are parts of the concept that are not thought of by most. To accept it out of hand is just as bad as dismissing it out of hand.
I wonder if there has been any thought to acquiring the coast line route from UP between LA and SF to
make that a higher speed line? From everything that I have seen, people want passenger rail service
that is clean, reliable, and on time. Deliver this service consistently could mean success. Focus on the fun-
damentals instead of what is trendy.
Even in Europe, only about 1 in 10 travelers use intercity rail - most drive there, too - so having 7 of 10 say they wouldn’t ride is a red herring.
Also, what people SAY they will do and what they ACTUALLY will do is often very different.
However, the HSR project in California is just ugly a whole bunch of different ways. I also find it interesting the Jerry Green…err…Brown is trying to stifle any future environmental lawsuits that might come up as the project…um…evolves.
Polling data that concerns a prediction of doing something (using a fast, frequent and convenient passenger rail service* as millions in Europe use every day) that very few Americans have ever previously experienced or had available is likely to have a high error margin. “If you build it, they will come.”
Polling data that concerns a prediction of doing something (using a fast, frequent and convenient passenger rail service* as millions in Europe use every day) that very few Americans have ever previously experienced or had available is likely to have a high error margin. “If you build it, they will come.”
Like asking people in 1980 if they could use a computer in their home.
Three major successes in the East which opinion polls said were not going to be patronized to any extent are Amtrak’s Downeaster service Boston to Portland, ME which has not only added trains but will be adding additional mileage by Fall. Second is the NJT River Line light rail between Camden and Trenton which became such a success that additional service had to be added nights and weekends almost immediate to its opening. Also at NJT was MidTown Direct service putting former DL&W line trains into Penn Station NY. Passenger counts surpassed predictions within weeks. SO, yeah, use polls as an idea of what might happen…but if you have better intuition, gut feelings, real understanding of people, then do the job anyway. Listen to the great Cole Porter song, They All Laughed.
When it comes to High Speed Rail - don’t even think about converting existing rail lines that were surveyed and designed in the 19th Century with the main idea being to minimize grades to enhance the movement of tonnage over the line - to minimize grades a lot of curvature and water level meandering were designed into these lines so as to not overtax the abilities of the Irish, German and Chinese human earth-movers of that era. A high degree of curvature is not compatible with High Speed Rail.
Never say never.
It seems to me that California is overreaching, as usual, and as a result will probably end up with nothing LA-SF.
Look at how well conventional passenger rail does between Seattle and Portland. Are we sure that TRUE 79-mph service, including non-stop schedules, wouldn’t work between LA and SF? You could afford to pay a lot to the freight railroads for capacity and not make a pimple on the cost of this new-built 220-mph fantasy.
Compare LA-SF with other city pairs and corridors: St.L-Chi. Chi-Det; Boston-NY; NY- DC, etc. Then get a market study and look out 25, 50 and 100 years and what do you see? Then look at your short and long term options and decide on plans.
John Maynard Keynes stressed the point that humans are not very good at long range projections. If you think long range plans work, take a look at the five year plans that were implemented by the Soviet Union, China, and Cuba. They came to realize the long range planning did not work so well. These countries broke out of their economic doldrums when they largely gave up on long range central planning and allowed market forces to work it out.
As someone who spent the better part of his working career in the electric utility industry, where the ability to project power requirements five to ten years in the future was necessary, because that is the lead time require to build a large steam electric power plant, we got it wrong nearly as often as we got it right. And we were one of the best run electric utilities in the country. If I had a thousand dollars for every power plant, transmission line, sub-station, etc. that was on the drawing boards and was cancelled because the models got it wrong, I would be well off.
Oh, I understand llong range planning well enough, as we discussed earlier, that 1) people don’t know what they really want and results from survey’s cannot be accepted at 100% accurate. But, 2) if you don’t have plans in the works, there is chaos at best, complete disasters at worst. So you have to have a plan based on the direction you think is needed based on what you know about the problem and the people.
The availability of transportation changes the market - in the long term.
Would Philadelphia look like it does now if the PRR hadn’t electrified and upgraded the corridor in the 1930s?
What would DC look like without the Metro?
Connecting SF and LA by rail is probably a good idea, particularly if you can make the case for avoiding airport and highway expansion, coupled by the prospect of new and continued economic growth along the route.
But, the saga of CAHSR is one, long comic opera or perhaps, Keystone Kops. I’m not sure which yet, but it’s very entertaining to watch!
Maybe Texas state utilities were once one of the best run but now ---- ? Why do I now read that there may be a power shortage in the near future? However this is caused by this state and its utilities not biting the bullet years ago and getting their 60 Hz power in sync with the rest of the country. ( I don’t know exactly what angle difference it is but the difference would be no more than 60 degrees ). That means Texas cannot join the national power grid at present. don’t know what would happen if they slowed down or speeded their generators long enough to get in sync. ( maybe 1/100 degree angle per minute ?? )
That does not tell me that this was one of the best run utilities to neglect this problem.
Texas is its own country.
“All of the electric utilities in the Texas Interconnection are electrically tied together during normal system conditions and operate at a synchronized frequency of an average of 60Hz. The Texas Interconnection covers most of the state of Texas.” In an emergency Texas connects with the U.S. and Mexico grids through tie lines, two of which are maintained by my former employer. I am retired.
The United States’ electric grid consists of a number of electric reliability councils. Because of its size, as well as a streak of independence, Texas set-up its own grid, with the concurrence of the federal government. People who live outside of Texas do not appear to understand much about Texas, anymore than I understand much about Wisconsin or Illinois or New York. I don’t comment on the values of places where I don’t live. Having said that, I am savvy enough to know that there are significant differences between the major areas of the United States, i.e. Southeast, Northwest, etc., and between the U.S. and other countries.
Texas has adequate spinning reserve, although like any growing state, it needs to add capacity. Texas’ population grew by 21.6 per cent between 2000 and 2010 compared to 9.7% for the U.S. Comparatively Louisiana grew by 1.4%, Arkansas by 9.7%, Oklahoma by 8.7%, and New Mexico by 13.2%. Georgia grew by 18.3% and New York grew by 2.1%. Clearly, given the growth of Texas over the last decade, it needs to increase its power generation capability. How it gets there is being debated.
My former colleague and now neighbor is the President of ERCOT. I have engaged him on several occasions over the past two years to speak to our continuing education group at the University of Texas. Without getting into all of the power gene