I was browsing through the current issue of Trains and there was a brief note concerning the decline in coal carloadings to the lowest level in years. I don’t have access online, but seems worth checking.
This is not good folks. Jobs are really scarce these days and now the EPA is going after coal mines and coal generating plants. And railroads are getting hit hard, loosing thousands of loaded coal cars every day. bnsf and up rr will be hit extra hard too if you add the opening of panama canal expansion they are going to loose containers. CSX NS wont get hurt as much, the superships will unload off east coast more and more containers.
There was a thread yesterday about BNSF running PRB coal to the Port Of Stockton for export to China. So where are the coal loadings declinng?
Year to date coal production in the USA is down about 8% from a year ago this time, at 438.6 million tons.
In 2008 at this time, coal production was 533.9 million tons. Which puts it down about 18% from pre-recession levels.
It’s not the end of the world, but it is very significant. A little more digging on the site and you could get the results by east vs west, region, and state.
Google is your friend. Figures are courtesy of the US Energy Information Agency, your tax dollars at work.
http://205.254.135.7/cneaf/coal/weekly/weekly_html/wcppage.html
Local coal fired power plants that my carrier serves have their coal stockpiles filled to overflowing - the mild winter in the area did not use the normal amount of coal for the plants to generate additional electricity for heating as had been expected. To date the Spring has been fairly mild and has not caused the need for a high amount of air conditioning to be used. When some of the stockpiles are worked off, then coal traffic will resume.
Why would they lose container traffic with the expansion of the canal?
Oddly, BNSF and UP both serve the Gulf Coast ports, and we have handled one, maybe two or so, Ok, maybe a couple of containers down here…[;)]
Unless a lot of the east coast ports do a serious upgrade, some of the ships just wont fit, and the facalities are not up to the volume levels the west coast ports handle.
UP still runs several daily coal moves to our bulk plant for export down here, and the coal power plants are getting the same volume of trains they alway have…of course, down here elecrtic consumption is pretty constant year round, we have two major seasons here, Not summer, and summer!
I believe the brief article indicated coal use was down at utilities b/c of the switch to natural gas and older coal-fired plants closing. Exports should be growing long-term, but since China is in a downtown, those exports may be down short-term. The canal was not discussed.
I know one of the UP trains is loaded into barges and heads out the intracostal to the Mississippi.
The rest goes via ocean going ship.
The canal part was a reply to Chicagorails comment about containers…silly me forgot to quote it…
The bulk material plant is undergoing a major upgrade, even getting its own yard, new load out and such, so I have a feeling the coal flow might be expected to increase…same place loads out a lot of coke too, at least 2 unit trains a day, and Shell, right across the ship channel, has its own coke plant and load out dock to ocean going vessels.
Shell is of course, petroleum coke, but one of the unit trains we get, from Sweeny Texas, is coal coke, looks like it would be used in steel making.
There is the proposed coal terminal in Oregon/Washington (it keeps changing) that keeps getting blocked, but it will eventually be built to export PRB coal to China. Wyoming’s Gov. Matt Mead is currently in China working with them to develop long term strategies for using PRB coal cleanly in their industries.
The terminal mentioned in the Trains article was Coos Bay, OR. To be used, the track would need upgrading and that would cost $ X millions.
There are two factors in play for utility/steam coal. One is the very low cost of natural gas. Power companies are burning as much as possible at the expense of coal. The second is the weather. The northeast had the warmest winter and spring on record, so even less coal was needed.
Met coal is holding OK and export coal - met and steam, is so-so.
You can read more about it at NS’s and CSX’s web sites. Look for the quarterly Wall St. presentations.
Powder River Basin coal is also being exported via the MERC facility at Superior, WI. It is being transloaded to larger oceangoing bulkers at Quebec City.
Ok, china has said that its going to build more nuclear generating plamts. The smog pollution from coal plants is bad. Here in Jacksonville Fl we are going to deepen the ship canal so the 10000 plus container capacity ships can unloed here to FEC NS CSX rrs.other ports from texas to New York are quickly deepening ,expanding for the boom comming![:-^]
The coal traffic down under is still booming. It is mainly exported to China and India. I would say the Japanese will increase their coal imports soon. The main problem the lack of infrastructure to handle the output. The ports are congested, rail is saturated, and trucks are wrecking the roads!!! And yet they want to open more mines!!!
Several things have happened with electric generation:
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Electric generation growth rate has flattened since the start of the recession.
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Natural gas prices have made that fuel more attractive.
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Tax incentives and impending air quality regulation have steered investment to renewables and natural gas.
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Several states have passed laws requiring electric companies to have at least 10% renewable in their portfolios.
None of this speaks well for coal. As old coal fired plants have been retired, they have often been replaced by natural gas. While large coal fired base load plants continue to operate, natural gas is especially useful in peaking plants and as a backup for renewables like windmills. Nevertheless, natural gas prices are historically too volatile to stay low for too long, and they are studying things like carbon sequestration and other technologies to make coal burning more palatable.
yea with china surprisingly going green there may be a reduction of coal there. Here at least some coal plants will be converted to gas. solar and wind is a pipe dream for obama,way too early, he jumped the gun!
Recently Richard Muller, a scientist and prominent skeptic of global warming announced in an op-ed the results of his 3 year study funded by the Koch brothers, oil billionaires and political activists. What’s different is that after the study he now agrees with most climate scientist that the climate is indeed warming and goes further to say that human activity is almost entirely the cause.
While some have criticized the op-ed as premature before publication and peer-review, admittedly he only reconfirms much of what most climate scientists have said for 20 years.
While Muller is still skeptical of some of the more alarmist predictions, he said if China goes ahead with rapid development using coal it will only speed up warming. Politics often ignores physical changes for as long as possible, but eventually catches up. I don’t believe the long term outlook for coal is good, but I also believe the railroad industry will be able to adjust.
57 coal plants this year and 90 more next 2 years to be shuttered… thanks president !!!
The president is responsible for the rock bottom price of Natural gas that is replacing coal?
Are you thanking him for the cleaner air or the less deaths from air and water pollution?
While you’re at it, you can also thank him (and Bush Jr) for the initiative they got going a few years ago to modernize our power grid. Have you noticed that this year, even with all the record-breaking heat, that not one community in the US has suffered any blackouts or brownouts due to high demand?
They’re having lots of fun over in India right now.