Anyone heard of BlueRay? It WILL phase out both LP´s and CD´s. The dynamic range is greater than the old recordings can achieve.
And to the DC Vs. DCC? I think some will always run DC but the Mfg´s won´t sell DC in the future, only DCC equipped. It´s the same all over. Some people like to do it old school and the majority keeps up with the progress.
I’ve embarrassed myself by positing to a discussion about the specifics of electronics, when I choose to know didly about them, so I am at a disadvantage when I try to contribute to the discussion. But, the above comment gets to the heart of the matter for me.
Why did the industry move to digital from vinyl if there was no significant difference in the final product, sound quality? Was it really driven by demand for higher quality sound, or something else? A huge capital investment in new technology but maybe only incremental progress in the advantages of the final product. Doesn’t make sense that there was demand for it, unless the consumer was convinced there was a real difference in sound quality.
The price of consumer gadgets decline over time, if the technology doesn’t change. When the market is saturated and the price is too low for the industry to be comfortable, new technology is introduced to whet the appetite of the consumer. Some define this as progress.
My 15 year old 32" analog TV still works just fine. My 35mm camera actually flips the shutter exactly when I press the button, instead of waiting a split second or two like the 3 digital cameras I’ve bought (which stinks when the little ones are opening christmas presents). And at the heart of any model locomotive beats a DC compatible motor.
Yes, manufacturers will phase out straight DC products, just like will 35mm film, and square (instead of rectangle) shaped TV screens. (all because of consumer demand, right?).
But an ominous sign for DCC is that the price is beginning to come down to a point to where it is reasonable, which spells death
I have a feeling that Blueray will have a pretty short life. Solid state thumb drives are quickly getting smaller and cheaper. Hard drives are now offered in solid state with no moving parts. I think that once SSD devices get just a little cheaper you’ll see some sort of replacement for the DVD/Blueray that doesn’t have any moving parts. You’ll just plug your movie in like a USB thumb drive or similar.
DCC will die before DC, the batteries are coming to HO but it will be at least 5 years but it will happen. Just look up atomic batteries (I am not joking and they are in use now, just expensive). Or to bring up other science they now make a black box about 8"x8" that used natural gas and can power a house, scale it down!
Why would that kill DCC? The decoder equipped loco, running on a battery power pack would simply accept DCC commands via some other transmission medium, radio for example. The basic DCC command structure would likely continue with the introduction of battery/radio control.
Actually, DCC will likely not survive conversion to battery power. DCC is a unique command control system in that the command signal is actually part of the track power. All other command control systems that I know of overlaid a command signal on top of the track power or send the command signal separately via radio. The other command control schemes are much more efficient, cheaper, and easier to implement if battery power is already being provided on board. The Aristo on-board throttles and similar schemes would be (and already are in large scales) the beneficiaries of battery power.
Back to the original question - my crystal ball gets hazy after a few years. But for the next few years, I would expect most locomotive manufacturers (Bachmann the obvious exception) would strive to keep DCC and sound as a quality differentiator with an accompanying price premium. By offering a non-sound/non-DCC, and perhaps less detailed version at a lower price, they can tack on the price premium for the extras. From the manufacturing perspective, the extra model numbers are not that much of a problem. At the retail level, the extra model numbers create inventory issues and grumbling, but I don’t think the discontent will rise to the level of refusing to carry a line.
I agree with those who said that there is a need and market for both the premium and the “cheap” locomotives - cheap being defined as within the reach of a teenager or as a Christmas gift. And there will be plenty of less committed adults (CNJ’s "
To answer your question specifically, yes, I think it will be phased out by manufacturers, but it will not be hard to find on the used market. That’s okay, DC control components are robust and tend to last forever if they are made right to begin with and are not abused. They will be plentiful. When it will be phased out by manufacturers is anybody’s guess. Decades probably. DCC control may be phased out eventually too.
It sounds as though the question is asked out of fear of what you own now possible being unrunnable in a few years, rather than out of what is best for your needs and future plans. I am of the philosophy that you buy new technology when you need it, rather than out of fear that what you have now will no longer be “supported” by the industry. If what you have is decent quality stuff in good shape, it will likely last a long time and you’ll never need to buy anything else.
Wondering to go DCC or not?
If you are singularly focused on running multiple locomotives by multiple manufacturers together, or having sound, you’ll need DCC. If you are singularly focused on detailing a scene, photgraphing it and posting it on a forum, you don’t need DCC to do that. How much of both extremes you want is up to you and that relationship should decide how you spend your model railroading time and money.
Only because I respond to each poster seperately and/or seperate different ideas or aspects into different posts.
I only brought that up because that other poster brought up clubs out of thin air regarding my comments - he assumed, I never said anything about clubs - I don’t even think about them until someone else brings it up.
I might be wrong about the conversion “rate” of existing established modelers, but its what I see among modelers I know and its based on comments from a few shop owners I know. They see conversions by long time modelers leveling off.
Sure, a few will make the switch if they build a new layout, but some will look at the big pile of reuseable hardware they have and not change for all the same reasons they did not rewire the last layout.
[quote user=“Paul3”]
FWIW, if you have two locos that run fine together on DC and put identical DCC de
Where is my shovel? For the love of God…
David B
Don’t like it, don’t play! Some of us have no lives and others had plans but the world happened (story of my day).
Don’t you think a dragline might work better?
What is this? Everyone looking for the ONE system that will be the ONLY ONE THAT WILL BE USED BY EVERYONE?
Sheeesh
Would that be a digital shovel or a manual one? and does it have sound
My parents still have a BETA machine … remember those?
And my father still uses a 3" floppy for his computer stuff … too.
Somethings we never change.
You can still get 8-track tapes with currant music too!
There is a few places that will convert VHS into BETA as well as DVD conversion. DVD into BETA
Huh. Imagine that.
My sister still has her old rotary phone in case her more “advanced” phones go on the fritz—
And is this not what lots of things come down to - those who desire uniformity vs those who desire choice?
Sheldon
It has nothing to do with uniformity. It’s has everything to do with availability. Each generation has a standard adopted that the majority of companies will produce to. Some others will co-exist but if you follow technology, the age of moving drives is getting ready to move on. I have a blueray player and have only purchased 2 movies. I continue to buy standard DVD’s because they’re much cheaper. I also have a solid state hard drive in my computer and it flies compared to the fastest disk type hard drive. The prices are dropping quickly and capacities are also growing. Some said sheeesh back when it was predicted that the digital age that we are in was approaching.[:-^]
I have a Blue Ray player, a high end DVD player, a DVD/VCR combo player, a 6 disc DC player,a double cassette deck and two turntables, and that is just on my main stereo/home theater system.
We have hundreds of VHS movies and DVD movies, as well as the previously mentioned 1700 vinyl records and 800 plus CD’s.
The point is not against new technology, the point is it is not “necessary” to completely abandon or replace the old technology if it still meets YOUR needs.
“Better” is often very subjective based on individual needs and perceptions.
Sheldon
The trouble with blueray is 1: they are more expensive 2: a movie has to be filmed in a way to make use of its powers, not all movies are and of course older ones are not, kinda the same reasons HD is just starting to take over but it is being bought more because of big size TV’s than the benefits from most shows on HD as they are not filmed in a format that allows for the better picture. Blueray will not last long enough to gain enough market share as technology advances. Remember the Beta vs VHS wars and market forces won out over a better picture.