2019 could well be the year we see the final acts at least start.
My prediction: CP-KCS-CSX starts the ball in motion, countered by BNSF-CN, which then necessitates UP-NS.
Keeping my fingers crossed for Amtrak in 2019. May they have a good year, free of mayhem and problems, and to all the naysayers I say 'take off eh!.. in a plane, don’t come back.
I hope nothing happens. Everything is still a disorganized, congested mess on all the big railroads. They should all get their own houses in order before trying to expand.
No more large railroad mergers at least for the next 2 years…if not longer. Only one or two railroads have attempted to float a trial balloon which was shot down by the other railroads fairly quickly. You need at least some ambivalence on the part of the other railroads for two railroads to merge or your going to get slammed with lawsuits and protective demands. You also probably need a White House that isn’t opposed to further consolidation and I am not sure we have that now either.
I don’t see a large railroad merger for at least for the next 2 years…if not longer. Only one or two railroads have attempted to float a trial balloon which was shot down by the other railroads fairly quickly. You need at least some ambivalence on the part of the other railroads for two railroads to merge or your going to get slammed with lawsuits and protective demands. You also probably need a White House that isn’t opposed to further consolidation and I am not sure we have that now either.
Judging by the coolness of the present administration toward Canada, I don’t see any mergers between large US and Canadian RRs. Also the large US RRs don’t seem inclined to merge at this time.
Woud tend to agree, in part, with your assessment, Miningman.
The BIG, IF, in my mind… would have to be CP+KCS. +CSX, maybe, not so much(?).
The CP+KCS(&) KCSdeM(?) would give the CPR the creds(ego?) to go up against the CNR(and its former ICRR, as a system)… By the time that happens, I would be willing to bet CSX would jump int any ‘marriage’ with, or without, a shotgun to their corporate body. Mantle Ridge still being a factor with them(?).
IF those come into play, all bets would be off, and ‘the races would be on’: At that point consolidations would become ‘a case of have to’ IMHO… It would become 'The Let’s Make A Dea’l era for North American Railroads. I would guess, that at that time, even the Short Line Railroads would be in a position to get a hand in the game, linking up all the pieces.
Remembering, that FEC is now a part of Grupo Mexico. [see link]@
The big carriers work well together now without the need of mergers… what would be the point of merging other than perhaps to reduce headoffice count? Any merger would require government approval that would likely only come reluctantly and with many strings attached.
Would be much smarter and easier to buy a trucking or a logistics company like CN just did.
I do not believe that the STB would approve ANY class 1 mergers. As Ulrich stated the class 1’s work well together. New haulage or trackage rights on connecting lines would probably be ok and would get approved by the STB.
If I was any RR wuld susect it is too late to propose a merger now as final approvals are going to go past the 2020 election cycle.
If anything, with PSR, there will be de-mergering! Selling off line segments. Got to get that money to the Hedge Fund.
The main function of the Hedge Fund…To ‘Cash Out’ ;"Taking the money, and running’. The process that is currently got Sears headed to the bankruptcy process. The viable line segments that BaltACD has mentioned, will provide saleable assets. Much as the ‘Craftsman’ tool brand has done for Sears.
The employees whose (possibly, underfunded?) programs then fall, via bankruptcy actions to the PBGC to ‘settle out’.
See link @https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pension_Benefit_Guaranty_Corporation
I’ve said it before, but I’m starting to think that for the entire railroad industry, it might be better if the large systems merge into two or three and sell off all but their main routes. Short lines and regionals do a better job of finding business. It seems the class ones, especially where PSR takes hold does better at shedding business that doesn’t fit their business models.
Jeff
BNSF has haulage rights for trainloads of intermodal from Birmingham to Atlanta and Chicago to North Baltimore, both on CSX. As CSX creates excess capacity with fewer train starts, it would not be surprising to see several additional agreements surface, such as one down the former B&O to Chambersburg and another to Selkirk or perhaps even South Kearny. At that point in time a great portion of the Eastern 1/3 of the US will be within a reasonable dray of the BNSF intermodal network, with no merger needed.
http://www.bnsf.com/ship-with-bnsf/maps-and-shipping-locations/pdf/small-intermodal-map.pdf
kgbw49 repeated what I said about all of the Class1 railroads. I model the BNSF so it would be great ift hat were to happen.
Cladreamer
Gotta agree with others… nothing’s gonna be happening for this year at least.
cool comment, Miningman and I agree, get on a plane and leave Amtrak alone. Get lost “propeller head”. I knew you were from Canada when I saw the eh!.. On every visit up there, I would end up using it too after hearing it so much. Love your country. Been many places from east to west on CN or CP, never rode VIA. I don’t really see any mergers on the horizon, I think they all need to get straightened out before they try to merge with anybody. As long as BNSF stays in St. Louis and keeps the Lindenwood Yard open where my Dad worked for Frisco, I am cool with it.
[quote user=“samfp1943”]
Miningman
2019 could well be the year we see the final acts at least start.
My prediction: CP-KCS-CSX starts the ball in motion, countered by BNSF-CN, which then necessitates UP-NS.
Keeping my fingers crossed for Amtrak in 2019. May they have a good year, free of mayhem and problems, and to all the naysayers I say 'take off eh!.. in a plane, don’t come back.
Woud tend to agree, in part, with your assessment, Miningman.
The BIG, IF, in my mind… would have to be CP+KCS.
This is what I’ve been saying for the last 10 years and it should have happened a LONG time ago. This is THE one merger that makes the most sense.
I for one doubt CN and BNSF would happen and here is why. Way to much duplicate track in the upper midwest that the regulators would not be happy with. Also BNSF is not going to be willing to spend the billions needed to upgrade all of CN to what they need it to be instead of the PSR model. NS would be a better fit and here is why. Offers seemless service to most major cities for IM shippers. They connect at St Louis Kansas City Chicago Memphis plus several other smaller cities all over the midwest. Lastly the NS out of the 2 major Eastern US carriers is in the better shape operations wise.
Since they are moving HQ jobs out of Norfolk, they can repurpose the N to mean Newfoundland. [:)]
The “Newfoundland-Southern!” Now wouldn’t THAT be something?
Maybe if the Newfoundland Railway was built to standard gauge instead of the “Cape gauge” it’d still be around. [:-^]
Of couse, we’d have to figure out a way to get this old girl up to Corner Brook or Saint Johns to “show the flag.”