The demand for cheap model railroading items must be on the increase. I have bidded on around 15 items in the past couple of weeks, with prices set at a high bid of what I would be most willing to give, and I have been outbid more times than I think I’ve ever been before. My bids are usually pretty good, I like to bid early and high, not too high, but high enough to were I usually win the auction. This new trend has got me wondering, is model railroading on the increase? Any other eBayers noticed this trend? Just wondering…
If you want to win low, you snipe. If your machine is faster than the others you can do it in the last 5 seconds and win a few. The early high bidders put the big buck people in charge, but its is still a sniper that will win the “Good Stuff”.
Just my opinion, I’ve noticed a few increases in price but it seems that the winning bid prices for the usual Athearn, P2K, and Atlas locos/rolling stock have remained at close to 2006 levels.
I’ve noticed some HO locomotives going for “lower” winning bids then last year. Just my guess, but I think it’s due to Athearn, Walthers, and BLI’s announcements of the new locomotives that are or will be hitting the market over the next several months. They feature even better detailing, paint jobs, and accuracy (the new P2K E units have a more accurate nose).
Modelers may likely be setting funds aside and so are holding out for the new models. Imho, modelers are becoming miore accutely aware of price trends and backing away from “ebay bid fever”. Especially since discount web dealers sometimes sell locomotives and rolling stock for prices lower than what is sometimes typically seen on ebay. That’s what I base my bid prices on.
For a while P1K RDCs could be purchased at internet dealers for under $25. On ebay I’ve seen them go for cosiderably higher. So it does pay to comparison shop.
I have a six BB FP45s. I won 3 of them on Ebay and thought that I had some “hard to get units”. Then after Athearn’s announcement of the new Genesis versions, I’m now considering selling 5 of them and keeping one. It’s interesting how many Athearn BB FP45s continue to pop up on ebay with winning bids ranging from incredibly low to ridiculously high.
things i’m selling never go above the opening bid, and stuff i’m bidding on just go up and up…
that said,
i’m selling plastic and buying brass. The thing to do is see what an item is selling for long term, i have a list and i write down what PFM Centennial sets are selling for, or Gem William Crooks are selling for. I bid early and a little lower than the market. I never bid near the end, cuz some ar$$whole is likely to slam bid (bid way over the actual comparative value) what i’m bidding on in the last 30 seconds. If something goes beyond what i think its worth, if even by $1, i don’t want it. I don’t care what IT is but IT will show up again some day soon.
[#ditto] [#ditto] Seriously, bidding early, if you really want to win, is not the way to go. Most auctions are won (and lost) in the last 10 seconds… by manual or sniping programs. There is a post on this from last week if you do a search.
I just lost out on an undecorated P2K GP9. I was winning in the last 15 minues, but someone came in and bid a ridiculus amount. Ebay is cheap when there is a surplus of a specific type of model, but when it is something that hasn’t been made in a while the prices begin to soar. It is just supply and demand.
Ok, maybe I should have said most “competitive” auctions are won in the last 10 sec. And of course, it is only a good deal if you think it is (meaning you are willing to pay the price and are happy with it)… I usually follow things for MONTHS and then bid a reasonable price…
I know I posted the following somewhere. I searched this forum and couldn’t find it. It’s a long-winded monologue about e-Bay buying and successful auction bidding. Sorry for the length.
Playing the e-Bay Game
E-Bay is a popular auction site, and “auction” is the operative word. The bidder who has the highest bid at the end of the auction wins the auction. Regardless of HOW the bid is placed, high bidder wins!
Other than “Buy-It-Now” auctions, which are not true “auctions”, there are four ways to secure the high bid:
The High Bid: Determine how much you are willing to pay for an item and place that amount as your bid;
The Low Bid: Place a minimum bid, then check the auction frequently and raise your bid as needed to keep yourself the high bidder;
The Watcher: Watch the auction closely as it nears the end and try to place your maximum bid just seconds before the auction ends;
The Sniper: Place a “snipe” bid at any time during the auction process and wait for the auction to end.
All of these methods can win an auction. Each has advantages and disadvantage.
The principal advantage for The High Bid method is that you place your maximum bid and forget about the auction. If you are outbid, you won’t care because you’d already determined your “maximum”. The principle disadvantage is that you almost invariably will be outbid. There always seems to be someone who is willing to pay the extra $1.00 (or LESS!) to outbid you. You will also lose a lot of auctions by pennies. Once someone knows how high you bid, they can easily outbid you for the minimum bid increment. If you go back to review this auction, you will be tempted to raise your bid in an attempt to win the auction. You will often end up paying MORE than you were willing to pay! This is folly. If yo
I will add that mathematical computer models done of ebay auctions show the sniping approach to be the one single approach that most often wins the item and pays the least. Since everyone can take advantage of one of the many ebay sniping services available, the only reason you have for complaining that you lose auctions to a sniper is that you haven’t also taken advantage of sniping. Sniping has been scientifically proven to win more auctions at the best possible price.
If you don’t snipe but bid your maximum early, all you have done is give away to your competition your interest in the item, and allowed bid fishers to drive up the price of the item with incremental bids as they try to find your maximum and outbid you.
I have won many auctions with snipe bidding and I always walk away from the auction with a smile on my face because I also paid a good price. On the rare ocassions I have been outbid by another sniper, it doesn’t bother me because I bid my true maximum for my snipe bid and they can have it for that price!
I know I posted the following somewhere. I searched this forum and couldn’t find it. It’s a long-winded monologue about e-Bay buying and successful auction bidding. Sorry for the length.
Playing the e-Bay Game
E-Bay is a popular auction site, and “auction” is the operative word. The bidder who has the highest bid at the end of the auction wins the auction. Regardless of HOW the bid is placed, high bidder wins!
Other than “Buy-It-Now” auctions, which are not true “auctions”, there are four ways to secure the high bid:
The High Bid: Determine how much you are willing to pay for an item and place that amount as your bid;
The Low Bid: Place a minimum bid, then check the auction frequently and raise your bid as needed to keep yourself the high bidder;
The Watcher: Watch the auction closely as it nears the end and try to place your maximum bid just seconds before the auction ends;
The Sniper: Place a “snipe” bid at any time during the auction process and wait for the auction to end.
All of these methods can win an auction. Each has advantages and disadvantage.
The principal advantage for The High Bid method is that you place your maximum bid and forget about the auction. If you are outbid, you won’t care because you’d already determined your “maximum”. The principle disadvantage is that you almost invariably will be outbid. There always seems to be someone who is willing to pay the extra $1.00 (or LESS!) to outbid you. You will also lose a lot of auctions by pennies. Once someone knows how high you bid, they can easily outbid you for the minimum bid increment. If you go back to review this auction, you will be tempted to raise your bid in an attempt to win the auction. You will often end up paying MORE than you were willing to pay! This
Getting back to the recent bidding trends. I’ve noticed in N-scale that many auctions have been starting at too high a price. Many of these are coming from retailers trying to dump inventory at what they think is a reasonable price. Most of these auctions expire without a bid. You’d think they learn by now.
I think the best auctions (and generally most successful for the seller) are the ones that start at one penny with no reserve. They seem to draw out more bidding activity. Good news for the sellers, and at times not so for bidders. [dinner]
I think that auctions tend to ruin things for the average Joe that doesn’t want to play games or angles and doesn’t have bottomless pockets. Some folks will pay anything to get what they want regardless of actual value. This tends to skew the market to the high end for the rest of us.
Look at the Barrett Jackson car auctions. Only a small handful of those cars sell for what they’re worth.(a SMALL handful). I saw a guy buy a Shelby Mustang(GT 500?) for $135,000. It had the wrong motor, wrong transmission, wrong rear end and a Lincoln interior. This car was only worth about $40K. Even the commentators where shaking their heads over this guy. Jerks with money like this screw up the market for everybody else. You have Mopars that where worth $25K 20 years ago selling for close to $200K today.(and cost $8K new) I know collector stuff goes up in value, but morons with more money than they know what to do with make them go up WAY faster and higher than they should.(I know…Free Market[V])
You can’t even buy some of these rusted out beaters for under $10K because the guy that owns it watched the car auction and saw what some Bozo pay $100K for one like it. This also jacks up the price of restoration parts and services and makes restoring a nice car out of reach for the average working guy. For some items, I just think auctions do more harm than good.[soapbox]
Maybe someday when I hit the lottery…