You’re talking like EMD won’t deliver in 2017 (or next year as they’re trying to…).
I think that the new tier 4 locomotives will be such maintenance head aches that all the existing will be run through the remanufacturing process forever. EMD has a big lead here, remember all those GP7 that are still out there.
Sure, a pretty big and apocalyptic speech, but Then again, I’ve seen some pretty far out model railroads. It is at least sort of comforting to know that there will always be some competition against the giant.
fact of the day : there are more alco C424’s and C425’s than U25B’s and U25c’s in active revenue service. the GP7 prediction is a good one, But it is noteworthy that while they are getting old they age well, while other engines age about as well as Disco.
“Mom, whose orange pants are these?”[(-D]
A foreign builder might step in, too - Bombardier and Siemens come to mind - but there may be others that have the necessary technology from Europe or Japan, and a robust enough machine, reputation, and reliability in the North American market (traditionally the toughest).
- Paul North.
There are U25’s in active duty, anywhere??
This thread still has not covered the basic question. Should I buy Cat stock? Or short it?
snark/on
1920s Railroad Stock Certificate: ‘Baldwin Locomotive Works’ - Pennsylvania PASee original listing |
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He didn’t say that they were. Quite the opposite.
But their survival rates aren’t really a fully accurate illustration of quality back then.
While likely true that Alco built a somewhat better locomotive while GE quickly took hold of 2nd place in the US market largely thanks to less tangible factors like superior support and motive power heads viewing GE’s future as more promising and one worth nurturing, I think their survival rates hinged primarily on a single fact.
When it came time to dump an aged Alco or GE after its 15 years or so of use back then, familiarity with Alcos by shortlines and what we’d now term as regionals played a huge factor in the long 2nd lifes that many enjoyed.
Alco was an established player in the secondary marketplace, GE wasn’t. So while the FDL might’ve not aged as gracefully as a 251 and perhaps parts support was a problem (Which probably wouldn’t had been the case had they found 2nd homes en masse like retired Geeps and Alco switchers before them did), I think familiarity with Alcos on small railroads across the country more than anything won the day for those newer examples from the 1960’s that lived on while GE’s Universal line quickly disappeared.
There are only so many homes out there for retired locomotives off Class 1’s. Alco’s legacy largely won the day for the Centuries and such that are still out and earning their keep in 2015, that survived being cast off by their origin
Yeah, about the stock, I’d say that if a foreign road ( one not in North America) purchases some power , I would get a few shares.
remember, cat is still active in the construction industry.
I was in the stock market game, and the only reason why we didn’t win was because one count him ONE nimrod invested in pothash corporation in the middle of winter. but stock in one company saved us.
any guesses?
Funny thing was, Cat decided that they couldn’t build a truck engine that would meet emissions, and left the market. The next couple years should be interesting…
A little more correctly, Cat didn’t decide they couldn’t build a truck engine that would meet tier 4, they decided it wasn’t worth the development costs to build a truck engine to meet tier 4 with so much competition in the market.
Before anyone decides I am one of those who bleed Cat yellow when cut open, let me assure you, I am far from a Cat fan for most of their products.
Cat build dozens of truck engines that meet Tier 4 every day and are selling all of them to customers who want them.
What they haven’t done is build an engine that meets tier 4 in the exact way the railroads want it to be done. Anybody who wants a locomotive of any type fitted with a Cat diesel using SCR to meet Tier 4 could have one.
What Cat decided to do was not offer a freight locomotive until they had developed an engine that met their customer’s requirement.
GE had an ES44 using SCR before they developed the current version with EGR and DPF. But GE effectively have an engine that only has a railroad market while Cat have a range of engines for a range of markets all of which are happy to accept SCR (except the railroads). So Cat can continue selling the majority of their engines (including all those of railroad size except the EMD 710) to a majority of customers whether or not railroads buy any, but GE must build an engine the railroads want because virtually nobody else buys them.
I think this affected Cat’s decisions regarding meeting tier 4 with EGR and DPF.
Even Cummins are only offering engines with SCR. The only other engine manufacturer claiming to meet Tier 4 with EGR and DPF apart from GE is MTU, who don’t have a production version yet.
GE say the
rvos1979
Funny thing was, Cat decided that they couldn’t build a truck engine that would meet emissions, and left the market. The next couple years should be interesting…
Cat build dozens of truck engines that meet Tier 4 every day and are selling all of them to customers who want them.
What they haven’t done is build an engine that meets tier 4 in the exact way the railroads want it to be done. Anybody who wants a locomotive of any type fitted with a Cat diesel using SCR to meet Tier 4 could have one.
What Cat decided to do was not offer a freight locomotive until they had developed an engine that met their customer’s requirement.
GE had an ES44 using SCR before they developed the current version with EGR and DPF. But GE effectively have an engine that only has a railroad market while Cat have a range of engines for a range of markets all of which are happy to accept SCR (except the railroads). So Cat can continue selling the majority of their engines (including all those of railroad size except the EMD 710) to a majority of customers whether or not railroads buy any, but GE must build an engine the railroads want because virtually nobody else buys them.
I think this affected Cat’s decisions regarding meeting tier 4 with EGR and DPF.
Even Cummins are only offering engines with SCR. The only other engine m
GE has received official Tier IV certification on the new engines as of I think yesterday or the day before. No long term proof, but they manage to pass the test. EMD started earlier, they also had a significantly less supportive management structure due to GM indifference, then sale, then sale again and a harder job trying to convert the 2 cycle 710. They had the 710 meeting standard in the lab. They couldn’t get UP 9900 to meet Tier 4 on the road.
Interesting and informative discussion. I have a question, though. Given the difficulty everyone has had developing the necessary technology, what if no one can produce an engine that meets both Tier IV specs and the RR requirements what then? would this open up a viable opportunity to consider large scale eletrification, or could some srt of a compromise to permit SCR or “almost” tier IV compliant locomotives to be built? Who would blink first? Or will the courts get involved?
GE’s Tier 4 locomotive is apparently now certified Tier 4. So there’s atleast one Tier 4 locomotive available…
What kind of trucks?
Cat was a major supplier of heavy duty diesel truck engines for over the road freight movement. They did exit that market.
Cat may be building engines for huge trucks used in mines, etc. But they did exit the commercial over the road market because of emission standars.
I was using the name “truck engines” to refer to the generic automotive derived medium power engines used in Genset locomotives , Navy and Coast Guard patrol vessels and indeed construction machinery and the smaller mining trucks. This includes the 3500 series used extensively in export locomotives, particularly those built in China and the C175 used in the F125 and PR43. The larger 3600 or C280 series, used in larger ships and in some rebuilt locomotives is not regarded as a truck engine. But many of the smaller engines, particularly in Europe, need to meet standards similar to Tier 4 and those engines can and do meet Tier 4 requirements, just not without SCR and urea.
M636C
As pointed out that by the poster who I originally quoted, I was using his term as he used it. I probably should have written it as “truck” engines.
Cat has had a rocky road with the OTR truck market since the new emissions regulations went into effect. as you stated they exited the OEM market for OTR diesel engines. Then they decided to market a Cat branded line of vocational trucks built for them by International/ Navistar. The emissions compliant engines initially offered for the Cat truck line were a modified version of one of Cat’s OTR engines (Cat sold the line to Navistar when they existed the market) using Navistars proprietary Exhaust Gas circulation system. That system,also used in International trucks, was a dismal failure and caused serious damage to both truck brands…
hey,
wouldn’t be a riot if Lima Hamilton, the steam king with no diesel dreams, had the tier 4 secret?
Jim
I had not heard any reports on the Donner testing, but actually got to watch the first round of tested on Donner last year. I viewed them smoking now and then which they should never do according to the Tier IV exhaust regulations.
They are still on the Union Pacific and have been used around Donner and North up to Portland for a few months.
CZ