A recent study by the Coalition Against Bigger Trucks has revealed that if truck weight and size restrictions were relaxed, intermodal and carload traffic could drop by 25% or even as much as 60% in some scenarios. As much as people may not want to see weight limits increased, it is almost a guarantee that it will. The US lags behind much of the world in terms of truck weight, with Europe having a higher weight limit than the US. You can also be sure that trucking companies and shippers will fight hard to accomplish this goal. It is essentially inevitable, but as much as it may not be pleasant, as has been said in previous comments on this forums, even if railroad traffic were to dramatically decline, road traffic increase would be manageable. This study also demonstrates the point that intermodal has reached its zenith, with little to no growth venues left and that trucking is on course to take back what little share from the rails that it lost.
Also in the news, TuSimple is planning to launch an automated truck network ahead of its fully autonomous commercial launch.
Note how UPS is a very big backer of this. Don’t expect to see their containers or trailers on the rails for much longer.
How is rail going to compete in this new environment? Every competitive advantage the industry once had is being stripped away. It is well on its way to becoming a mode of transport that is both slower and more expensive.
Railroads right now the hovering fly, waiting to be smacked down by the windshield of regulatory and technological advancement.
If they want to survive, the class 1’s will have to overhaul their entire operating and customer service philosophy at some point. They’ll need to get robust sales and service departments that actually serve the customers, and they’ll have to run shorter and more frequent trains to ensure more timely service.
The question is whether they’ll do any of that in time to avoid extinction. Bulk commodities are the low-hanging fruit for railroads, but a lot of that is going away and will never come back.
“ttrraaffiicc” posted on Saturday, July 18, 2020 10:49 AM –
How is rail going to compete in this new environment? Every competitive advantage the industry once had is being stripped away. It is well on its way to becoming a mode of transport that is both slower and more expensive.
Well, you know what they say. “Whatever is best for the consumer, is best for America”.
The problem is, it isn’t up to your and I. The trucking industry and manufacturers are going to push hard for this. Truck weights in the US are already well below international standards.
The Interstate System was originally built to handle M60 tanks and the like. Whether they are still capable of that will have to come from someone more familiar with such construction than moi.
I have wondered if the quality of road construction in the US is as advanced as it could be? It seems that it doesn’t take long for new pavement to start cracking up at concrete joints for instance.
Why is the increase in truck weights inevitable? Are not there enough other road users to stop it? Are not there locations where congestion is a problem now and would get worse if freight were diverted from rail to road? Isn’t this one case where the entire rail industry and all its friends can make common cause with the average American car driver?
Therein lies the problem. If you’re going to allow mega-trucks on your highways you’d better have mega-roadbeds to match.
Lowest bidders? Tell me about it! When we moved here in 1987 there was a stretch of highway recently built that was a magnificent road, but ten years later it looked like it had been worked over by heavy artillery!
The roadbed and surface combined on present-day autobahns is 27 inches thick.
I’ve driven most of the German autobahn system at one time or another over the past couple of decades, and I can tell you that parts of the system are in pretty rough shape. I’m not sure that’s entirely attributable to trucks, but I would imagine that plays a role.
Dang! If that’s the case the Germans sure ain’t makin’ concrete like they used to! It took direct gunfire from eight and fourteen inch naval guns to knock out some of those Normandy bunkers, and the flak towers built in some German cities during WW2 were so tough they never tried to demolish them in the post-war era, it was easier just to leave them standing.
The Luftministerium building in Berlin was so strong Allied bombs bounced off it! It’s still in use today by the German government, although not as an air ministry.
And speaking of flies hovering over freeways, you know how you spot a happy motorcyclist?
Some entity (I think the University of MD, but it’s been too many years to be sure) did a study years ago that said one semi did as much damage to a road as 6000 automobiles. Find a road with a lot of truck traffic, and unless it was recently repaved it will be VERY rough. And they want to raise truck weight limits? Not if I have anything to say about it.
The cost of road pavement such as asphalt cement aka liquid asphalt portland cement labor and other items used in highway construction has more than doubled with asphalt going up almost 10Xs since the last time the Federal Government raised the highway fuel tax in the 90’s. Back then you could get liquid asphalt for about 29 dollars a ton now it is going for about 245 dollars a ton for the liquid portion of it. Labor has gone up also in 1992 a truck hauling asphalt was paid around 70 bucks an hour for the truck total. Now they are getting almost 300 bucks an hour for the truck total. Let alone the labor of the contractor worker. Yet the fuel taxes have not increased at all at the Federal Level. Yes some states have increased it to try and do something about the shortage for highway repairs but at the Federal Level nothing ever gets done. Instead they are more worried about I swear it seems wheter or not at least right now if removing the Founding Fathers is needed from our history. My boss has flat out said he has NO problem seeing the Federal Fuel tax raised by at least 30 cents a gallon as long as all money collected from it is USED ONLY FOR HIGHWAY construction along with a redo of how highway construction contracts are issued. Instead of the cheapest bid wins how about requiring these freaking contractors stand behind their work for at least 10 years.