In a recent discussion with some older model rails, a few were of the opinion that model steamers would fade in years to come. All agreed they would never disappear but hinted that many modern modelers of the younger set were never around operating steam and in spite of cool videos and real tourist steam operations all over the U.S., many choose the familiar diesel as there motive power choice.
I tended to defend steam in the future modeler’s layouts, but admitted that far more people start out today with 100% diesel roads, mostly due to cost factors.
We went on to enumerate the various reasons why diesels are used more than steam especially in startup layouts.
#1 They are just plain less expensive at the beginner level
#2 At any given price point, a diesel will always out “realistically perform” a steam model. (Big money is needed for a flawless performing steamer.)
#3 For those looking to go DCC and convert, the diesel often has a lot more room in it that a steamer and you are not wiring to another car in tow. (Almost no steamer winds up with DCC sound and controller in the boiler!) The tender, while roomy in the big road engines can be quite small on early 1900’s engines.
#4 Diesels are familiar to the under 50 set and many have modeled them all their MR careers for the reasons noted above.
In the end, most of us felt that it would 20-50 years down the road before steamers would fade to the point that the available selection would be heavily reduced based on reduced demand on sales. We felt this in spite of the modern work in making steamers much more realistic in operation, though still a bit more pricey than a flawlessly performing diesel.
What are the thoughts of others here? Will pure nostalgia and steam’s innate coolness remain forever and support continued variety releases and re-releases? I would like to think so, but I think a lot of things that are wrong headed sometimes.