Now that demand has slumped, prices are falling.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28037960/
Hopefully Walthers et all will actually be able to put some decent sales on their upcoming models now. The price hikes of late have been nothing short of astronomical. (ie: Passenger cars and kits)
I just went food shopping -
B S
Don, I hope you are right, and that they put things I want on sale. I also hope they don’t put themselves out of business. This is a year I am glad to be retired.
Lobster is cheap.
Gasoline is cheap, but heating oil hasn’t come down much at all.
All the trains on the shelves now were ordered early in the year and manufactured at the height of the oil price “surge” last spring. What you’re paying now reflects what it cost to make the trains 6-8 months ago, not what it would cost to make them now. And, while the dollar has recovered against major European currencies, it has lost ground against the Chinese Yuan steadily throughout 2008.
Be careful what you wish for. If you start seeing significant sales on trains, it may indicate that the manufacturers or distributers are in trouble, and are liquidating stock near or below cost.
Good news ! What could possibly be good about thousands of people losing their jobs and houses, by the way Walters gets most of it’s stuff from China, leaving local manufacturers having to close. This is good news??
Relax Tatan
Never said that people loosing their jobs was good news. Just saying the astronomical price hikes of late might be put into check finally.
Well that’s one part of a depression, you have deflation - prices don’t just rise more slowly, they actually drop. Right now I suspect the drop in oil prices might affect model RR stuff more, but I’m sure retailers aren’t selling stuff the way they had hoped.
Lower prices are nice but it will be interesting to see, assuming things get as bad as a real depression, if eventually those left working end up taking wage cuts. In the Great Depression, my Dad’s Dad kept his job the whole time, but the employees took about a 25% pay cut when things got bad. I’m a state employee, our governor has announced a wage freeze effective 01/01/09. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them ask for wage cuts in the next contract negotiation.
T:
A lot of the importers (such as Bachmann) have been importing for a long time, although we have had some major MRR equipment suppliers go overseas, which annoys me more on slipping-quality grounds (looking at you, Atlas) and national-pride grounds than anything else…model railroad manufacture is a pretty small industry. A lot of Walthers’ stuff is ex-Cox and ex-Life-Like, and those have been imported for years.
We do have a lot of domestic manufacturers, especially for higher quality merchandise, and lots of imported stuff that isn’t from China. Accurail kits are American-made. Bowser kits are domestic, although their RTR cars are put together in China (which is probably a function of finding a company that specializes in hobby-kit assembly, more than anything).
Sometimes I get surprised. I just bought a Life-Like Supply House kit, and it’s from…Denmark?! Must be Heljan.
It’s actually good for American manufacturers that the yuan is rising against the dollar. Whatever economic advantage China does have (not as significant as Joe the Plumber thinks) is largely dependent on an artificially undervalued yuan.
Folks: One minor note…properly speaking, we are not in a depression, we are in a recession. A depression is a very severe recession that lasts several years. Just some excess pedantry on my part…
Well,In every life rain must fall…
http://forum.atlasrr.com/discussion/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=50308
http://forum.atlasrr.com/discussion/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=50307
Your friendly dealers and distributors won’t allow any sales that dumps old stock-unless they get a bigger slice of the pie…
Interestingly enough, before the Great Depression the word ‘recession’ didn’t exist so every downturn was called a depression. The word ‘recession’ was coined to differentiate a mild downturn from a major one like they had in the 1930’s. Anyway IIRC a depression was eventually defined as three consecutive quarters of double digit unemployment coupled with three consecutive quarters of deflation. But I last took an Economics class in 1981-82 so that definition might be outdated (much like myself.)
Anyway, I didn’t mean we’re in a depression…yet. I was thinking along the lines of what might happen if things turn out as bad as some economists predict. Was it Malthus who called Economics ‘the dismal science’?? [sigh]
Well a guy on the news a few weeks ago said, that the grocery bill won’t go back down till early of 09’. At least gas is going down. For now.
As far as trains, my hobby stores near me never have a sale (other than black friday), and don’t have any clearance prices either. That what sucks for me. I am a deal looker, and I don’t find any at my hobby stores. Now if the other companys have deals, I will look into them.
I’ve been through a number of recessions in my life, this one scares the hell outa me. I’m retired and 64 and remember my folks and grandparents talking about the depression. We ain’t near that yet! When it gits that far, you won’t be worried about completing your dream layout I’m sure. You won’t be able to buy anything, not even food. The worst one I went through was in the 70’s when my children were toddlers.
This current price on oil, I’m afraid, is only temproray, the whole world is in a downturn and there is no demand for oil, I’m sure it will rise again just as soon as the economy’s start on an upward trend. Till then enjoy while you can.
I for one don’t like it when people lose their jobs and have to struggle to put food on the table and keep their homes warm who have small children. Been there done that!
W:
Fair enough. It probably was Malthus who said that.
Somehow, I sense this thread is going to turn into a real joyride. [:D]
Awww…Boo Hoo! I hope they all go under! That’s what they get for screwing with everyone else’s economies by flooding the markets with cheap crap made by slave wage laborers and artificial government pricing. NO sympathy at all!
Our prices won’t come down due to shipping charges. All the trucking lines were duped into thinking fuel would go up to $8/gallon, so they bought futures at $4.50/gallon. Now that diesels down to $2.30, they’re all still stuck paying $4.50/gallon. Ain’t the free market GREAT!
The government needs to step in and make all those ridiculous fuel contracts null and void.(but they won’t…)
I bought my Heritage 2-10-2 last year at the best available price at the time. Now Wlathers has them on sale for much, much less than that.
Now it’s a buyers market for sure.
It’s kinda of like the good news on gas prices going down. Cheaper because no one has money to buy. While I like lower prices as much as anybody, I don’t want to see the manufacturer’s go under. I have enough stuff stashed away to keep me going for a long time, but I still like to see and buy new goodies. And cheaper prices won’t do me any good if I don’t have a job (not likely, but in this economy who is really safe).
Enjoy
Paul
Best definition of a recession/depression.
Recession: your neighbor lost his job.
Depression: you lost your job.
Slowing economy: You met a guy who told you about someone he heard about that lost his job.
May I add…
A “Recession” is when your neighbor is out of work.
A “Depression” is when YOU are out of work.
Take care,
Mobilman44
Just to be numerically picky I heard several economists mention that the ‘official’–as if one believes these guys anymore— unemployment rate is at 25% to be in a ‘depression’. I’d take that to then unofficially to be half your neighbourhood is out of work…[|(]