Now that a good portion of 2009 has past, I’m wondering if we are seeing manufacturers reduce production numbers. Seems like I’ve heard quite a few stories about sales being down at hobby shops and swap meets. It would seem advance orders would also be down promting lower production numbers. While opions are easy to come by, perhaps some have seen real signs that this has occured. If this is happening, it just might get me to pick up a few items sooner than later.
Ohman
The amount of production is based on dealer preorders. That number seems to be pretty steady. However if you notice the amount of items being offered has been reduced.
Manufacturer/importers continue to fight for market share. The marketplace continues to be flooded with over production. New old stock appearing everywhere. Governments in the Orient have a vested interest in keeping their factories humming and their labor force employed. Bachmann-Williams will be entering the market place in a big way. Rumors at York were foretelling of the entry of “K-Line by Bachmann.” Collector, accumulators continue to liquidate E/E+ supply for sub VG prices. The price increases attempted at the end of 2008 have become the laughing stock of the hobby. Quietly, even warranties are even lengthening. For the first time since the advent of the internet, prices at small and large meets (ie York) are actually lower than on EBay.
Don’t see what you want? At your price? Wait and it will come to you. There has never been a better time to be a net buyer. [dinner]
Ohman, excluding limited run items made for clubs or the rare occasion when the manufacturer states so much, production numbers have never been public information. Generally, if you notice a lot of excitement over a particular item, it might be best to jump on it rather than wait. Some of the Lionel PW reissues seem to be selling well, so for example, if you like the 2242 New Haven reissues, I think those stand a good chance of selling out. It’s a tough call for the train companies: They absolutely want to meet demand as best they can to maximize their sales without going to the other extreme and having blowouts to move remaining inventory.
Even before the recent economic events, the train companies have always monitored production runs to the best of their ability. None of them wants to spend all the money to produce a product, only to see the items having to be blown out. On the other hand, certain items need to be made in larger quantities regardless of pre-order excitement. Starter train sets and related items are aimed at new customers who are not pre-ordering. Therefore the train companies try to anticipate demand, while not going overboard. I’m sure Lionel expected the NASCAR items to sell better than they did, without the blowouts that many eventually became available at.
While higher end items seem to be more prone to cancellation by the train companies due to lack of pre-order interest, lower end items are also subject. Lionel cancelled a handful of beginner type items under the K-Line by Lionel banner including the Northern Pacific Alcos and the Burlington S-2. Yet many others have done well: You don’t see any of the other basic K-Line by Lionel locos in any ad listings anymore, such as the Erie S-2 or the New Haven Alco FAs.
And while Sir James is right that Lionel has fewer items cataloged, which the Lionel CEO said would happen to reduce individual SKU’s, many of the add on packages are being broken up by