It looks like the times, they are a-changin’ again.
http://www.modelrailroadnews.com/channels/n-scale/single-article-page/interesting-times/6fa58324da.html
Hmmm. Interesting. Seems Bachmann all of a sudden has a little more say.
What they say makes sense though. The factories are working at capacity so they can pick and choose who they deal with.
Yes, it does. Unfortunately it probably means the end of cheap inexpensive Chinese model train imports for a while. As the article says, there will probably be delays and cost increases as manufacturers scramble to find new factories to produce their work.
It seemed sort of inevitable that this would happen eventually.
At least it opens up for the other countrys in the far east to compete with China. I think that with the strengthening of the Yuan and the new attitudes of the chinese manufacturers, we will se a lot of business going to their neighbors.
Maybe even in the long run, some businesses will see that it is viable to have the production on US soil again, who knows?
Well it’s been Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia, Korea, and China. As labor rates rise along with regulations and taxes, companies move on. China is just following the same path as the others. Their workers are probably now wanting the things they’re making but can’t afford them. We’re seeing protests starting which will probably result in price increases so workers can be paid more.
Can see that happening----once one discovers that it costs money to hire extra security and stuff just to keep in business. Then that might just happen. Until then there a lot of countries still to go through—[:-^]
Clearly the age of cheap, ready to run models from China is ending, just as it did for inexpensive Japanese and Korean brass in an earlier time.You merely have to compare today’s prices (and number of emerging import firms) of imported plastic models with those of a decade ago. The trend is not only driven by the increasing cost of Chinese labor, materials, and transportation but by the growing shift toward home consumption in China rather than markets abroad.
It will be interesting to see what effect that will have on the hobby.Still emerging industrial countries like Vietnam and Brazil may partly fill the gap. Bu I suspect we will see a return to more and more North American, production, probably using new technologies such as stereolithography (European examples of which have already been featured on various forums). Although there has been a noticeable drop in the production and availability of mainstream, ready-to run plastic models, save for those offered by a few big firms, have you noticed how many small U.S. suppliers have emerged offering laser kits of structures and rolling stock to niche markets like On3? Or look at the situation with regard to track. Small North American firms like Fast Tracks and Proto-87 provide readily available product whereas others dependent on imported goods are having trouble meeting demand.
My projection is that the future of the hobby lies with such small manufacturers and not the big import companies. If that occurs, however, it will probably entail a loss of many modelers who refuse to build on their own or fine tune what they buy. Model railroading may then become more like such hobbies as military miniatures or ship building in which a smaller, more skilled subset dominate the market rather than a large body of those who buy and run ready-made equipment. Then again, if current demographics continue unchanged, there may be no model railroading hobby at all once the baby boomers pass from the scene!
If Athearn had had the freedom to produce without running afoul of the government of California, we might still have production here. Of course, if the costs of oversea production go to high, then companies will develop methods that don’t run afoul of local ordinances and production will go on.
So the parent company of Bachmann buys one (maybe the only?) supplier to one of its competitors, Atlas. Wonder how this will really shake out in the long run as far as supply goes from these two.
I guess prices will go up - again. Shifting production to another country is probably necessary, but a short term solution. The cycle of workers demanding a higher standard of living and thus higher pay seems to be quicker now. There probably aren’t very many suitable countries left to shift too and they too will quickly want higher wages. Good for them, but hard on us.
How much price increase can the American market bear? Personally, my purchasing has slowed with recent price increases. Fortunately, I have most of what I need and am just filling in.
Enjoy
Paul
All the more likely to get those of us’uns who are into scratchbuilding or kitbashng into scratchbuilding our locos even more—heeheehee[swg]
Either that or watch as more hobbyists leave for less expensive pastures----
Locos, passenger cars, Waycars (I’m a Santa Fe guy after all…to call it a caboose is blasphemy to me!)…I’m one step ahead of you as far as kitbashing/scratchbuilding/kitscratching. Been doing that for years now. [swg]
I AM afraid it’s going to make it even harder to get new people into the hobby if the prices keep rising. I’ve already had people who were interested say no way when they saw the prices of equipment.
Were this to happen, the question on my mind would be the quality of the models coming out of the new country.
For example, let’s say Altas finds a supplier in Brazil that can meet their production schedule. Given that they haven’t produced model trains before, they’ll need to learn the production and quality control methods, while they’re producing the models. We could possibly see a drop in quality, at least while the new production base is ‘tooling up’.
Model train manufacturing returning to the USA, you are kidding right?
For a moment I thought you were serious.
Please note that a lot of the small, specialty operations never left.
It doesn’t make much sense to look for an overseas mass-producer if an entire year’s output of (fillintheblank) won’t fill an 8 x 8 x 20 container.
I agree that the times are turning away from the interests of those who want to buy inexpensive RTR everything. RTR will be aimed more toward the ‘toy’ market (less detail, more rugged, simpler…) and serious prototype or protolance modelers will go more to niche-market products (many made in the United States) at higher prices. The casual modeler may move on to radio controlled tanks, or may rediscover the pleasures of golf…
Thanks to my choice of prototype, my only source of new products is Japan - astronomical prices (in Yen) and horrible exchange rate (less than 25% of what it was when I was doing my serious buying) notwithstanding. Fortunately for my budget, I have long since acquired 99.44% of everything I really need.
Chuck (Modeling Central Japan in September,1964)
I can see Kader going to----Africa!! ------
Kader as well as Sanda Kan have both been producing for European brands, such as Heljan, Piko, Brawa and it appears to me, that production batches for these companies are bigger and thus more economical and profitable. Despite many predictions, that those horrendous prices we have to pay in Europe will lead to the end of the hobby, it is still around and very much alive and kicking. To beat high prices and to maintain a customer base, companies like Piko have introduced budget lines, which are high quality, but not so high detail locos and rolling stock. Those are very well received in the market.
I doubt that higher prices will mean a terminal and fatal blow to the hobby in the US. The big ones in the game, Bachmann and Horizon, will only suffer a little, but the niche players, like BLI and MTH may eventually go away, opening up opportunities for kitchen-counter type operations producing - kits! Just look at what happened in the UK!
Naturally, this is all speculative thinking, looking into a still fogged up crystal ball. The hobby has so far survived WW II, the space age, the computer age, the gaming age. I am sure, that as long as wheels roll on rails, there will be model railroading.
Frateschi is made in Brazil so may not be a problem for them to manufacture for others.
Bill
I’m not nearly so sure of any ability in the U.S. cottage industry market to step in and replace the big boys tomorrow, since the hobby’s situation in the U.S. is distinctly different than what I think prevails in Europe these days. While virtually any European layout I encounter on the Internet demonstrates that the owner has very considerable modeling skills (just look at a few that post here!), currently the bulk of American hobbyists are far less endowed and more closely related to the less accomplished, dare I say Lionel/Flyer hobbyists, of old. Many are clearly lacking in any highly developed personal mechanical and modeling talent/skills that prevailed among most Boomers and earlier generations of hobbyists, or society in general, in decades past. This immediately limits how wouldbe U.S. hobbyists can adapt to the hobby’s future if it deviates dramatically from RTR.
There is also the problem of the overwhelming desire among so many U.S. hobbyists today that only the best will do and/or “I must have only the latest RTR version of an item”. Neither approach will continue to function very well for the overwhelming majority of middle class hobbyists if prices of plastic models begin to rival their brass counterparts…and I see just that within 5 years, or less.