Who do you think the next merger involve.
i think within the next 3-5 years it will be CN-KCS or BNSF-KCS
Untimatley i think it will be BNSF-NS-CN-KCS then UP-CSX-CP
wat do you think will happen?
BNSF forever…untill the Merger
i wonder how much longer until the government steps in? do you really think they’ll let BNSF and CN merge? that’s bigger than UP and BNSF merging and the government wont allow that. i think they like the oligopoly of things
The Government should have steped in along time ago.
I think the only mergers/aquistions to happen is class ones buying back their old excess trackage from shortlines.
I am going out on a limb but it may be two or three reginals getting together to form a new Class I. Can you say DME/Rail Link/Rail America or even ICE/Rail Link[?]
My two cents. CN and NS will purchase CSX for the routes that enhance each other and spin the rest off to shortlines such as the Wheeling and RailAmerica. In addition, after the flap is over between the Mayo Clininc, City of Rochester, MN and DME, the new line will be built and then CN will buy DME making them a player in PRB Coal.
Saxman
If you read the latest Trains, you’ll see that nobody wanted to come out a “loser” in any merger. So, I wonder if that same attitude will govern any future mergers. It isn’t size that governs who “eats” who, it’s market cap.
If you go by current market cap. Then NS + CP = BNSF. An NS + CP merger would put them on equal footing with BNSF. That might be palatable to NS and BNSF.
CN and UP are about the same size, so maybe no problems if they merge - then they can eat CSX.
Amazingly, NS + BNSF + CP + FEC + KCS = CN + UP + CSX right now in terms of market cap.
Boy, I think CSX has to be the carrier no one wants to be left with. Don, do you think we will have the next round of mergers, or do you think there is an uneasy detente between all carriers?
Personally, I am not sure what efficiencies would be gained with the next round of mergers. Perhaps you can explore that for us. You still would have System 1 having to interchange with System 2. Now, if appears that all carriers must participate, particularly on general merchandise freight. Intermodal is a different story, of course.
My sons picked up The Men Who Loved Trains for fathers day. I plan to read it soon. Have you been able to read it Don?
ed
Don:
One other thought. NS is obviously the major carrier in the east. No doubt. But, I believe the Kansas City - Fort Wayne line is an amazingly strategic piece of ROW. That line will give a major advantage to whoever pairs up with NS.
Are there any thoughts to expanding capacity on that line?
ed
I don’t see any mergers on the horizon. The timing just isn’t right. Customers are complaining too loudly about the lack of competion and being captive. The only thing that I see that looks good at the present time would be a KCS/ICE/DME combination. The KCS gets bigger and a route into Chicago (not a very direct route though) and the DME gets some financial backing for the PRB expansion.
CC
Who knows what the timing might be? NS has a new chairman, so I’d suspect he’d like to get his feet under him before discussing any mergers. Also, times are good, but most RRs are having capacity problem and are othewise preoccupied internally.
If I had to bet on anything, I’d say maybe look for a recession to drop stock prices, ease congestion and give the RRs a need to look for cost cutting. Maybe someone would start the ball rolling then.
Me? I’m hoping for at least 3 more years, then maybe somebody would offer me a couple years service credit and severence to go away permanently. But, unfortunately, mergers are not about ME…
Don:
What would you do?
YOu and I are the same age…and I can see myself at my job another 10+years.
I guess we are getting to that age when “early retirement” or “buyout” is mentioned.
ed
I think that any future mergers are going to be srcutinized like the plague because of all the shipper complaints. Another class 1 merger between major RR’s will only trigger mergers by class 1 competitors. That leaves the U.S. with 2 mega railroads, and I think the screams of monopoly will begin to be louder at that point.
And if all the class 1’s merged the combined road would have to be called Amfreight:)
KCS could get with the shortlines in Dallas Fort Worth with Fort Worth’s new agreement with Texas & Pacifico… future Mexican income
I don’t think we will have any mergers for a long time. The dust is still settling over the CR break up. Just my [2c] worth.
I think that the next big merger will be Maersk sucking up CSX, and Hanjin assimilating Union Pacific (serve them right for once)
Hanjin Pacific? Armor yellow and crimson, of course. [|)]
I think mergers of class 1 railroads are now a thing of the past. I can see more haulage contracts being signed instead. Just my [2c]
Scary thought, my friend. [tdn]
Thought you might like to read this.
Neal