A poll:
When do you think the hext big merger is comming, and who will it be between?
State who the partners are, and when you think it’ll happen. Any additional comments are optional.
(I will post my vote seperately.)
Here’s my vote:
BNSF+CSX. Santa Fe Super C route plus the Water level route.
Timeframe: within 4 years, (by 2006)
BNSF is the clear dominant railroad financially, and has allready shown it was willing to make another merger. Merging with an eastern road makes it the first true transcon, and denies rival UP some revenue in the process.
Recent anti-merger comments made by NS, plu the fact that CSX Chair Snow is holding onto HUGE ammounts of stock options (in comparison to other RR ceos,) suggest that CSX is poised for a buyout whil NS has adopted a dont-rock-the-boat attitude ala *** Davidson.
That’s my two cents, anyway. What’s your vote, and why?
I always kind of thought that when the dust settled it would be BNSF+NS+CN and UP+CSX+CP but you’ve really done your homework on this. I tend to think 3-5 years for MEGAMERGERS:THE LAST SEQUEL.
I agree with others who posted in earlier threads that it would have been better if we’d had transcontinental mergers in the nineties and wound up with three(or four) supersystems rather than the two(maybe three) we’ll likely get.
The first one I see may be the breakup of the KCS. I predict that the BNSF will get the east-west KCS Meridian sub and CN-IC will get the north-south KCS.
As for the big one, I still believe BNSF-CN are very friendly and NS is the likely partner, but your CSX facts could be on track.
I predict BNSF-CN will start the big merger process with either NS or CSX within 2 years.
UP would take CP and the one BNSF did not select. UP will hold out as long as they possibly can and do everything to stop mergers.
The big four are definitely dating very heavy at the present time and marriage is only a matter of time.