A story in today’s NewsWire quotes a Superior, Wisc., newspaper as reporting that a “downsized” Northern Lights Express project, of which we’ve heard before, would feature FOUR round trips daily between Minneapolis and Superior-Duluth, Minn., with four stops and AVERAGING 60 mph. Ridership is projected at up to 800,000 passengers a year.
“Downsized”? Gosh, from what?
This level of service would surely be unmatched anywhere in the U.S. outside the Northeast Corridor and maybe, one day, Chicago-St. Louis. My questions for the Minnesota Department of Transportation begin with where they think they’re going to find 274 passengers for 2,920 trains a year between Minneapolis and Duluth. I’d also like to know how they think they’re going to manage that 60 mph, start to stop, on this old freight-only line.
These SWAG’s are trying to get the numbers high enough to justify the Federal expenditure. This might be the case where the ridership cannot be estimated until they start running the train. I hope this line can be reestablished and we can see if it succeeds. This is the modern version of statistical studies when wild guesses are used to justify the expenditures. In years past, one would establish the train and then continue it it if the riders show up.
Please explain how such a service makes sense. Duluth itself has a population of only 86,265 and in decline since 1960. Duluth (Twin Ports) MSA has a population of 279,711. The RoW is inadequate; it is paralled by I 35 and there are few communities of any size in between.
Amtrak’s ridership projections of 750,000 riders the first year with just 4 frequencies of 90 mph trains with anticipation ridership will hit up to 1,000,000 with more trains. Most annual support costs recovered from fare box…similar performance to current Chicago-Milwaukee corridor. Here is the full story:
As I posted long ago somewhere in these Forums, Amtraks overnight North Star train to MSP from Chicago and Milwaukee was popular with business travelers to the Twin Cities because the departure and arrival times to Chicago were pretty convienent… Departure from MSP to Duluth was not all that great so they could not show competitive figures MSP to Duluth. So with these new corridor trains with costs shared between Wisconsin and Minnesota 50/50, it’s thought both states could create what amounts to a self sufficient cooridor with minimal annual subsidy.
If the projections are correct, it would improve the Economy of Duluth / Superior by making them more accessible…more companies would be attracted there by frequent trains to the Twin Cities. Ultimately thats what has both Wisconsin and Minnesota salvating.
My own opinion is they probably have the traffic in the Summer because of tourism and rich folks from the Twin Cities accessing their Summer homes up there. Winter…I would be real curious where the traffic is comming from.
So here is the 1979 schedule on the former Amtrak North Star (see link below). Note the sleeping car service and the very convienent times departing Chicago and arriving the Twin Cities, business travelers loved the setup. Later the train was cut back to just Twin Cities to Duluth only service and the departure times from the Twin Cities to Duluth and vice versa were only changed slightly…not a lot of experimentation with more convienent times departing the Twin Cities.
I get the idea that much of this is not ‘end-to-end’ traffic. I also wonder whether roads in this corridor might be so poor that a good 90-mph-plus service represents a reasonable alternative for many trips that would otherwise ‘not be taken’.
On the other time, note the very significant invocation of the word TIGER in this report. If you’re going to apply for grant money quick, it makes sense to start with good-looking approximation numbers. Explain exactly where the folks are supposed to come from after the grant award period, perhaps…
I agree, hate to say it but the Amtrak numbers also seem a little suspect to me but the Twin Cities is a rather large metroplex. No idea what is up in Duluth and last time I was there it looked a lot smaller than Green Bay, WI. Green Bay at least has both paper mills and small to medium sized ship building just to the North so Green Bay and just North…plenty of industrial…sucking up raw materials. And then there is ore mining even a little further north of the Shipbuilding.
I think a better bet would be restoring passenger service to Green Bay, WI via the Fox River Valley (Fond Du Lac, Oshkosh, Appleton).
From MSP (a large metro area) to Duluth (metro area <300K) is only end to end. If you examine a map, you will see there is not a whole lot between the two metro areas. Once you leave the TC, might as well run non-stop. The existing lines are not anywhere near a 90 mph condition, not even 79 mph.
Interstate 35 is a pretty good road running parallel.
Makes me really, REALLY want to see their data and their assumptions.
Specifically including whether they expect the 90 to 110 mph upgrading to be as (relatively) simple and cheap with modern equipment, materials, and techniques as some of the work in Illinois was ‘supposed’ to be…
Exactly the point. Having driven it, this a very pleasant two hour road trip and is rarely congested except near M-SP.
I like to see expansion of train travel between large metro areas, and the pleasant city of Duluth does Not qualify at this time. There are many other markets that deserve preference for public or private investment.
There is an Indian casino at Hinckley, about midway on the route and popular with Twin Cities people, on which a lot of hopes are pinned for ridership. The tribe may even have promised to help with sponsorship.
Two glaring instances – yet there is no money for correction, even if Amtrak had the initiative to seek it.
There is great disagreement about the proper role of government. Amtrak is one case in which – looking at support for highways, airports, waterways, other transportation what-have-yous – and given the ridership support of existing Amtrak services – I would be in favor of a big outlay, perhaps one-time, to give it a little wiggle room to fill in gaps in the map as above.
I, for one, would rather borrow from China, if necessary, for a tangible public service than for yet more money for the endless entitlement ratholes for the middle class and otherwise. (Two-thirds of the budget and growing.)
Casinos use chartered buses to bring folks into casinos from the TC for free. There is a huge one in Red Wing but folks don’t take the train there, they drive or take the free buses. Unless the casino is right on the RoW, it is unlikely that would generate much traffic.