I wanted to ask:
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If people are spending more or less on Model Railroading?
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Do you think the Hobby is shrinking?
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Do you think the 2010 will be worse or better than 2009?
From my views attending the large Weaton IL show in the fall and early winter, the big ticket items like locomotives were not selling, but we were selling more freight cars, buildings and scenery materials that made up for most of the loss of locomotive sales. The engines that were selling were items preordered earlier in the year that modelers had budgeted for. The spur of the moment sales of engines were not happening for the most part. I attended this show with a friend that operates a brick and morter hobby shop here in town, and still sets up at some of the larger shows. We normaly take the newest in Athearn RTR and Genesis in stock, along with a small selection of Walthers, Roundhouse and Bachmann, all RTR stuff. We leave the kits that are left in stock back at the shop as a draw to get customers into the retail shop later. I hope, as does most everybody else in this country that 2010 is a much better year in both job creation and stablity in the economy. Lets pray that home foreclosure and oil prices stablize as inflation in those areas threaten to derail the recovery of the economy. The shinkage is the loss of modelers that have passed on to the next life, others that have become priced out of the hobby due to rising costs and the failure of the younger generation to get intersted in our hobby. I hope this trend reverses and more younger people get into the hobby, I can say its definatly a nice relief from daily stress to just spend an hour or two in the train room working on projects over the winter months. The summer time is taken up by outdoor activites including my antique garden tractors and railfanning (depending on gas prices!)… Cheers Mike and Michele T
I think in general people will be spending less or buying fewer high ticket items.
is the hobby shrinking, i dint think so, i think that there are opportunities for people of every kind to model. what is shrinking is the number of manufacturers of equipment and the quality of the equipment (based on other threads).
as for this year, i think it will be one of retrenchment, economically. I think that Quality issues will continue to dog the manufacturers and if these issues aren’t addressed then there could be fewer purchases in the long run, hurting LHS, manufacturers and hobbyist. one thing that might help is the experimentation and use of soy-based bio-plastics if feasible. this could lower costs and be renewable, giving more farmers work
- I do believe that spending on our hobby is different depending on the “type” of modeler you are. Not trying to get into the “definition” of these types, but “Collectors” and “Builder/Operator” types have different purchasing habits. Sure, many of us are both to some degree or another.
When I worked in a hobby shop and managed a train department, I knew my regular customers, their style of modeling, their “position” in the hobby. And their spending habits followed obvious patterns.
Collectors buy everything they like to the limit of their hobby budget, so in good times (at least their own personal good times, regardless of the overall economy) they spend a lot.
Those who are more focused on the specific layout building plan, spend based on that plan. They seldom buy on impulse and usually don’t buy unless the item is “what they want/need for their layout plan”.
These modelers make large purchases, sometimes quite surprising large purchases, like asking you to order enough track for thier large new layout - “get me 200 pieces of flex track, 10 #6 rights and 18 #6 lefts”, etc.
They are usually people who plan their purchases, and have the money set aside well in advance. So, their purchasing seems less effected by the economy, as long as their personal situation is stable.
Collectors on the other hand, hear the market is down, and spend less, knowing their “income” may be about to shrink.
So I think collectors will buy less, buy modelers will continue to plod along, buying what they need.
- No, the hobby shifts and has ups and downs in popularity and age group interest, but is doingjust fine.
The large scale and t
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I was at a train show last summer and the crowd seemed to be buying a few things. This show is rather small, but there is quite a following.
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I don’t know if the hobby is shrinking or not. I saw a TV show about how when Lionel was hurting in sales, it was based on the fact that more people didn’t like trains. I think today there is a resurgance of train traffic and volume. I hope this hobby will reflect that.
I read something a while back that in the 1980’s, video games would make all other hobbies pretty much non existant in 25 years. That didn’t happen. Not even close.
I have seen people that are in their late 20’s who are getting hooked in model railroading. I’m 24, and I was at the same train show and saw about a fourth of the class I graduated high school with. We had a great time and talked about the different railroads we like.
- I can’t speak if they’re will be tough times or better times later this year. I, myself will be purchasing about 4-6 new locos this year because the manufacturers are offering models that I want.
Monitoring the job situation there is no doubt that a lot of well paying manufacturing jobs have disappeared, take a look at the auto sector. The service industry has taken a big hit as well.
Unfortunately the majority of new jobs are not well paying jobs, most are near minimum wage levels. It is not uncommon to see young people with two or even three part time jobs trying very hard to earn a living.
Our disposable income is shrinking, there will be little left for expenses over and above our necessity items such as food and shelter.
The economy will take a long time to recover. Hobby items will take a big hit in the next few years.
- If people are spending more or less on Model Railroading?
Some,but,I think the majority is still buying at a decent pace.
- Do you think the Hobby is shrinking?
I don’t think its as popular as it once was but,there still seems to be a interest in model trains by the general public.
- Do you think the 2010 will be worse or better than 2009?
Seeing the announce new models and the monthly re-releases yes,it looks like another good year ahead of us.
My LHS seems busy, probably more over the last few months than it was at the same time last year. The owner said he was doing well, and seemed pretty happy about his level of business. Even six months ago, I could see that he was a bit worried about how the economy was affecting his bottom line. He is still able to carry some part-time help, which might not be the case if things were worse.
At a show in the fall, I talked with a vendor. He said people were buying small things, but not larger items. So, that sounds like the enthusiasm is still there, even if the dollars aren’t. When the money comes back, I expect the modelers will still be around.
My guess is, most of us are aware of the need to maintain a sound financial basis. We aren’t the type who speculate in real estate and try to “flip” houses for big profits. Although we spend on our hobbies, we tend not to put ourselves in debt over it, or buy break-the-bank items like boats and cars any more than absolutely necessary. So, when the speculators fell from grace, we weren’t among them.
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People out of work and those worried about being out of work of course spend less. With the sharp rise in unemployment along with wage cuts or furloughs in places, I would imagine a number of model railroaders were affected and spent less.
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No, the last train show I went to seemed to have more people than usual. Don’t know how well sales were though.
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I think things will get (and are getting) a little better in some parts of the country. But I think the midwest will have a long recovery.
Paul
Yes, that describes me for the most part. I have a general overall plan for what I need and only “impulse buy” stuff when I see something that is a good deal and it fits into my overall plan. Or else I do a lot of homework, do my best to find the absolute best prices for a bulk purchase, and then save my money accordingly. For some things that are really expensive, I often figure out a “by the month” sort of plan-- and buy a little each month toward that goal.
That said, I really wish the cost of railstock was cheaper. It seems seriously overpriced, IMO.
John
My impression is that we may be headed for another dip. The markets are still volatile, currency speculation is rampant, no one knows what PRC is going to do with the USDTrillions it holds, money is still tight for most people, and cars, printers, computers, furniture, mattresses, and appliances break down and have to be replaced. Items costing $500 and up are distinct challenges for a lot of people out there.
One expert says buy all the gold you can get, another says gold’s a big mistake. I don’t know if the rate of bankruptcies is high, but I imagine it is pretty much on pace at this point. There is a lag between the time when people cash in on bonds and savings, or pension funds, and the time they have to throw in the towel. Many can last a year, and then gasp their last buck. They would be reduced to a few dollars just about now.
Eventually the banks tighten up a lot, start calling loans to finance their own debt/liquidity ratio problems, and they raise interest rates. Governments that print money create problems for those who import goods because it takes more of that now-devalued currency to pay for the imports.
Etc, Etc,. I would like to be hopeful, but I can’t see many positive signs anywhere close by.
-Crandell
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In my area of the U.S. it’s hard to tell being we only have one LHS. I only go there for paint and scenery items. I get my big ticket items via mail order and didn’t buy any in 2009.
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In my area we have one model railroad club. The were using a building owned by the city and were told to leave last year. Rumor has it that it was a political thing…I don’t know. Anyway they were offered a spot at one of our local malls. I went to visit the new location and a member said that their membership has dramatically increased because of the visibility in the mall. I did notice alot of passerby interests during my visit. I heard nothing but positive comments from the visitors. So I think interest is growing.
3.I know a few people in my area associated with manufacturing and construction businesses and the overall consensus for the 2010 economy will be based on the results of pending legislations.
More likely the TV writer didn’t like trains and was filtering facts with his feelings. Lionel is seeking to merge with a recently-weak European firm, so they can’t be hurting too badly.
In the late 1950s/60s, slot cars were supposed to usher model trains to oblivion. Believing that rumor hurt several manufacturers who diverted assets to the slot side only to see the bubble, and their investments, go Pop!!! [IIRC, the rumor was started by an Aurora rep at a trade show - and obviously didn’t take the very different mindsets of model railroaders (who cooperate to run the railroad) and slot racers (Compete, and win at all costs) into account. Those who didn’t recognize that critical difference accepted the premise - and suffered the consequences.]
So much for the theory that the hobby of model railroading will die off when all the old modelers are carted off to the mortuaries. Just out of curiosity, how many of those youngbloods are fascinated by all the visible moving parts of a steam locomotive?
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- I can’t speak if they’re will be tough times or better times later this year. I, myself will be purchasing about 4-6 new locos this year because the manufacturers are offering
I can’t say overall or generally without any statistics or numbers. So the following are impressions based on personal experience and observations.
We bought our “settle-down” house in 2007, as prices were starting to drop. Presently, we’re probably about break-even - we owe what the house would likely bring. But that means no equity. 5 months unemployment did a number on the savings, and taking a 40% pay cut in the new job certainly slowed our regeneration of the savings.
We put ourselves on a path to get debt-free except for the house. We’ve been selling everything that doesn’t have a specific purpose in the near future (1-3 years). This includes train stuff. From selling on eBay, I would say HO prices have held up reasonably well, but 3 rail O has not. Once again, I proved my bona fides as a charter member of the Buy High, Sell Low Club. I bought some postwar Lionel at peak 1990s prices, and took a bath selling it over the past year. At least I enjoyed it when I was using it!
And I agreed to cut my hobby budget in half until we are debt free. But I have enough modeling and layout projects in hand to keep me busy for several years. The budget buster I foresee is the tools I will want/need but don’t have.
My observation is that the 3 rail O market is saturated with new Chinese production that just is not selling in the expected quantities. I have been expecting the same to happen to the HO RTR market, but haven’t seen the evidence yet. I get the feeling that the HO importers have been scaling back both new items and size of production runs to make sure they don’t get caught with inventory they can’t sell. Again, these are my observations - I have no numbers to back them up.
The LHS seemed to have a reasonable Christmas season. And certainly having the National Narrow Gauge Convention here created a sales surge through the fall for both the Denver and Colorado Sp
Even if just for once when these sorts of questions pop up, it would really be nice and actually informative to see something offered other than the usual baseless personal opinions…which generally goes against the evidence anyway. There are facts and figures that do indicate the hobby’s trends, both in the past and currently and it is those that should be cited.
- Unemployment figures indicate that around 15%-17% of Americans (that’s a combination of the published monthly unemployment numbers, plus those that are off the rolls because they have either exceeded the limit, or given up looking for work) are currently without jobs. A very similar number should therefore be reflected in the hobby with the inability to spend in the purchase of new items.
Likewise, compare prices in your 2010 Walthers with the previous year and you’ll notice significant price increases almost across the board. In a troubled economy this can only mean hobbyists will spend much more carefully and less overall as most worry whether they’ll continue to have a job . And who else here has noticed just how many hobbyists on various forums are admitting that they are currently out of work? How do you think their hobby spending habits will be re-directed?
- Evidence for the hobby’s contraction is very evident and has been for a long time. By example, this forum instituted new operating software a few years ago that required all forum participants to re-register. The number of registered members was over 200,000 before the change-over. Currently the nu
CNJ makes valid points. In my case, at age 73, I have accumulated and modeled in HO since 1957 or 1958, I forget which it was. I was in a position to make a fairly decent salary all of my life, and while I didn’t spend as recklessly on other things, I did/do buy a fair amount of model railroad equipment over the years. My wife also works. I have been retired since 1996 from the Santa Fe and then the Federal Reserve in the computer field, and because I hold theological degrees have also worked in the pastorate, terminating my last in 2008.
That said, with my home paid for, with all bills paid up, I have been able to spend more than the average on my hobby. But now I have reached the point where I have an over abundance of equipment, and a finished HO layout which I now operate, but don’t add much to. Therefore, even though I have inflated the purchasing figures quite a bit over the years with my hobby spending, that is coming to an end. We are traveling more, and I really have more than enough equipment to hold me the rest of my years.
I don’t think I am necessarily an exception, there are other retired guys who have had the same fortunate circumstances, but we will be dying off and the younger adults are going to have less spendable income than we had. So, the hobby dollar will shrink, kits will become pretty much extinct, and I suspect less RTR stuff will be purchased as younger modelers downsize, or reduce spending and plans.
Bob
I can honestly say, I’ll be spending more. But then again, I just reenetered the hobby with my 12 yr old son right before Christmas.
People that are fearful for their jobs aren’t spending money on anything. Fortunately a lot of the hobby seems to be “older” people, read as retired. My father has entered the hobby and is spending money like its going out of style, but he has a budget and his money is there and his to spend on fun. My job is safe as only a few people can do it and it has to be done. Whereas, we have tightened our belt, we are spending on this hobby for my son’s interest and to get him off video games. The LHS (2 Hours away) seems to be very busy with the cash register doing a steady ring. I have put over 2k into it since November,(Christmas bonus), now its time to build some of the stuff we bought, but I expect to easily spend another 2k this year starting with a DCC system this summer.
Speaking for myself personally and from a conversation I had one day with the owner and one of the guys at my LHS sales are definitely off. These days like many I don’t have a lot of disposable cash but what I do have is an excess of model railroading stuff that I no longer want nor need. So as a general rule I don’t touch house money for any of my hobbies. I have a side business for that as it’s a hobby and not a necessity if I need something and don’t buy it right away oh well some day down the road. I am in no rush to finish the layout and have a ton of stuff to keep me busy. The other side of the coin according to the guys at the LHS is a great number of their customers are retired or close to it and don’t have things like young kids or mortgages etc. to be concerned with so for them things are pretty much statuesque, but with the economy as unstable as it is I can’t see people spending like they used to. One of the promoters of a train show had told me that vendor attendance was way down last year and was hopefully going to be better this year. I guess the determining factor is at what stage your layout is. If your in the building process and you need a lot your going to be not as willing to spend as often as the guy who has the completed layout and is only looking for little this and that detail pieces.
A lot of or club members are stretching a buck on their home layouts as well as looking for ways to save on the club layout. We are pretty lucky in the sense that we have a good cross section of craftsman and sources for material As policy when ever we can make something rather then buy it we make it just to keep the cost of the hobby with in reason.
Here, over the Big Pond, the situation of the hobby may be slightly different, compared to the US. People are definitively spending a lot less on their hobby, at the same time the industry is constantly increasing prices. An average of $ 500 for a HO scale steam loco is just too much! This has led to a number of well-reputed companies like Marklin/Trix, Fleischmann, Faller, LGB and others to develop severe financial problems or even close down. Companies, like Piko and the resurrected Lima, who have started budget lines, are enjoying rising sales, though - an indication, that there still is a market.
As my own business is a victim of the financial crisis, I will be spending close to nothing on model railroading this year. Most of my plans have been put on hold until the situation improves.
The hobby is, despite the overall trend, not dying. Piko´s budget line of well engineered, but not so detailed locos, is attracting new people to the hobby, and fosters kitbashing and detailing. A number of small businesses have come up, catering for this market. Model railroading still attracts the masses, thanks to Miniatur Wunderland in Hamburg, Loxx in Berlin and many more model railroading shows we have in Germany. However, I´ll foresee the market to shrink in terms of market players. Many a manufacturer will go out of business or will be bought by bigger ones, like Roco, who just recently acquired Fleischmann. In the end, I just see Marklin, Roco, Piko and the Hornby group around, with some smaller makes catering for the collector - makes like Lematec, MicroMetakit, Weinert and Westmodell. Those a hardly known in the US.
In 2010, there will be no improvement over the bad results of 2009. The global financial crisis has yet not fully reached the job market, and we expect the number of unemployed to rise sharply this year.
Here in southeast Michigan there are a number of train shows put on by schools and model railroad clubs, about 1 every couple of months now. Admission to these shows is only a few bucks. Yesterday I went to a show in a public high school that was just jammed - I waited 20 minutes to get in and I arrived 20 minutes after it opened - and there were multiple people taking admission. When I left a couple of hours later people were still parking farther away than I parked.
A lot of younger people and families with little kids in which Dad was carrying a load of scale models and the kid had a bag of Thomas trains. This is in an area which the measured unemployment is nearly 15 percent, and also would have a fair number of folks who are off the rolls.
It could be you have people with more of a stay at home hobby as opposed to trips to Disney World…
George V.