Up here we seem to be having some interesting things happening. In the first week of January there was a trainshow in Woodsstock ON. Well attended, but not too many actual buyers by the looks of things. Of course I left with a pile myself but what else is new[:)]
Generally though, I do think there may be something of a contraction we’ll still see in terms of the job market in some areas but overall it may not be as bad as we seen hitting us here. St Thomas ON, for example, is looking at about a 20% unemployment rate–due in part to the closing of several auto parts firms–but there are signs, as well, that there is interest in a few companies to set up in St Thomas.
As for what’ll happen with the hobby, I’ll just say that certain characters did say last year things about it getting rougher–as well as getting pricier—and regardless of how often the inflation calculators get flung around here—when one sees whole communities losing jobs all over the place, and you seen a reduction in your own hours hence pay, don’t think that a mere inflation calculator is going to soothe ruffled feathers.[:-^] We are still, afterall, here, now.
I won’t opine about the state of the economy but I will relay what I do know.
In 2008 I was not involved in the hobby. In 2009, I did get involved in the hobby. I am in my early 30’s and one of my other friends is a model railroader, much further along than I. However, I do notice that when my friends who have young boys are over to the house, they see the model railroad stuff and immediately start asking questions.
There is an interest in younger men but the hobby doesn’t do very well in “recruiting” us like say golf does. The manufacturer’s should thank their lucky stars young boys love Thomas the Train, which carries over into purchases of their products by dad.
I have on very good authority, from Lewis K. English, Sr., the retired owner of Bowser Manufacturing, now age 92 or so (his sons run the business now, one son is now semi-retired), that when times are tough people historically spend even more money on model trains (or whatever their hobby is) than when economic times are good. Men who are working less play harder, or drown their frustrations in whatever their favorite medium might be.
With the increase in internet/mail order sales, the retail store business may suffer somewhat–but that is not necessarily an indicator of the overall sales and/or growth within the hobby–and nobody I know releases the internet/mail order sales volume as compared to the retail store sales volume.
There was a train sales slump for Bowser after 9/11, but again, the internet sales of all trains overall have taken off since then, as purchasing has moved away from the local store.
I have a friend who is the current store manager of a fine train store. He said the internet/mail order sales are about 7 times the retail sales of the store.
Just to add something on the economy related to my job. Ships from overseas dropped significantly from late 08 until recently. Traffic is increasing with several ports investing in making their facilities bigger and more efficient, mainly in container traffic. Shipyards are mostly busy with repair work, but there is a steady business with new construction. My company is currently building 6 new tugs. Lots of deep water oil platforms are being built to exploit the new ultra deep water oil reserves recently found in the Gulf of Mexico. What all this means, is most of the companies that were barely scrapping by or had questionable business plans are gone or soon will be. The ones with solid practices and financing are still here and growing, taking over the markets left by the other outfits departures. We have seen an increase in ship traffic in the northeast in recent months. Exports and imports are increasing and personally I think we have turned the corner. Companies don’t spend tens of millions of dollars (or more) without some assurance they will get it back.
That is an interesting quandry. If the internet sales are in fact that much higher(I’ll use your 7x more comment here) then the question should be raised as to why the internet sales volume comparisons are not released as this could prove that the hobby is a lot better than is thought. [%-)]
[edit] Another way to look at this would be to ‘split’ all aspects of the ‘retail’ sales up into all modes of sales—brick and mortar storefronts, catalogue/mailorder, internet sales. Forget retail all together. Why? Because the word retail implies all modes together. When total retail sales are discussed we discuss it as if we knew that ALL the modes are included. Sure, the seperate modes of sales are discussed but the overall sales revenue is treated as together----which may be why some people do not seperate/include the modes as done here—
Mind you, it could be that the ratio may not be nearly as high either. Either way, the total sales would need to be known—both retail AND internet----if both are in that store’s actual mix–
Agreed, for those people. But the truth is those who’s income is not directly or dramaticly effected will continue to spend what ever they usually spend. Maybe because of being a self employed one man operation most of my life, my personal economy has never been in sync with the gobal or national economy. I know lots of people doing just fine right now. My wife and I tried to go to a movie Sunday, it was sold out and the theatre packed - just like the depression, people will spend on entertainment and hobbies - just maybe not in the same way they did before.
This reflects the strenght of the dollar, but will even out.
[quote user=“CNJ831”]
2. Evidence for the hobby’s contraction is very evident and has been for a long time. By example, this forum instituted new operating software a few years ago that required all forum participants to re-register. The number of registered members was over 200,000 before the change-over. Currently the number stands at only 64,000 - a
I think hobby should slowly pick up this year. I’ve talked to a number of dealers at this year Plano show - and people say that the year was terrible but the show sales were actually pretty good. I have a feeling LHS don’t sell a lot of locomotives these days. I think manufacturers priced themselves so high that only online dealers are able to move them thanks to their volume discounts. It used to be that Backmann Spectrum DCC/Sound loco could be bought for around $200 locally. Rolling stock and everything else seems to sell well in LHS.
That could be true for some areas…There are folks that hasn’t been affected by the economy and judging by the mobs in the local box stores folks is still spending.
John, That will vary from modeler to modeler like it has over the years…I am retired and still send out 1 large monthly order plus what I get off of e-bay or N Scale yardsale…
For the last 5 years I’ve put a lot of train stuff on Ebay during the Christmas holidays. Most of the train auctions were to thin out my collections, to narrow down my “inventory” to my core interests, and to dispose of older and non “DCC friendly” locoss and other stuff. I typically have from 70 to 100 auctions during that four week period.
This year found the built and kit cars “going like hotcakes” with a few having bidding wars. But of course the dollars were relatively small - $10 to $20 or so. The higher end items, like Spectrum and P2K locos, went for less than expected. Funny thing, they generated a lot of interest and watchers, but the bidding was conservative.
As compared to prior years experience, I think folks were spending less, but the overall interest in the hobby was still present.
Is the hobby shrinking… Well, I’ve always felt that the core of the model railroader contingent is the folks that grew up in the '40s & '50s and started with the Lionel/AF/Marx trainsets. Once the slot cars arrived, and the hand held electronic games, and of course todays Wii/PC/Nintendo/etc. games, the young folks gravitated to them. The thing is, I find it hard to reconcile that opinion with the fact that there is so much train stuff out there, and obviously people are spending big bucks on the Hobby. Maybe there really are fewer model railroaders, but those of us in the hobby are spending a lot more money on it than we did years ago.
Will 2010 be better than 2009 ? Well, that’s a mixed bag. If you were out of work in 2009 and got a decent job in 2010, its better. But, if you didn’t, or lost your job, its worse. Overall I think things will improve, but I also believe that our expectations - ESPECIALLY our young people - will be lessened
My feelings, not having anything other than me to base this on, is that if a persons free money is hurting lately, yes they will slow down spending on MRR. We do need to eat and pay the mortgage, utilities, vehicles etc. However, unlike some things in life a hobby, especially MRR, doesn’t just pass you by and you say well, I’m too old, or my stuff is too old to use or the like. It just sits there and waits until you can get back to it baring many things in life that throw it to the back burner that have nothing directly to do with the economy. Generally. Once the financial situation stablizes and some free cash returns, the spending also does.
I don’t think the hobby is shrinking much though I’m sure it goes through shifting stages. Ups and downs if you will. Modelers passing on and new ones being born. However I wonder, as the train takes a less visible roll, (and I realize that’s not necessarily accurate, but from the standpoint of the steam days and the transition period and even up through the sixties, trains were much more than just an occasional thing to not notice. How many kids do you see waving at the Engineer of a passing train anymore?) will it die out? Probably not for a long time, but possibly. Look how popular steam still is and it’s been how long since they’ve pulled into your town and blew the whistle? I’d venture to say MRR will remain popular at least as long as we’re alive.
Lastly, I think 2010 will be better than 2009. Both in products and in sales. The longer someone has to deal with short funds, the longer they’ve had to adjust to the lack of and have adjusted things so they are spending less and possibly have some free spending money again. Maybe not much, but some. Others, aren’t so lucky. But when their ship comes in, the first place they’ll head is the LHS. Guaranteed.
My LHS is selling a ton of model railroading stuff. Locomotives and other big ticket items aren’t selling as well but cars, scenic materials, scratch building materials etc are flying off the shelves.
I believe more people are actually getting into the hobby. People are looking for things to do at home instead of traveling all over and MRing is one of the hobbies people are choosing.
I believe it’s going to be the same. 2011 is when things will get better.
I probably spent more in 2009 on model railroading than I did in total from 2006 through 2008, and much more than any other year in the 50-so years I’ve been in the hobby. This was mostly due to having lots of brass models (Coach Yard, Overland, Precision Scale) arriving in 2009 which were ordered during the several years before. So, I’d have to say that the current state of the economy has had no negative effect on my spending.
Mark (who hasn’t received a bonus in over ten years)
I think people want more for their dollar on the hobby (as with everything else). They will try to get the good deals on the Internet, eBay or at the local model train show rather than pay full retail price at their LHS. Also, I’ve learned that sometimes, time is more valuable than money. I’m technically unemployed and…I HAVE A LOT OF TIME TO SPEND ON MY HOBBY! And I’ve spent hundreds more dollars on model railroading this year than I did for most of last year, when I was working full time, yet never really had time (or energy) to spend on model railroading. Go figure!
No, I think the hobby is growing very slightly, though not in any considerable number. I’ve noticed the rise in small and independent manufacturers in the past 5 years. I’ve also noticed that N scale has grown in popularity and if things go as they are, N scale will rival HO by the end of this decade (If you doubt that, remember that modern technology has improved the quality of N models to nearly or equal the level of detail as HO, people are used to handling smaller objects (i.e. iPod Nano, Micro SD cards, etc) and that a whole generation has NOT grown up with getting an HO scale train set for Christmas).
Slightly better. Though a lot of that depends on the region you live in and the field you are employed in. There are a bunch of recession-proof jobs out there but not a lot of people are skilled in them. Also over this decade, baby boomers are retiring from many industries (the prototype railroads, for example!) and they need younger labor to replace them.
Even if just for once when these sorts of questions pop up, it would really be nice and actually informative to see something offered other than the usual baseless personal opinion…which generally goes against the evidence anyway. There are facts and figures that do indicate the hobby’s trends, both in the past and currently and it is those that should be cited.
So what did we end up with? Once again here we are at three full pages of essentially individual baseless speculation on three different points that provides absolutely no insight whatever into the current state of anything.
Obviously, those still with solid employment think things are just fine and are buying, while those who already have, or are on the verge, of loosing their situation and/or their homes (now comprising a very significant fraction of the population), obviously have virtually stopped spending. What a revelation!
Equally amusing is to see how many insist that the hobby is still growing. As usual, they offer no basis whatever for holding that opinion beyond that’s what they desperately want to believe, and inspite of the fact that numerous actual hobby tends point in just the opposite direction!
And then…while even government and private sector economic pundits can’t decide whether things will get better or worse in 2010, of what value is hearing the - once again baseless - opinions of folks here, probably none of whom are either trained economists, or any sort of captains of industry? Is the mai
Look. If one LHS loses 7 regular customers in 1 month, all of them big spenders BTW, what do you think will happen eventually? Just multiply that by how many LHS’s both Brick/Mortar AND Internet/Mailorder and see what happens[:-^]
I, for one, do not think it will totally disappear but I do think that it could become more ‘collector’ based than it is now.
Is the main purpose of so many such threads, as seems to be the case with most internet forums, not to inform or clarify situations, but simply to hear ourselves talk?
Buying stuff is the easy part of this hobby . I have been to the homes of a number of modelers who have many closets full of model railroad stuff that they have never even taken out of the boxes. I think it would do a lot of good for these guys to actually get on with building a layout and running their trains. Now that they can’t spend so much perhaps they will be motivated to do so.
. I have been to the homes of a number of modelers who have many closets full of model railroad stuff that they have never even taken out of the boxes. I think it would do a lot of good for these guys to actually get on with building a layout and running their trains. Now that they can’t spend so much perhaps they will be motivated to do so.