Model Railroading

Model Railroader General Discussion (Model Railroader)
1

Here is a poser for you,

Is the hobby of model railroading growing, shrinking, flat or?

Just curious,

Joe Daddy

2

Here we go again…

[zzz]

3

Yes.

4

…or, maybe not. [:-,]

Okay, I dunno.

5

And the answere is…OR!

6

Oregon?

7

It’s doing whatever you want it to do. The gloom and doom crowd will say the sky is falling and that the hobby is coming to an end, The optimists will say it’s growing, and The insane will eat glue.

8

The correct answer to your question is: “no.”

9

At Bay Rails last week, I ended up car pooling with an NMRA board member (who recently retired from the board) and I asked him this question: Is the hobby growing, shrinking, or flat. His answer?

According to the surveys he’s seen from several authoritative sources, the hobby is flat.

The same number of under 40 modelers are joining the hobby as elderly are leaving it because of passing on.

He said the surveys also show most modelers enter the hobby in the age 8-18 range, then leave the hobby in their 20s as the burdens of college, career, and family take priority. Then they re-enter the hobby later as the kids get old enough that the parent has some free time again (later 30s-40s).

Those under 40 generally don’t have a lot of resources for travelling to conventions, and those in the 40-60 age generally don’t have lots of free time from work to attend conventions. But those over 60 generally have lots of free time, so they go to conventions.

The end result is lots of over 60 folks go to conventions, giving one the impression the hobby is significantly graying. The authoritative studies he’s seen show this is not the case.

So the hobby is not shrinking dramatically, but neither is it growing dramatically, thus the World’s Greatest Hobby campaign. Let’s get somegrowth ! [swg]

10

In my house, it’s flat.

I do, and always have - at least since the age of five (months!)

My wife doesn’t, and almost certainly never will.

(Of course the same thing could be said for lace-making, her hobby that I don’t share.)

Chuck (modeling Central Japan in September, 1964)

11

…all of the above? [%-)]

Joe, your assessment sounds logical, although one would think that the increasing competition from high-tech toys like video games and computers would cut into the numbers to some degree. I don’t think model railroading is as ubiquitous as it was when I was growing up, when trains could readily be found on department and discount store shelves.

Interestingly enough, I just found this early 70’s AHM O scale set on eBay. I know the WGH campaign hasn’t been around that long, but it makes you wonder who first coined the slogan.

12

I think we need an unscientific poll of a dozen or so modelers to tell us.

13

Hi Joe-Daddy!

No one here has access to any hard data. Joe Furgate’s post with quotes from the NMRA chap is probably the closest to hard data you will see. The problem is that many people have access to small bits of data, and even more have access to anecdotal information or opinion gleaned from their own experience or observation. Bob’s sarcastic, I actually thought quite funny, little barb about polls is spot on in this case. You could argue that any one of the choices is correct.

14

My gratitude to the serious responses thus far, and a ‘chuckle’ to those less serious, but more predictable! [:)]

I don’t seek to be flame bait here, nor are my thougts intended to be trivial, but to engage in some serious dialogue.

There are some facts and data that could help assess the state of the hobby’s size and assumed health.

Are overall sales $$ of model railroad related items growing or shrinking? What are key economic health indicators of related suppliers and manufacturers?

  1. Bankrupcy rate of current leaders U/D/S (up/down/static)

  2. Number of new suppliers and manufacturers each (U/D/S)

  3. Mergers and buyouts of existing suppliers and manufacturers (U/D/S)

Internet presence

  1. Forums that are growing with new members and postings

  2. Forums that are stagnant, dying or died in the past year

  3. New forums this year

  4. Same data on train blogs

Local, National and regional club health

Train shows per year, attendance and demographics

These are just a few of the metrics that I’d think would give some legitimate response to my question. The state of the hobby is not an abstract construct. It seems to me that instead of relying upon antedotal information gleaned from pundits and members of the OFC, real facts can be collected to better understand the issue.

So, Joe Daddy, who is responsible for doing this, well, I’d say no one is actually responsible, which is why we don’t have clear or supportable data. But there are those who’s best interests are served by knowing this. Large, leading magazines, national organizations and manufacturers themselves all need and would value this data as legitimate marketing information. Actually I would be very surprised if none or all

15

They have been less serious because we have covered this topic ad nauseum on this board many, many times previously.

16

Midnight,

I appreciate the insight and I do thank your sharing it in the kind and helpful way you have.

And yet we have no real answer to the question. I am proposing that we get some answers and not just jawbone it, but find out.

Joe

17

If that’s your goal–and it may well be worthwhile–the past threads on this forum have shown that nothing less than hard market reserach will accomplish it.

18

Midnight,

Yes we agree, and I fear that the data is held close by those who must know as a way to gain competitive advantage. I’d like to see an annual article in MRR trying to credibly assess the state of the hobby. The NMRA has a vested interest in knowing this too.

Best regards,

Joe

19

By the way, you forgot “inimitable.”

20

Joe, in one of the threads in the last year or so, someone put a lot of effort into demographics taking into account things like on-line memberships, magazine subscriptions, clubs etc. They also looked at MRR survey results from bygone years. Still, nothing conclusive was determined.

I would agree that the folks that really know, or at least have a good handle, are sitting in board rooms at Walthers and Horizon. Horizon in particular fascinate me. Here was a big-gun in the RC market making not insubstantial investments into Model Railroading, a hobby segment that they had no presence in. I doubt that they did this without some serious analysis of the business opportunity. So like you, I am somewhat optimistic about the hobby. The fact that the NMRA and some of the bigger manufacturers took the initiative to start the WGH campaign is a good indicator to me that folks that really care about the long term success of the hobby are willing to do something to try and ensure its growth.

On a final note, my Brother in the UK is a marketing executive in the craft industry. The home craft market faces virtually identical issues to MRR. The boomers are ageing and will soon pass on. The career/family woman frequently does not have enough time to devote to home crafts (this includes everything from scrap-booking to the needle arts) They are worried about getting young blood into the hobbies with plenty of marketing effort being focused on that very issue.

Then there are the anomalies. 2002 was a boom year for the craft industry as a whole. Way off the charts, a total anomaly. It was attributed entirely to 9/11. People stayed home. People turned inwards. People turned to the simple pleasures of life. I often wondered if the same happened in the MRR industry that year. Somehow I suspect that it did, because I suspect that a very large percentage of model railroaders share a home with someone tha