Model Railroading

Joe,

Recommendations and your “conclusions drawn from the known facts” aside, that’s why we are here on the forum. Yes, it’s a place for us to come to to glean useful information for ourselves. It’s also an equally and more important place to come to with the attitude of helping the newbie out with their plethora and variety of questions about this beloved hobby of ours. (That’s been my attitude since I started participating almost 3 years ago.)

I think the majority of us here on the forum in the “OFC” could honestly say that we spend more time answering questions than posting questions, with the expressed desire to somehow be a “paraklete” or to come along side those just starting out in the hobby - to offer any useful advice and information that we have either gleaned ourselves from discussions or from personal experiences, good or bad.

Course, I don’t have any hardcore data to back up my conclusions. Nor do I think it is needed.

Tom

Several people have suggested that the NMRA should go find out … if you read my post then you know the NMRA has already found out through several official polling sources.

I spoke directly with a recently retired NMRA board member and he told me exactly what the NMRA knows in no uncertain terms, and he named the poll sources the NMRA uses.

So if you read my last post, that is what an NMRA official (just retired) told me. And I have relayed it to you. That, my friends, is the NMRA’s information and now you know it.

Simple as that.

What’s with the “nobody knows” or “maybe it’s something else” posts? I gave you the facts as best as I know them from the NMRA. That’s the horses mouth. For me it lays the whole debate to rest. The hobby is not shrinking. The hobby is not growing appreciably. It’s flat.

Tom,

I read your posts and your website. I take your statement at face value and as fact. You are typically without a rigid agenda other than to share your experience. It is why your posts are valued.

If indeed our hobby is attracting larger numbers of new members, hungry for solid advice, then new opportunities for assisting the innocents might be worthwhile.

Joe

Joe,

So from your earlier post, if the number of hobbyists is staying the same, then the percentage of the population that are model railroaders is declining because the population is increasing.

Thanks for sharing.

When you see your NMRA friend again, encourage him to share the polls publically. I, for one, would find it interesing to know how the different parts of the hobby are doing as well - tinplate vs scale, each scale, etc.

Enjoy

Paul

Joe, and I feel a little like debating with the Professor here, certainly no offense is intended. I did carefully read and just re-read your post and this one as well. An NMRA poll does not really convince me one way or another of whether the hobby is flat, shrinking or growing. As I outlined, there are just too many factual pieces of information that will tell in more reliable terms the state of the hobby.

Polls represent the antedotal information of the responder. For example over the past 4 years the US economy has grown and has been considered to be one of the most productive in our nation’s history, yet the political polling has repeatedly told us the people think the economy is awful. NO intent to change topic, only offered as an analogy to make the point.

With high regard to a master modeler,

Joe Daddy

This is exactly why I don’t hold much credence in polls, in general - albeit about the economy or MRRing. It all comes down to how the original poll was conducted and whether the informatin extrapolated from it was correctly interpreted or not. The results can be debated endlessly.

If what I saw at the recent WGH tour stop in Pittsburgh is an indicator of anything, I don’t think we have anything to worry about. Let’s just keep helping and encouraging one another on, as well as keeping our eye out for the newbies who come to visit our forum.

Tom

The profit margin and total sales from the large suppliers to the small manufactures would probably be the only way to really tell. Try to get all that info though!

The economy comment is a good analogy, because it shows that when a few benefit greatly they think is great for everybody, when in reality the opposite is true for most people.

Don&#

I can’t understand why everyone wants polls to answer these questions. Polls might shed some light, but I think the conclusive information will come from manufacturing sales, production, and financial data. Simply show me their audited financial statements over the past five years and I’ll be able to tell you where the hobby is heading - or at least which manufactures will be around for a while.

Trouble is, no one will ever be able to get them to do this because most (if not all) model railroading manufacturers are privately owned companies that are under no obligation to publicly disclose any of this information. And if they are wise, they will hold this information VERY close.

Bruce,

Everyone is not asking for polls. I certainly did not ask for a poll and most have agreed with me. Polls are typically responded to on the basis of anedotal data.

Joe Fugate said NMRA relied upon a poll to determine the hobby is flat. I responded by saying there is better information out there.

I gave a number of examples of non-financial data that could be obtained that does provide credible, factual data about the hobby.

Joe

Just for the record, the NMRA board member gave me the combined conclusion based on a number of polls done by large hobby manufacturers that have been shared with the NMRA.

So this is a composite view of the hobby growth from the NMRA via a number of large manufacturers and their information they gave to the NMRA board.

And of all the organizations in a position to know, the NMRA ought to know.

When I asked the retired board member if the hobby was shrinking, graying, had a bleak future, etc. he said random observation of conventions would make you think that might be the case, but numberous polls done by large hobby manufacturers and shared with the NMRA say otherwise. The hobby is not shrinking. It is not growing significantly. It is flat.

From this conversation I concluded this is about as close to the horses mouth as we’re going to get on this topic.

Flat is both good and bad. Shrinking would be bad. Flat means no growth, which can be less-than-ideal. Flat also means we need to get the word out so the hobby starts growing again. If the general news media is to be trusted, then we may be entering into a growth period for the hobby again.

Yes, sorry, I know you didn’t ask for polls. [:I] I should have been clearer. This was more of a response to the many past topics on this subject were many have advocated the need for more polls.

It might provide some useful data, but I’m not convinced it would be conclusive. We really need to follow the money. I think that will tell us what’s really going on. For instance, as suggested there might be neutral growth in the number of modelers, but each might be spending more on average. This would mean manufacturers are actually doing better despite no increase in modeler population. Then there are other factors such cost of materials, labor, shipping, currency exchange, etc. that could also increase or decrease profit margins.

The bottom line is that if the manufacturers are profitable and financially stable, then the hobby is doing well no matter how many of us there are at a given point.

If it is flat, Joe, and since the population is growing in N. America, and much of it is from immigrants (not a bad thing, just a very high probability if you accept certain sources of information…at least it is the case in some places in our two countries), then the flatness is decidely negative. I would guess that something like 75-85% of the membership here is white, and largely middle-aged like you and I. What is the likelihood that our hobby will appeal to a critical mass of immigrants over the next 20 years, during which our own kind will slowly thin due to any number of age-related and other causes? Many of them will not have had the exposure to railways, and many of them will find it hard to afford the hobby for some time after they arrive even if they are interested.

This will be taken as a provocative question, perhaps inappropriate, by some folks, but I can assure you I am trying to approach our topic from a pragmatic and factual sense, not for any political or cultural reason. Let’s try to focus on the numbers as we can get them and accept them as meaningful to the discussion.

Simply, if our absolute numbers are rising, no matter the skin colour of the heads counted (it is really only relevant in my second paragraph), and our MRR numbers are at best flat, it suggests we have either an image problem or a perceived interest/relevance problem for those who do other things with their time.

Some other interesting trends: People now spend 30-35% of their free time online. The internet is moving from static sites with content to a place to meet and share experiences, and the fastest growing age groups moving online are baby boomers (age 41-61 right now) and veterans (age 62+).

So one future strategy to promote the hobby is an aggressive web presence that enhances allowing people to connect and share experiences.

Done right, the internet promises to be one way be can really promote and grow the hobby. Sharing via the printed page alone isn’t enough any more. I would hazzard to guess that sometime in the next decade the free time online number will break 50%. When that happens, you are more likely to find people online than anywhere else.

Those who prepared for this trend will be the big winners in the business world. And it will be a self-fulfilling trend too. As more companies wake up and see the trend, more and more rich, robust, and interesting participatory, interactive web sites will emerge. Word of mouth will drive still more people online for the new “experience”. And the “where people spend their free time” will snowball to a still larger percentage for the internet.

The internet has a tremendous interactive engagement capability that far outshines one-sided information sources like paper or even TV – and much of this interactive nature of the internet has yet to be tapped. It’s the ability to engage that will turn the internet from yet another static info source into an “experience” that will allow people from all around the world to connect in new and really fun ways.

It’s not all one or the other. Polls are useful, as are sales figures, and some of the other things suggested above. Together they can show the current state of the hobby.

But polls are a unique way of tapping into attitudes and opinions. A well done poll can show not only how many modelers are in the hobby, but why. Why did they join in, why have some left. What do they like/dislike about the hobby.

Sales figures are an after the fact story, but it is incomplete. Sure, it’s interesting to know someone manufactures 100,000 NW2 diesels for an msrp of $149, he sells 50,000 at full wholesale price and discounts the other 50,000 and still has 5,000 left after 5 years. But it really doesn’t tell us the story. Did folks regard them as poor quality, too expensive for the quality, didn’t like the roadnames, had other products they wanted more, just didn’t want an NW2, etc. What’s the breakdown between those who bought at full price, those at a discount, and those who didn’t buy.

The polls that used to be done on this website were fun, but not always well done. If you ever watch me hammer a nail, you’ll conclude that a hammer is the most worthless tool ever invented in the history of mankind. We shouldn’t make the same mistake with polls.

Enjoy

Paul

Although I have no scientific data to back up my opinion (nor care to obtain it), I believe the hobby is growing but is much more fragmented than it was in the past. There are many more modelers that have special interests outside the scope of the mainstream modeling community. Because of this, magazines, groups, and especially websites, etc have sprung up to cater to modelers in different gauges, scales, prototypes, and eras that the mainstream magazines, most LHSs, and the modeling community at large don’t cover.

Conventions are good for the hobby in that they help promote it and provide a social outlet for modelers, however, many modelers, myself included, are basically lone wolves or not that interested in the social aspect; and many just don’t have the time. As for the expenses, you could buy a brass locomotive with the money it costs to go if you include the price of hotels.

Just my thoughts on polls:

Polls can be interesting and informative and mis-leading, all at the same time. People gather information from various sources and form opionions based on those information sources. A poll reflects the interviewee’s “opinion” of the information he/she has access to. It does not have to be factual since the information has been processed through a highly developed, and (possibly) neurotic, human brain. In other words, opinions expressed by interviewees can be the result of co-mingling fact, fiction and outright lies. There is no ‘science’ in these opinions.

If one were to conduct an exit poll at a large, regional train show, I suspect the poll would show that modeling trains is a growing hobby. Conduct the same poll at a convention of dentists and I strongly suspect the conclusion would be that the modeling of trains is a dead hobby.

I’m not sure that polls are an effective means for gathering information. There is too much “personalization” of “facts” to make polls truly meaningful in terms of hobby growth.

Well, them’s my thoughts, anyway. I you like polls, keep on enjoying them. As for me, I usually skip them.

Darrell, quiet…for now

I think Joe F. has given the best answer you are going to be able to get on this. While the info might be out there to get a ‘better’ answer, it isn’t where anyone is goign to get at it. Plus, to figure a trend, you’d need past info to, and that is going to be next to impossible to gather.

But the ‘flat’ answer, sounds about right. There are a lot of small, ‘niche’ companies in the hobby, and many have been around for years. They don’t seem to be vanishing at any quick rate (other than the LHS, but that’s a different issue entirely), so they must be selling something to someone. There is enough business for the DCC manufacturers to developa and market new products. There is enough that Atlas came out with code 55 on N scale, and the Trainman line. There seems to be a steady release of new products from the larger manufacturerers, including completely new items, not just reworked. If the hobby was dying, these foks would know before we did, and they wouldn’t be pouring good money into these things. The other thing in the hobby’s favor at the present time is that the baby boomers are probably pretty much in the prime MRR years. So the hooby is probably safe for a while on that score. On the other hand, it is probably not growing a lot, either. There are more things competing for our time, and it feels like less time, as well (that is harder to explain, but it feels that way). I agree with the idea that there may be more specialized interests going on, as well.

In all, I think this is very hard for the hobbiest to measure, and as long as you are getting what you want from the hobby, be happy! We shouldn’t need to be validated by being concerned with whether we are in a popular (or even the World’s Greatest) hobby, as long as we are happy in it. I guess the only concern would be if the sky really was falling, and there were no suppliers left in five years, bu