Hi everyone… is anyone interested in discussing modeling the railroads of the future… that is, how to model today the railroads of 2030. I am looking for resources or groups that want to use model railroading as a way of expressing a positive vision for the future of transportation based on near-term technologies-- that is 10 to 20 years down the line. Anything to share? Thoughts? Thanks!
12 years are not much of a time span, if you think about a dramatic change in railroading, both in operation and technology. I don´t think that it will differ much from what you see today. If I were to look into a crystal ball, I might see passenger services increase in areas with a high density of population, most of the increase coming from already known projects. Maybe the equipment will look more what we can see in these days in Europe - modern, lightweight engines and cars in both commuter and mid-range services. But that´s only a guess.
I,m with Urlich on this: twelve years, even 22 years is not long to change a large infrastruture. Mono rail for passenger service, BIG bucks, and where.
Freight operations will remain much the same, with perhaps less small volume customers, and more unit trains, unless coal consumption and oil consumption both go down drastically.
But one can dream, and perhaps in 20 years you will look on today as the bad or good old days, depending on what happens and your point of view.
Dave
Well if you want to make a realistic guess at what the future looks like… I’d say model lots of new tech and some hypothetical tech which could become feasible in 12 years. So self driving trucks coming in out of terminals, drones monitoring all railyards, PTC on every major line, T4 and other low emissions locomotives (other than Gensets which will be lucky if they last even this decade) and further growth of commuter rail in urban areas. Expect some of the big names in railroading to look the same, I doubt that Union Pacific for example is going to bow out anytime soon…
But… if you don’t want a boring predictible future, go crazy! How about post nuclear war, apocalyptic world of survivors using armor plated trains to scour the wastelands with pockets of deadly mutants raiding the trains? Massive ecologic destruction with flooded cities, drought riden plains, and pollution spewing out of every building? Disney-esque utopia, with clean buildings, green trees, white fountains, and monorails gliding on their slim beams? First contact with aliens giving us new technology which changes how our civilization lives, or perhaps humanity is locked in an interstellar war with the aliens? Or maybe go the Futurama route, were the tech is new; but human’s are still just the same self centered creatures focusing on the same things they do now, and everything just looks like 50’s camp sci-fi?
Perhaps passenger travel will Com back into vogue, seeing all the problems the airlines are having Amtrak would be wise to lower their rates and improve service, I think freight locomotives will be most likely LPG or some other “clean” fuel, or they might be like dual mode electric for when they’re in the city.
I’d put your forecast farther out so it could be more “realistic” so to speak, the sooner you put it the less change you can apply.
If they give us a transporter we won’t need any trains.
Heck, the planning to replace CSX’s Long Bridge here in DC is on year six of a replacement plan that was first laid out 19 years ago. If they stay on schedule, it’ll be done in ten years.
Driverless trucks are already on their way but I don’t see federal regulations allowing for that with large freight trains. We already have automated rail systems for intra-airport travel between remote parking and terminals but in urban areas with light rail, the side by side high density of rail and auto has already run up scores of accidents-can’t imagine A I driven systems there either. Aerodynamics has no purpose below 60mph and freight cars are designed for capacity not beauty. Advanced “styling” might be in the offing but wholesale change that would be “modelable” sees unlikely.
Cedarwoodron
Yah, 12 years is the end of when folks working today on current projects will be looking for retirement while the systems being designed today are going into operation. Lots of the RR biz depends on very long term planning that is observant of economic cycles and other forcecasting and modeling factors.
Depends on where, too. In the US, more passenger, yes, but whether that still connects in a national network depends on whether…a lot of things we won’t go there in this forum. But it’s clear that planners and local authorities are turning back to rail where high volume demand requires its use. Old systems are seeing new investment as the public realizes rail is the only alternative to massive parking lot trraffic jams stretching for miles. There is, in the densest urban environments, no place to accommodate all the cars if everyone drove. Has been that way for a hundred years or more. Somehow, this idea remains controversial, but the facts are there if you care to look.
In the rest of the world, rail is generally eagerly embraced and countries pride themselves in making comparisons between the features and speed of their respective high speed passenger trains. China is still building its network, but there are over 14,000 miles of high speed rail in it’s network already.
Interestingly, the best and brightest from these rail-competive countries come here to study and teach at the University of Illinois, whose highly competetive railroad engineering program is building on a distinguished record more than a century old. My wife usually hangs out and chats with many of them on Fridays, so it’s always gratifying to hear about new things and issues of current interest from their studied point of view. I’ve also had the pleasure of hanging out with some of the students, who I’ve been lucky enough to operate with at local layouts.
The bottom line is that US railraods are likely to grow more cloesly aligned with a globe that is investing in rail. GE exitin
I think the “mini container” idea is pretty good, it’d probably be some sort of mini containers that fit into a rack/frame the size of a standard container.
I think we’ll see the trains come before the trucks and cars.
Autonomous (driverless) trucks are “on the way” if one is talking to the high minded transportation people whose head is only in the clouds. My livelihood is highway engineering, and I can tell you they’ve drunk way too much of their own Koolade. Bluntly put, the necessary infrastructure to support autonomous trucks–and cars–is utterly lacking in the United States. Sure, in a few test corridors in big cities they can show it works–BUT–there are massive safety issues due to “gaps” in the technology. People have died from being hit by autonomous vehicles. The truly massive investment in infrastructure to support autonomous vehicles simply does not exist. The federal and state governments can’t adequately support the highway network we have now. We can’t build our way out of congestion, and there is simply no tax money available for the massive infrastructure investment required to support autonomous cars and/or trucks. For instance, most traffic signals would require updating, and that’s only just the beginning, tip of the iceberg.
The average age of the American vehicle fleet is very high, I’m not s
Model a Hyperloop. All you need is some PVC pipe and something to make a whooshing noise. [;)] [;)] [;)]
An interesting topic considering so many model railroaders are in the hobby because they want to model or remember the past, the good ol days.
I am planning a layout that will feature Amtrak in 2030.
It will consist of a bare 4x8 plywood sheet. [swg]
Rich
Or a model RR of the future will have driverless trains that are 100% covered in graffiti. Since there will be no engineers to look out the window, the graffiti covering them will just be left there.
Its called 18 wheelers they will be the carrier of freight rail is for passengers.
Considering that they just put out an RFP for new locomotives, I’d gamble they plan on being around in 12 years.
Plus the NEC and corridors aren’t going anywhere any time soon.
Mainline terminal to terminal would be possible. Local switching will require people, until self mobile, all terrain, AI becomes very advanced.
Dave
That won’t make the companies happy!
Anyway, as we have been seeing with self driving cars, these technologies are rather comlex and slow in coming. Many, maybe most of us will be gone by the time those become common place.
I was watching a movie recently, can’t remember which, and the protagonist was dodging driverless semi-trucks on the highway in it.
Positive train control will be everywhere. Also yards will all have remotely controled switchers.
There will be more commuter trains which travel farther distances. Commuter trains will all start using crash resistant control cabs which are shaped more like an aerodynamic locomotive instead of just having a coach with controls.
Most rail crossings will be converted to over passes or underpasses. Junctions where two railroads cross will also be changed to overpasses. Double track mainlines will be more common.
Instead of burning diesel locomotives might use bio-diesel or natural gas. They might also be hybrid and have batteries onboard. Instead of dynamic brakes just generating heat they might recharge the batteries. They might also have solar panels.
Locomotives and FREDs might also have backup cameras and other means to uncouple cars or connect brake lines to eliminate the brakeman position.