750,000 riders per year projected at startup for downtown Minneapolis to downtown Duluth per the MNDoT guy.
Sounds impressive.
Assuming daily service 365 days per year that is 2,054 riders per day, or 1,027 each way if evenly distributed.
If they run two frequencies per day that is 514 riders per train.
Once one gets to downtown Duluth which is not that large, I suspect there will be additional time and travel cost to get to the traveler’s ultimate destination.
It will be interesting to see how close to projections they will get but even if they don’t meet projections it will have been built so MNDoT will keep it running nonetheless.
Service to Hinckley may be a boon to the casino there.
Ticket prices will be interesting - need to be low enough to attract people out of their autos and leave them enough money to pay for the rest of their transportation to get where they are actually going once they get to downtown Duluth.
It certainly does! I had no idea there were so many people in Minneapolis who wanted to go to Duluth on any particular day – far less what they’ll all do in Duluth once they get there…
(/sarc – glad you corrected it in the original! It was clear from the context anyway.)
blue, agree. The population of Duluth has been declining steadily - it was 86,697 at the 2020 census. It used to be well over 100,000, peaking at 106,844 in 1960.
Most-not all but most-people heading north to Duluth are trying to get way past Duluth to cabins, skiing and state and Federal parks and lands.
But returning passenger service to Duluth has been a holy grail of the MNDoT bureaucracy for several decades. The person in the interview talked about getting money to implement it. Then they will talk about getting money to operate it. The number of persons employed operating it and overseeing it will be substantial. People in MNDoT will spend whole careers administering it once it is running.
A Hiawatha extension between St. Paul and Chicago has a better chance at some farebox recovery of operating costs and with a high percentage of available seats being filled. It makes much more sense with the larger markets being served if they can keep on the advertised for trip times.
It’s interesting what’s happening in Milwaukee. Northwestern Mutual has announced it will be moving 2,000 employees from its suburban Franklin campus to its downtown headquarters (which it’s revamping and expanding). Milwaukee Tool is also moving HQ downtown. And new housing is going up a few blocks from the intermodal station. More potential traffic for Amtrak?
I have a hard time guessing what exactly is the intent of MnDOT because they always seem to me to be disorganized and not really sure of their direction. I suspect though the goal here is to make Duluth a kind of Transportation hub of sorts for Northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, North Woods folks.
I have to say though a good comparison would be, Portland, Maine only has a population of 68,000 and the Downeaster carries close to half a million people a year. in 2022 figures and close to 8.4 million since the service started up. So I wouldn’t poo-poo the Amtrak projections of ridership necessarily here. I never thought the Downeaster would be the success it is with a terminus in Moose country but look at them continue to invest in and expand the service.
Additoinally, you guys are not looking at the tax ramifications here either. You bring in 3-4 RT Train frequencies a day to Duluth, property values along the line are going to increase, resulting in money for the Minnesota Treasury that was not there before. So I would be curious what the trains Economic impact is to the Minnesota Treasury minus the subsidy paid out. Which also might be part of the motivation by Minnesota.
Lets also not forget the dynamics of the Siemens trainsets either, faster acceleration and braking…slightly faster than the equipment Amtrak has now in scheduled service. The trainsets are also 125 mph capable and I would imagine MnDOT wants to at least convert portions that are not welded rail to welded rail and raise the speed on some or all the line to 90 mph if not more. The Siemens trainsets make that improvement in speed a lot more likely.
Make sure you swing by Central Standard Distillery and Restaurant nearby. Good food and drink. https://thecentralstandard.com/ Not a long walk from the train station either. You can see the Post Office and Station from one of the roof shots.
I heard a while back they were going to turn the huge main post office right at Intermodal Depot into some new retail development or something of that nature but have not heard much since the initial announcement years ago.
In Minnesota property taxes go to the county and municipalities.
The BNSF line to Duluth is all welded rail. Lots of grain heads in that direcation.
Regarding the Downeaster, the Boston Metropolitan Statistical Area at 5.0 Million persons is about 40% larger than the Twin Cities Statistical Area at 3.5 Million persons. Downeaster also feeds from Amtrak coming up from New York City where many residents don’t own automobiles, making the train a more viable option.
Glad the Downeaster works. Hope the Northern Lights Express will work. Know a second MSP-MKE-CHI frequency will work if it can hold to its trip time.
One unique factor about the geography of the Twin Cites is that for about 50% of the population, by the time they drive to a Minneapolis station they could be about halfway to Duluth up I-35 at freeway speeds on every day except bad weather days.
This is the basic mistake made when people review both corridors. The assumption that nothing will ever change in schedule or infrastructure and the first start up frequency is how things will forever be. It’s never happened that way and from a pure accounting perspective the first train is always the most expensive with the fixed costs and the need to reopen and potentially staff depots. Subsequent trains share the fixed costs and their startup costs are lower as is their subsidy is lower than the first train. Additionally and incrementally, even if the state makes zero improvements…Amtrak tends to spend money improving stations and sometimes on right of way to speed up transit times over the corridor. So you either see a speed up in trains or more stations open along the route and the speed stays generally the same, either of those two items will result in increases in ridership.
Also, lets not forget that just 60 miles to the East of Duluth is Ashland, WI which was found by C&NW to be a viable terminus for the “Flambeau 400” from Chicago, for so many years (it was a 1950 start-up). So while I agree in part on the population density argument between the Northeast and this corridor in the Midwest. There is very significant patronage opportunity on this route in the Summer, it’s not exac
The Flambeau 400 lasted all the way to Amtrak. My father rode it numerous times from Green Bay to Chicago before the interstates were built out.
Summer is busier up north, but summer is really, really short up there. I have biked numerous former rail ptrails in the region.
The busy season is about 10 weeks between when schools are out in early June and Labor Day.
Cabin activity tends to last into October, however, through hunting season.
If I-35 had not been built the railroad would definitely be faster to Duluth. I have driven the “old roads” adjacent to the BNSF route to Duluth and the travel time is much longer than on I-35.
it is too bad the direct rail bridge between Superior and Rice’s Point in Duluth was removed - it would save probably 20 minutes and maybe more in travel time.
Thats a shame because Duluth and Superior are twin cities and having a train stop at both is convienence for the passenger. So I take it that BNSF also abandoned the ex-Northern Pacific between Duluth - Superior and Ashland, WI. Historically interesting because the Ashland connection to then Wisconsin Central I am sure was used by NP when it controlled WC.
I count at least two stupid rail removals in Wisconsin. The former C&NW Milwaukee to Waukesha line AND the former Milwaukee Road branch from Brookfield, WI to Waukesha. Both would have come in handy for any future Milwaukee to Waukesha rail commutte route…saving mileage.
The BNSF line to Ashland is gone as well as the Duluth, South Shore & Atlantic.
The only line left that goes to Ashland is owned by Watco now, having puchased it in 2022 from CN who in turn got ownership of it when they purchased Wisconsin Central.
The link goes to a group for C&NW fans, with almost 6,000 members. Unfortunately it’s a private group, which means not only that you can’t see anything unless you’re a Facepalm member, but you have to answer questions three to cross their equivalent of the Bridge of Death. Why are you a C&NW fan? What are the commuter trains out of Chicago called? Be imaginative in your replies…
That’s a bit of an exageration. Per Google Maps, depot to depot, St. Paul to Duluth is 150 miles, takes 2 hr 12 min. I live 15 miles from St. Paul Union Depot, and drove past it every day going to and from work before I started working from home due to the pandemic. Even in M-F “rush hour” it took around 15-20 min. to get to SPUD. Plus I can walk a block and a half and take a bus directly to SPUD in around the same time.
I think most planners assume most traffic will be the other way anyway - folks from northern MN / NW Wisconsin coming to “the cities” for shopping, major league sports, etc. That being said, many Twin City folks are fond of Duluth, and I’m sure would go on weekend “mini-vacations” there, particularly in the summer when the Duluth temps are 20-30 degrees lower than that of Mpls-St.Paul!
Overnight train to Duluth from St. Paul, in which case not many people would care about running time as they would be sleeping. Return to St. Paul with an early morning departure from Duluth. This could be done with one trainset based in St.Paul and folks from Duluth could spend a good part of a day in the Twin Cities…running time in this direction might be an issue but compensation in part is folks would arrive downtown and not have to worry about City parking.
I think the above would partly compensate for the shortcommings of routing from St. Paul.