My observation- Now I want to hear yours

Classic Toy Trains Forum
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I have been religiously buying and selling Lionel Trains for almost my entire life. For being so into this hobby for so long and following it so closely, I have noticed changes…and I want to hear what some people are observing as well.

I do not want opinions.

I have every month for the last 15 years been attending the largest train show in the Midwest. I started buying religiosly in the very early 1990’s. At this time my main concentration was Postwar (like everyone else [:O]).

What is happening to the prices?

Example #1

When I would attended the train show one table would have lets say a Lionel 6462 gondola. It would be dirty, missing barrels, a little scratched up, etc. (Fine for some but basically junk in my eyes which I would never consider for my collection).

The price- $25.

I would walk to another section of the show and there would be a Lionel 6462 LN, boxed, packing slip, etc.(perfect for my standards)

The price-$35.

15 years later, the first car I described- $5. The second car I described- $85.

Why such a drastic change in the market?

Example #2.

Santa Fe F-3s (2243,2333,2343,2353,2383)

In the early 1990’s a UNboxed EX to LN Santa Fe- $500

Boxed with inserts, instructions, etc. $550.

Now, the first engine I described-$350. The second engine$1,200.

Do you guys see the pattern here?

Next to the prices, the other observation I have made is attendance of the show. No matter what time of the year, in the 90’s people were fighting over parking and getting into the place. The winter months would take 20min to walk to the front gate. You had to park in places that were not even on the same property!

Today? Much different story. During the winter months the parking lot would be consider a miracle if it became even 1/4 full. The summer months?..uh what cars

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I think the reason is that so much common post war material has made it’s way to the market as idiot sons and daughters are selling the collections of their fathers. Men who had trains for their kids in teh 50’s are now in their eighties and ninties and dying off. Their trains were run decades ago and they are in “played with” condition. Rather than keeping these in teh family, off to ebay or wherever they go.

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Ebay…

4

I have noticed this too in the New York area as well. I started my postwar collection in the early nineties and it was an entirely different scene.
And yes there is a huge difference in price between middle of the road postwar and the box really nice stuff. I wonder if this is because the really nice stuff is drying up. Either it’s tied up in collections or something else. Most stuff I see at shows is either garbage, or runner stuff at best.
As far as attendance. It’s dropped here as well. I have no idea why.

Mike S.

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there are those among us who like the “runner stuff”.

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I would agree that most of the stuff I see at the local shows is mostly the same old junk, show after show. Every once in a while someone will show up trying to unload all their train stuff for one reason or the other and I’ll find an interesting Item or a bargain. The TCA show at York is different. So much to see and so little time, however, I still see what I consider some grossly overpriced items.

Even if it is the same old junk, I still go because a bad day at a Train Show beats any day at work…[;)][;)][;)]

7

Part of it relates to the “Collectables” market in general. Today there are far fewer collectors…those who wanted everything, and were willing to accept examples that were of lesser quality (“gap fillers”) until they could find/afford “better”. Today, more people are happy to own a few PRIME examples in their area of interest. Many use these as part of their home or office decor. The days of “My collection is bigger than yours” may be comming to an end.
I also agree that eBay has played a big part. For a given item, you can see how common it really is, what condition it could be found in, and what the actual “sell” prices have been for the past month. It’s probably the best “educational tool” available. Joe

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Frank53,
No offense intended whatsoever. I am an operator as well. I’m merely stating that the range of offerings seems to include significantly less true excellent and like new pieces.

Mike S.

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LShel1,
I think you are right on target! I see the same thing on the west coast. It appears…to me that the “good” stuff is on ebay. Also I’ve been curious as how the remake of the postwar era affects the value of the original postwar articles. Also, can create the opportunity for conterfiet packaging, especially inserts appearing. I know you were not wanting opinions but that is what I’ve been watching for. It will be real interesting to see what show up at the TTOS national convention and CalStewart out here this fall.

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I go to this show in Wheaton every month. This is the start of my third year going to this show. The first year was busy but when the gas prices hit $3.00+ last fall, attendance dropped like a rock. Also sellers stopped coming due to the price of fuel. I seen very few deals in the last 6 months. Post war stuff went threw the roof and 60% of it is well used. I find the people that come to thin out or sell off there trains as a one time show have the best deals. I use ebay for hard to find or for a real steal. I spent more money at the train shows than ebay

11

I try to go to the local TCA meets and what ever local shows come around. I’ve been into the hobby for about 8 yhears now and I do notice that there is a lack of quality stuff at the shows now. A lot of average pieces in OK condition, and even more in rough condition. It seems that the folks holding the “rare” and “mint” pieces are selling them elsewhere. ebay isn’t the only venue. With all the auction houses going online, even if not “live”, that’s where one would get the greatest number of qualified buyers bidding on a quality collectible.

It’s frustrating if you’re trying to find the great piece for the collection at a price a working man can afford, but if I were selling I’d have to like getting the higher selling price.

Tim

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I said ebay above because I think that ebay, and the internet overall has made it so folks don’t have to leave home to see what’s new, or to go looking for any specific model that they would usually have done via train shows (pre internet days). Even forums such as this have changed the way I explore my hobby. You can shop around online, ask questions here about models and manufacturers, and purchase from online dealers. Something that we used to have to wait for the yearly train shows to do.

The internet has really helped this hobby, and all hobbies in so many ways. Not just shopping, but by making it possible for us all to gather here from all over the world and discuss all things to do with our passion. Unfortunately, it also takes some (maybe many) away from the shows. Which used to be the place to meet, discuss and shop for trains.
Also, I think perhaps not all, but many of the vendors sell online via ebay or a web store. This may be why the shows have only junk and/or the overprices stuff. Some bring the stuff that doesn’t sell online hoping to unload it. The better items they bring have to sell for more to help cover the cost of doing the shows.

I go to every train show in my area I can get to, because I like to see and hold the items I am interested in. At the last show I went to last month I had a list of items I wanted and $500 in my pocket, but found little that I was searching for. The things I did find were overpriced. My son said to me “Isn’t that a train you liked”? and I responded “Yep, but I’m looking for the one that isn’t made of gold!!”. I’m not attacking these folks. I appreciate that they do the shows, and they need to make money to continue to do them. The internet has changed the way we do our hobby. In better, and worse ways.

Bobby

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Two reasons:

1 - Ebay has made old trains more accessable. That means “runner” grade stuff can’t be sold as hard to find any more. People at shows realize this. It’s made the pricing more realistic, and is a good thing in my book. If you’re a seller, you’d be crazy not to consider Ebay. The market audience is so much bigger than a show.

2 - People are collecting the good stuff and don’t have much use for the “runner” stuff. That being said, I’m a runner guy. Not a collector. The played with stuff needed to have a price correction. The good quality stuff is just appreciating.

Jim

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I’m going to a train show tomorrow, Serb Hall in Milwaukee. To tell you the truth the reason I’m going is just to get out of town to see something different. Cabin fever I guess you’d call it. But I also want to buy something as long as I’m making the trip. The last time I went to a show was maybe 4 years ago in Wheaton. Never liked the Wheaton show, always to crowded. I guess from what I hear that has changed. Another reason I’m going though is that I want to be around other people with the same interest. I think the e-bay internet buying may have a limited lifespan if train shows could come up with a “catch” to get people to come. I’ve kind of tired of e-bay, I think I’d rather go somewhere and meet people and enjoy the day. How long can you stare at a computer before you become bored?I’ll see what its like tomorrow. Will report back and hopefully have something in hand to show.

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Not to mention $8 or $9 bucks just to walk in the door.[xx(]

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If it weren’t for Ebay I probably wouldn’t be in this hobby. Train show? Whatever that is, they sure don’t have them in my neck of the woods! Gun and knife shows, boat shows, etc. are held almost weekly, but a train show, no way.

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I would say eBay has some impact on postwar, but overall toy train technology is MUCH more of an issue - look how many new trains have been recreated/produced over the last 10 years. If you are an operator, you are buying new stuff because it looks good, it looks different ,and the wheel/rolling technology is so much better. Yes, I am shopping eBay, and the handful of boxed postwar items I had went for stupid money there. Since I am now converting to TMCC, my postwar engines (two steam and one diesel) will likely become shelf piece or Christmas tree trains.

And the show entrance price is indeed a big bearing; the GATS show in Knoxville was a week ago; even with the coupon it was 7.00 to get in. So I am looking a 170-mile round trip, 14.00 at the door for my son and I, and no gaurantee that the quality of the vendors or the displays would justify the travel.

Hobby and antique shows in general are down in both attendance and quality, and frankly, the market itself is permanently changed due to the internet in general. You just don’t have to go searching in your car to find a deal any longer.

As for the disparity in pricing on nearly identical items, it is simple market forces. If I was serious about COLLECTING postwar, I would certainly be buying the best - LN/OB, etc. I would not be looking for anything of lesser quality just to own it. What has happened is that the literal millions of Lionel small steamers, low-buck cars, and high production diesels that got played with hard are not big dollar draws. You are going to have price it low to sell it. The guys I really feel sorry for are those who ‘invested’ heavily in MPC - at best moderate quality, somewhat repetitive car construction, and even if mint, these trains are caught between the high-end postwar market and the modern era TMCC / Command ready material and hi-rail semi-scale era. That means shopping for a buyer is even harder.

My feeling is the train show itself may need to change into something that

18

My observation here in Europe is that people interested in the hobby start to grey. There are only a few small boys and girls on the floor and they usually come with daddy.
Well, Ebay also made Lionel more accesible to Europeans and you see some more Lionel-activity on trains shows in Europe, but usually (no matter what the quality is) the prices are much higher than on Ebay, or what you mention. Lately I saw a standard 2657 caboose with two dents for 40 Euros and a standard red postwar SP caboose for 20 Euros (dusted without a box).
So, I stick to Ebay!

19

Boxes seem to be very, very important to some. In 1966 Lionel made several operating signals that came in what is referred to as “blister packs”, you know like what razor blades and nuts and bolts are packaged in. Unopened 1966 blister packs are simply hair raising in their prices! And the same item without a blister pack goes for comparitively next to nothing. Same goes for 1945-69 sets… I mean outfit boxes. Compare the individual items contained in a outfit, especially a high end outfit like a 13150 with one in a set box. $2,000 or $3,000 extra for a cardboard box is what you’ll wind up paying! Even empty loco and car boxes can go for hundreds of dollars. And then there’s the Plastic Ville USA items that were repackaged by Lionel in Lionel’s own boxes during 1958-63. Without the box, most are cheap. With the box? Worth a fortune! There was a “general style” flat car made in 1964 or 65 , maybe No. 6403 that came in a really flat box, maybe an inch high or so. Without the box? $5.00 With the box ? $500 by some accounts. It goes withouit saying that there seems to be a great difference in value of an item whether or not in has a box or not. Over the years many of the boxes were tossed away and doubtless this practice still continues today with current production. Oh, another one was the 6816 and 6817 dozer and scrapers. The price of the individually boxed 6816-100 and 6817-100 is $2000 or so. Boxed 6816 or 6817 cars with loads go for less than half of those. If at all possible try to find nice EXC or LN items WITHOUT boxes, you’ll save big! Ever see an item referred to as MIB? Well that’s not Men In Black rather it’s Mint in box. Prices for such postwar items are in the stratosphere!

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E-Bay Killing it , the hobby,I don’t think so with about 24000 + items, I would likely say that the oppiste is happenung. More people are getting otr trying to get better deals on E-bay. Check it out…
http://toys.search-desc.ebay.com/lionel_Model-RR-Trains_W0QQcatrefZC3QQfclZ3QQfromZR2QQftsZ2QQsacatZ479
laz57