I’m thinking that the new layout in the new house will be set in the year 2014, when crude oil is going for $300/bbl and a gallon of gasoline is around $10. (Pick your own poison as to WHY - I’m not including that in the scenario)
Due to this, the railroads are swamped with business and spinning off deactivated routes to shortline operators both established and start-up. Old sidings are being revamped and new ones laid down in cities from coast to coast as ever smaller industries are starting to ship by rail. Boxcars are even making a comeback, and sometimes older rolling stock from the 1980s and 1990s is being pressed back into service when available. Almost every good-sized town has a new team track and the larger ones have small intermodal facilities to allow containers to be offloaded to trucks for (very) short hauls as needed.
I haven’t done too much research on the particulars, but my shortline may be a former CSX branch to a fictional Ohio River port city that is experiencing a rebirth thanks to an uptick in river traffic. Since the class-1 needs the little guys more than ever, they help out whenever possible, maybe providing a modern locomotive or two and contract diesel servicing.
I only see one problem. By the time your layout approaches completion it will BE 2014 - and reality may well rain all over your parade. (Somebody will develop a process using coal-eating algae that excrete sweet crude oil, the US will be energy independent, all those Powder River mines will trade in their flood loaders for algae vats and ship by pipeline, we can tell all the OPEC folks to drink their [:#] oil…)
One very well known science fiction author once said, “Never write anything that will be proven wrong in your own lifetime.” Then he wrote of a bunch of backyard mechanics (albeit rich ones) building and launching a moon mission (from Colorado!) one step ahead of the sheriff and a process server. Later he was invited to an Apollo launching by NASA.
As you might suspect, I sometimes write science fiction, but NASA hasn’t invited me to anything.
Of course, you can move the whole shootin’ match to an alternate universe. Then you can do anything you wish. Just stay out of Universe 13, Alfred E. Neumann. That’s my territory.
Chuck (Modeling Central Japan in September, 1964 - mining coal in an area that never had a colliery)
Having spent 40 years in the “earl bizzness”, I totally disagree with your projection - which as Chuck indicated, 2014 reality will hit you in the smack in the face when you are still working on the layout.
However, I do like your idea of the RRs having to pull out all the stops to get the job done. This is exactly what happened during WWII. I would like to have another reason (other than war) for this to re-occur, and maybe the demise of the Interstates would do the truck. Meaning, trucks were local, and not long haul…
Or, you could set your original scenario into play, but use 2034 as the timeline…
Speaking of pulling out all the stops, I just read an article on the increase in crude oil shipments by rail because of the delay in pipeline construction.
A 300% increase in gas prices in less than a year would devastate the economy to the point that there would be no demand to ship things. A 125% increase over five years almost broke our backs.