So my wife and I entered a rather long and protracted debate about the lack of oil and the future of cars last night.
This is what we came to as a conclusion: The days of cheap petro is over. With China’s industrialization, and entrance into the modern world, the oil demand will always exceed supply. If we continue to pump oil at the current rate, mathematical forcast predict that in 10 years, gas will be ~$15.00-$18.00/gallon (based on todays prices, not including predicted inflation)
Then we started to think about alternative energy sources.
Batteries don’t have much energy life, take a long time to recharge, contain toxic chemicals, and have a finite life expectancy before they have to be replaced.
Fuel cells are delicate, and the hydrogen to power them takes up more space than gasoline, and is a lot more dangerous to store.
There really isn’t enough farm land to supply every vehicle for alternative fuel substitutes (ie: bio-diesal) from common crops like soy.
So what does this have to do with the return of steam trains? Following the predictions of fuel cost, transportation cost using diesel engines would skyrocket for both trucks and diesel engines. Could coal fed steam be the logical alternative?
While not as cheap as diesal trains by a long shot today, what about 10 years from now when that diesel does cost $15/gallon?
There are plenty of boiler fed cargo ships still around today. So it is still somewhat a viable option cost wise to operate this way.
I’m not saying that it IS going to happen. Just an interesting “what could” happen.
I usually sit in the MRR forums, but I thought this topic of better interest here.