The expanded Panama Canal opened today, June 26, 2016. Now, how long before we see what impact (if any) this has on volumes at eastern ports and on the railroads?
I don’t think we will see much of an impact. I think Western Europe and Africa will see the brunt of the change.
Reuters reported it, so it must be true: [^o)]
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-panama-canal-idUSKCN0ZC0Q9
A recent discussion topic here:
http://cs.trains.com/trn/f/111/p/255191/2853904.aspx
An opinion from western Kentucky:
http://www.kentucky.com/news/business/article86082827.html
Anyone know what’s the latest on that canal in Nicaragua?
Tick, tock, tick, tock …
Todays Chicago Tribune has an aticle about and a photo of a Panamax ship making a test entry into a new lock.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-panama-canal-expansion-20160626-story.html
Can the big ol’ ships built for shipment through the enlarged Panama Canal really go all the way the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers to Kentucky? Would that be cost competitive with unloading onto a train at an Atlanic or Gulf port?
LOL, No, the bridges over the rivers would need to be rebuilt and the rivers would need to be dredged for the increase in draft.
I would be careful of any source from Kentucky, I used to live in that state and the state officials there are just butt stupid…same with their Senators and Congress critters. Could be the Whiskey or Burbon.
People forget the U.S. Economy increases it’s import of goods by over a Trillion Dollars a year and capacity plans that made sense 10 years ago are probably out dated today. Pretty sure they will build even bigger ships to ship containers to the West Coast. Right now Panama Canal still has a size limit on Container ships that can transit. More importantly they have a speed limit because the speed and or wake generated increases the need to dredge. Ships still have to drop anchor on both ends of the Canal and wait because of the congestion.
Nicaraqua’s canal is a environmental disaster waiting to happen and thats the only reason they could only find the Chinese to attempt it. China doesn’t care what happens to Nicaraqua environmentally, they just wanted the money.
This business all the Western railroads will lose all their bridge traffic is nonsense, at most this is a suppliment not a replacement. Even with two canals, there will still be ships waiting in line for their turn to transit either canal. Still can’t wait to see the collapse of Nicaraqua’s system which should take about 4 years after opening…so we won’t have two open canals for very long (ha-ha).
Remember also the United States has not started to ship
I wasn’t about to characterize the intelligence of that Kentucky pundit as was done above - I spent some years in Tennessee and agree that the inhabitants of that place to the north live in their own universe. As for a new-Panamax ship cruising up the Mississippi - just look at a map, folks. The Big Meander is NOT a comfortable fit for a ship a quarter of a mile long drawing 40 feet of water. Rather like trying to ride a jet-ski in a typical backyard pool. I rather suspect that those big ships will transload to barges (for low cost) or trains (for speed at a higher cost) in or near New Orleans. And, for total time, the fastest route from China to Kentucky will still be overland from the West Coast.
Chuck (Long time ago Merchant Marine cadet)
New Panamax ships are estimated to carry 12,000-14,000 TEUs (Twenty Foot Equivalent Units)…
However, Triple E or “Chinamax” ships now coming on line are too large to go through the new Panama canal - New Panamax ships have a beam of 49 meters and a draft of 15.2 meters, but Chinamax ships have a beam of 65 meters and a draft of 24 meters
The CGA CGM Benjamin Franklin is an example of a Chinamax ship - it can carry 18,000 TEUs and has called at Oakland and LA/Long Beach - here it is at Long Beach…
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) Globe is capable of hauling 19,000 TEUs…
So wherever the Chinamax ships go - they must go the long way around as they don’t fit any of the short cuts. 24m draft is approximately 75 feet - to the best of my knowledge max draft in US ports is approximately 59 feet.
Now on the National Defense side of things. U.S. National Security just improved quite a bit in being able now to accomodate most U.S. Navy Ships through the Canal…I wonder if finally an Aircraft Carrier will fit?
Insane as this may seem, there was a report yesterday that was advocating West Memphis as an alternative ‘deepwater port’ (that was the term I recall hearing them use) to Mobile. Now, I’m fairly sure this wouldn’t involve Panamax-size ships, but I have to wonder if some of the proponents of the idea entirely understand ship size as well as they should.
I note peripherally that the Chinamax spec explicitly indicates the ships aren’t expected to go under any bridges to reach their docking facilities.
BaltACD, you are spot on. To head to Europe the Chinamax ships have to go around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa
However, to get to the US West Coast is, of course, a direct shot from China. CGA-CGM, CSCL, and Maersk all have ordered large fleets of these Chinamax ships, also known as Triple E.
LA, Long Beach and Oakland have all invested to be able to dock and service these ships - there are pictures out on the net of CGA-CGM Benjamin Franklin docked at all three. I don"t have confirmation but I would guess Seattle, Vancouver and Prince Rupert will be getting ready for them also.
18,000 TEUs (Twenty Foot Equivalent Units) is 9,000 40-foot containers.
A train of 150 wells could carry 300 40-foot containers, so each one of these Chinamax ships carries the equivalent of 30 double stack trains of 150 wells.
Of course, a lot of the freight landed on the West Coast stays on the West Coast, but with approximately 2/3 of the US population still living east of the Mississippi River, there will still be considerable container business for BNSF and UP to haul from West Coast ports even with the opening of the expanded Panama Canal.
There is a lot of interesting information on Chinamax ships out on the Web that comes up with Google searches of either “Chinamax ships” or “Triple E ships”.
It would actually be a great article for a future Trains volume - “The Ships That Fill The Transcon And Sunset Routes” or something of that nature.
Although as you point out the Port of Los Angeles can accommodate Chinamax sized ships there are still major capacity issues there in unloading the massive amount of containers in a reasonable timeframe and ships of that size are not currently using the port on a regular basis:
The best answer I could find from a web search was “probably” (in other words dimension-wise they should fit)
Does anyone know for sure?
Everything I can find online says even up to the Newest Ford Class Carriers should fit thru now. Her beam is 41 Meters at the waterline however she is 78 Meters wide at the flight deck so hard to say. The America Class LS will fit easily so the Marines will have an Easier time of getting around the world.
Any guess how soon there will be a shut down of one or more locks for more than 24 hours ?
If you look up the stats on the carrier it is pretty clear
Nimitz Class:
| Length: | - Overall: 1,092 feet (332.8 m) - Waterline: 1,040 feet (317.0 m) |
|---|---|
| Beam: | - Overall: 252 ft (76.8 m) - Waterline: 134 ft (40.8 m) |
| Draft: |
Both classes would fit if the waterline beam was all that mattered but the beam at the flight deck precludes their use of the new Panama Canal locks.
Isn’t that something. All that money and effort spent to upgrade the canal, and the ships coming online can’t make use of it…
How far would $5.2 billion go toward creating a grade-separated non-stop rail route through Chicago?