Both classic DC and DCC power and control as we know them will be gone in 50 years.
A layout with powered track will be an anachronism. As battery energy density improves (smaller batteries with more power), more and more model railroaders will switch to batteries for locomotive power. There will be a form of DCC, but the decoders will be a type of encoded radio receiver rather than reading the signal off the rails. Reversing modules for loops, dead-vs. live-frog turnout debates, track conductivity issues and all that will be a thing of the past. Only battery recharge tracks will be powered.
This is already happening in large scale to some extent. Over the next five to ten years it will not only gain more followers there, but it will migrate at an accelerating pace into O scale, then in coming years will move into the smaller scales.
Fifty years from now, rail-powered models of any sort will be looked at in the same way as clockwork trains from the early 1900s are seen now.
Brunton, you’re right of course. In the long run, self-contained battery power is the way MR will go. But, as Keynes said: “In the long run, all of us are dead.”
Improvements in battery storage capacity (energy density, in jargon) are, and will probably continue to be, incremental. That’s because battery technology is old, literally hundreds of years old. The big revolutionary gains have been squeezed out already. This is why, in spite of many incentives and a willing market, the electric cars that we were promised in Popular Science have not yet come to market. (Please, no conspiracy theories here! The vast deep pockets of the space program are driving innovation in energy storage as fast as it can go.)
The gains in energy density are measured in percentage points per year. HO needs probably an order of magnitude increase, N scale, with 1/8th the volume, more like two. At a few percentage points a year, that’s going to take a looong time. Our kids may see it, our grandkids probably will, but IMHO 50 years is optimistic.[2c]
I remember an article a few years back that was titled, “Whatever happened to the atomic car?” Back in the 1950’s, what we now call “futurists” were predicting small nuclear reactors to power trains, planes and automobiles. In fact, nuclear energy was going to be so cheap that it would no longer be cost-effective to even bother measuring how much you used. “Power too cheap to meter” was the glorious future we were assured was coming.
The battery in your car has barely changed in the last 75 years. Sure, we’ve got tiny wristwatch batteries that last for years, but I suspect most of the improvement in watch battery technology comes from more efficient watch electronics which draw less power, rather than better battery life.
No, I don’t think the technology is going that fast. If anything, the hobby itself is making the process more difficult, with the growth of N-gauge and its much smaller engines. We still need a motor, electronics and enough weight to hold the engine on the tracks. Sure, lead-acid batteries would provide weight, but lithium-ion batteries don’t do much for you in that department. And nobody wants to drag around a head-end boxcar full of batteries, either.
Powered rails are a solution which has served us well for a long, long time. Other than a few minor inconveniences, there is no overwhelming reason to move away from this system.
Seems to me MR or RMC had an article in the seventies or eighties about how a guy had converted an Athearn F7 A-B set to battery / radio control, with the batteries and radio receiver in the dummy B unit. He demonstrated it by putting a piece of flex track on a desktop and starting the engine up, and everyone watched with amazement as the engine ran off the end of the track and kept going!! Given how long ago it was, it’s kinda surprising nothing has happened since then. I suspect DCC probably delayed the introduction of commercial battery/radio control for the smaller scales, although as noted it’s very common in garden railroading now.
IMHO, it’s not batteries so much as mini-tubines and the like that may be the future of model railroading power. Of course, that’s in the far, far future.
With respect to car batteries, there are some new innovations out there. The NiMH (nickel metal hydride) batteries in my Prius are vastly different than in a typical car. But they come at a cost in that they are expensive to make and still have an environmental impact (probably a smaller one than a comparable acid-lead battery, but still pose a hazard).
Rechargeable battery technology does seem to be improving as the years wear on. The idea of not drawing power from the rails is very exciting; although I haven’t had significant problems with dirty track or power drops since I drop feeders every 3 feet or so, I would love for someday the only wiring on my track to be for the signals. I love my DCC, but no so much that I couldn’t be convinced that there’s something even better.
I can believe that some over-the-air DCC-like system with internal power for the locos is coming, and probably long before 50 years from now.
Where I disagree is in the disappearance of DC and DCC as we know them now. As long as folks will collect and save legacy locomotives that cannot be converted to DCC or whatever new technology replaces it, there will be a need for DC.
Just like today you can still by record players. They sure aren’t as common as they were (I think I bought my last real vinyl record in the mid-late '80s), but since people still collect records, the technology must still exist to play them. DC will still be around forever, because some people will still own DC locos.
While I agree with the overall direction that Mark predicts, I don’t think it will be batteries that will run the trains - or much of anything in 50 years. Rather it will be a fuel cell, or specifically a micro fuel cell. They are already in development to power cell phones, laptops, hand power tools, and even smaller items like hearing aids. There have already been demonstrations that have powered cell phones for 30 days without recharging (or refueling in this case). Laptop manufacturers are aggressively persuing this technology because it will both lighten up a laptop and extend the running time (20 hours so far).
Lights, motors and sound systems are too much of a drain for batteries. Most diesels barely have room in them for decoders and sound systems let alone a good sized battery pack.
I doubt we will get away from coal generated electricity running through NS rails.[2c]
When it comes down to cost I have to agree, however some of the new Lithium ion batteries can power a car, hard to beat that kind of durability. if I had bet money on it, I would say batteries in smaller gauge trains may hit the market in 10 years. Garden scale already have the option, why can’t we?
Self-contained model locomotives of some kind will appear in the next 50 years.
But, the base of “rail powerd” equipment will still be around indefinitely.
An analagous situation occurs with O scale 3 rail, where despite the trend to scale sized equipment there still is a large base of “traditional” sized equipment, based on 15 1/2" curves.
That’s why I haven’t gone to DCC - it’s just a transitional stage! It’s like those early hi-def tv’s that are 3 feet deep and can only be viewed from one direction. [(-D]
The idea of self-powered independently-controlled trains is an intriguing notion to say the least. When that technology comes into the hobby, I might just consider retiring some of my old Blue Box locos.
Sound doesn’t need to be a drain on battery life simply because sound doesn’t have to be located in the loco. If the loco is controlled by RF, then the loco can emit a signal that can be tracked. A single receiver that compares direction with digitized version of the track plan can place the loco anywhere on the track.
If you know where the loco is, you can use stereophonnic sound to make decent sized speakers simulate sounds as coming from the lcoo.
There are self powered trains. The problem is, well, range, and how does one control it? Surely a DCC type system would be far more complicated trying to keep tabs on locomotives not tied to a system
Range is a fun one, here. How do you reliably control your Big Boy on your basement-filler without accidentally taking over the neighbor kid’s GP-whatever on the 4x8 in his bedroom?[%-)]
The system wouldn’t be any more complicated than present-day DCC, but, with uncontrolled distribution, it could be much more susceptible to cross-talk and interference. (Your neighbor’s wife locks her car door. You hear the ‘beep’ of her horn just as your FEF-3 backs out of the roundhouse and into the turntable pit…[(-D])
The one thing I don’t see is the complete disappearance of analog DC. There will always be primitive throwbacks like me who don’t want to put themselves at the mercy of technology they don’t understand and can’t repair in-house. Anyone who can wire a bulb to a battery can figure out how to wire analog DC.[^]
Chuck (modeling Central Japan in September, 1964 - analog DC, MZL system)