I was reading my latest Popular Science mag yesterday, and saw the page that had 25 years ago and 50 years ago, etc. and it made me wonder where MRR would be in the future. So here are “my” predictions, subject to discussion, debate, etc, ( we wouldn’t want it any other way would we guys & gals? )
Locomotives will be run with on-board power ( no track power required)
Wireless will be the mode of operation for all functions of MRR’g.
By taking a digital photo of any building, you will be able to feed the photo into your computer to generate a pattern which will allow you to build your own model, or send to a kit mfg who will supply you with the kit ready to assemble, or assembled…your choice.
A computer generated aging program will allow you to place your car into your specially equipped spray booth, and select automatically the proper colors to weather your cars or locos.
With 74 million “baby boomers” ( those born between 1946 - 1964 ) in just the U.S. alone, there will be a huge upsurge in the MRR hobby.
The detail and quality of cars and locos will continue to improve.
Wiring of the system will be a thing of the past. Wireless will make it obsolete. Building lights, loco power,switch motors, assessories, will all run via high energy, deep cycle batteries, that will recharge quicky.
I think you have a good list. Kingmill already has the rather neat idea of design and build a kit with their Kit-o-mat program working in conjuntion with their laser cutter.
And if it is done right the batteries will have capacity equivalent to a prototype locomotives fuel capacity. This will add the operational feature of having to fuel the model locomotives.
Umm without wires, how will one get the power to the batteries to recharge them? Certainly you don’t plan on going to every building, taking out the batteries, recharging them, then opening the buildings back up to replace them. Only a Tesla type wireless electrical system could charge them remotely, and that is now impractical without obsoleting all the existing wireless technology. Electrically speaking batteries are very inefficient. Not only in energy conversion, but also in logistics of recharging them. I can’t see batteries for things like building lights ever being practical. Nuclear power cells, or units that capture free electricity from the environment would be needed. Something that doesn’t require human action.
I think this might be closer than most people think. A few years back I saw a CAD controlled 3D milling machine. It coul
I remember all of the predictions in the 1950 era that all our cars would be auto driven and we would only set into the controller where we wanted to go by the sixties.&n
Well I’m still working on my predictions for 2006. After all being a charter member of procrastinaters International (I haven’t turned in my registration yet, but I will sometime if they ever sent me the form…), I should keep the traditions of their very accurate (but somewhat late) predictions going. So I predict that in 2006:
MTH will make a deal with UP to get rid of the licensing fees for use of their trademarks and many people will forgive MTH for being… well, MTH.
Bachmann will hit the market with their new Richmond 4-4-0 American just before Christmas.
Spacemouse will be back here at the forum after being too busy for several months.
Religion, Politics, and Advertising will continue to be banned here at the Forum.
As prices continue to rise and well detailed RTR becomes more dominant, HO will decline in per centage and become equal with N, S, and O scales.
TT will become a viable alternative filling the gap between N and HO.
The Echo Boomers will fill the ranks left by the departing Baby Boomers.
DCC with sound will become standard because it will be cheaper (relative to the cost of the loco) and easier to use.
#1 scale will grow slowly, but still be too expensive for most modelers.
G gauge will continue to be a mess of different scales and will stagnate.
Z scale will survive, but still have a small following.
A computer will be a standard part of layouts and be the central control for locomotives and accessories - the technology’s already there, but it will become universal and be integrated with power and controls. Makes DCC easy.
And really far out - holigraph technology will make scenery building obsolete.
The cost of tooling will go down to the point where acceptable models of any prototype will be available at reasonable cost (around the price point of BLI locos).
Model specific sound systems will become universal.
Getting repair parts for high tech locos will become a serious problem.
We’ll see diesel and electric locos with the correct number axle hung motors per truck, like on the prototype. But only in O scale and larger (this already exists, but only one motor per truck).
Technology will allow realistic 3rd rail to overhead trolley power transfers. This will result in a boom in modelling the North Shore Line and the Chicago Aurora and Elgin.
There will be a significant number of “non-techie” modelers who avoid any electronics.
Someone will have invented an HO coupler that does not entail the use of a wooden stick (or chopstick)to uncouple a boxcar. This is still the best kept secret of model railroading.
Well,
First, I forsee a combination of rechargable battery power locomotives controlled by wireless DCC or equivalent (no surprise there, I believe Garden Railroads already have such systems), but there will be sections of powered track on a layout where as the locomotive passes over the batteries will recharge (kind of like DCC programming track isolated from the regular system, these sections of powered track will be isolated by, well probably painted plastic track)
Second, (and this was touched upon before), 3-D Home Fabrication units will finally come down in price for home affordablity - $ 2400 is still a bit much for one :http://www.newscientisttech.com/article/dn10922-desktop-fabricator-may-kickstart-home-revolution.html, but $240.00 might work (and the question remains will you be able to use a series of digital stills to run thru software and create the control instructions for the printer - this would render many small model detail manufacturers obsolete, as well as making a laughable joke out of ‘licensing’ priograms (like any modeler is even gonna think twice about, for example, GM model licensing program restrictions - I know I’d have plenty of model Luminas, Astros, and LeSabres on my layout, and far from feeling any guilt I’d be going ‘Stuff It, Boys’).
Third, in conjunction with the above home fabrication - decals you can generate from whatever generation home printer is in use then. And the decals will look good and crisp, and will include white and metallics, and can be easily fixable so water doesn’t ruin them, and best of all the word ‘Alps’ will be forgotten by then. Oh, and the decal sheet will be so thin (yet sturdy) that even a light overspray will readily blend the decal into the model’s finish.
Fourth, real material advances in adhesives, tricking down from advance science to home level. I’m especially looking for a advanced CA which holds tight in tension and side-press
I believe the Edwards brothers (Keith and Dale) have already done that, for those willing to locate uncouplers correctly and install them right.
My own prediction is that ‘alternative rail’ (monorail and maglev) will start to develop a following, and that steam modeling will decline as the people (like me) who have seen steam in operation pass from the scene [:(].
Wiring will become much simpler, with ‘recharger tracks’ in engine service areas for onboard batteries replacing the spiderweb under the entire layout now needed for propulsion. OTOH, prototypically accurate signaling will still use wire, since a coil of #22 solid is LOTS cheaper than a bunch of electronic ‘where is it’ detectors.
Likewise, building illumination, switch machines and other fixed applications will remain the realm of hard-wired circuits (KISS lives!)
One thing will not change. Model railroading will still be fun.
Talking in the relative short term, say the next twenty years, I’d speculate that:
The hobby will essentially divide itself into two separate and competing factions: the RTRers (who will buy everything ready to go) and the true modelers (guys who would rather build-it-themselves).
In response to the slowly contracting marketplace, the quaility of locomotive models will truly approach the detail level of current brass. But so will their prices.
The hobby will have only two magazines of significance: MR and RMC, each likely to have only about half the subscription base they do currently.
Virtually all the 2nd level manufacturers will be bought out by a couple of large wholesalers. Only Bachmann and Atlas will remain as independents. But horizon will withdrawn from the field!
Pre-built layouts will become much more common but will largely be in the price range of the more well to do hobbyist.
On-board power will indeed replace through-the-track power and, in a sense, DCC…and within the next ten years.
The remaining manufacturers will offer a great diversity of locomotives and rolling stock but only in very small pre-ordered/payment-up-front runs.
Hobby shops catering specifically to model railroaders will vanish, except for a few in major cities.
Folks will spend a good part of their hobby time on eBay (or something similar), attempting to locate affordable out-of-production items that fill their specific needs for filling out their loco’s and rolling stock rosters.
The typical freight car will sell for over $65, passenger equipment will start at $150, and locomotives…well, I’d rather not say! [:I]
Images of model railroads appearing in the magazines and on Websites will ALL be spectacular. But they will consist of sce
I am aware of a printer that produces a 3D output from powder and adhesive layers applied to a surface from the output of a CAD drawing. Awesome and capable of almost any MRR application, although more suited to structures as the powder/glue does disintegrate with age. $20K
Sears sells a device that mills wood into complex shapes from 3D modeling software that’s included with the device. Again, more suited to structures, but imagine being able to have nearly any scale structure you could want! $1800