Survey-type question:
Has the slowing US economy noticeably affected the frequency and/or
length of trains in your area?
To answer your question is yes, take a look at the link attach from Railway Age. On the second, page it give you a table on the 2007 output. You would see down of no. carloads.
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/sb/ra0907/index.php
Enjoy! Let me know if this answer your question. [{(-_-)}]
Interesting. Thanks.
Actually, I have read some of the statistics regarding
carloads for different railroads. But my thought was the economic
situation (as it relates to trains) might be affecting different parts
of the country, different lines, and different kinds of trains in
varying ways. I’d just like to read some non-scientific views and
opinions from trackside.
Lumber business is down significantly through Stevens Point. That happens when no homes are being built.
In addition to that, the line that I railfan most - the BNSF transcon - has lost a lot of i/e stack business. BNSF stack loadings are down more than 10% from last year and whether this is all on the transcon or not I can’t tell you, but from my 24 hour counts that I have gotten this year much if not all of that 10% is.
Carloadings, BNSF
Week ending 12/29/06 compared to the week ending 12/28/07
Box 17,932 16,262 -9.31%
Covered Hopper 63,984 68,930 7.73%
Gondola 11,146 9,794 -12.13%
Intermodal 16,580 15,812 -4.63%
Multilevel 4,974 5,029 1.11%
Open Hopper 62,503 60,528 -3.16%
Tank 34,468 38,516 11.74%
Other 12,156 12,357 1.65%
Total 223,743 227,228 1.56%
http://www.bnsf.com/investors/weeklyunits/20071229.pdf
The old addage on the railroads is “first to suffer-last to recover” in a poor economy.
I can argue with that.Most railroader’s worked during the depression and the resession of the 80’s when most folks didn’t.My Granddad was around the middle of the senority roster on the C&O in Russell,Ky. during the depression and had to go to Jackson,Ohio to work on the DT&I for about 2 years.But he worked.
Also the traffic in my area is quite brisk as far as run thru traffic.Now coal is down on the Pocahontas Division where I work,but it is in most areas of the country.
In the last two weeks when it was warm I did have a few 200+ car coal trains.One 225 the other 252.
When it comes to investing in railroad stock.Always an excellent investment.The NS’s stock got as low as $12 a share and as high as $57 before the economy started to slip some.[2c][:)]
Mack, I don’t agree at all, when I started railroading, most of the old heads were the guys who had hired out just prior to WWII, when business started picking up. They told stories of the fellows who hired out just prior to the depression and were furloughed for years. One older conductor, whose father hired out circa 1915, told me his father would make one trip or maybe two a pay period and that was only because the men holding regular jobs made an agreement to lay off one trip a pay period to try and keep as many men working as possible. This was on the NKP.
The early eighties was hard on a lot of people, too.
ValleyX I wonder if it had to due with the geoghaphic location of the railroad ?
As you know coal was the big factor in the railroads in this part of the country.And it was all the way until the early 1990’s.When I hired on in 1991,there was alot of folks unemployed and the railroads were hiring like crazy.Something like 700+ people showed up when I got hired.
My Dad who hired on the C&O in 1961 never once got laid off.
My Granddad (b.1896) hired on the Virginian r.r. in 1909 at the age of 13,went to the Southern in 1922,then got laid off in 1924 from the Southern in Lawerenceville,Va and hired in on the C&O in Russell in early 1925.Then like mentioned got laid off the C&O for two years,then never got laid off until he passed away in 1965 and was still working.
I think your argument could be right for certain areas of the country.[?]
Yeah the early 80’s.I remember it well .My dad lost his job and money was tight.Everyone pitched in.as for the railroads Csx is storing autoracks on the maw for better times.The Government can say what they want but the"R" word is here.
stay safe
joe
The definintion of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negetive growth. We may not reach that standard, as the economy has changed so much in the past decade. Manufacturing is not as important as it was…we are much more service based.
I agree with Joe. The R is here, if not physically, at least in spirit. Certain segments such as housing are experiencing tough times. That segment trickles down to an enormous part of the economy.
Looking at the data from Railway Age (that is a slick way of reading a magazine on line) the agricultural segment is doing really well. The farm commodity prices are at all time highs right now.
On the local level, I dont hear many extra’s being run on the NS. They got thru the holiday season without many extra intermodals. Two years ago they were running a couple extras per day in November and December on the Ft Wayne - Chicago NKP line. Perhaps the lack of extras is due to the addition of a couple of new scheduled trains such as 282 and 242.
My trucking friends are extremely cautious. While 07 ended fairly strong for some of them, they anticipate a drop in 1Q08 and are holding back on purchases.
I have always considered the trucking industry to be a very good economic indicator. They usually have a good handle on business.
ed
I talked to alot of my friends in the OTR trucking industry. No one and I mean NOBODY is ordering anything right now. I am hearing rumors of 2-3 larger companies like Millis and maybe Covenant and possibly Arrow going belly up in the next year. I trust the Millis one I got that one from the shop here those boys are SCARED TO DEATH and looking for work also Millis has gutted everyone they could and closed one training academy already.
the “R” word may be a reality in the next few years, but if rail traffic is any indicator [at least in my area] it’s nothing but “full steam ahead” …I wish it would slow down some…maybe there hasn’t been enough of a “trickle down” effect from other areas of the country, but so far I see no letup in freight traffic in my terminal. [2c]
It seems like there are those who feel that the economy is doing fine until it starts to affect those at the higher levels of the ecomomic ladder. When those at the top feel pinched, then it becomes a crisis.
I heard this saying some time ago. “When the ecomomy causes your neighbor to lose his job, it’s a recession. When you lose your job, it’s a depression.”
Some of our manifest trains are a bit shorter. This is kind of a slow time anyway so it’s hard to say how much is economic conditions overall or just the slack period.
It seems like we have lost trains going across Iowa. Again, this may have more to do with the railroad’s operating plans than the economy. There are a few trains that used to go thru here that now go on the BNSF using that new connection in Illinois. There are some coal trains that have been rerouted off this route because of the heavy track work done in the warm months. When the track work ended for the season, those trains didn’t come back.
The Short Pools have lost work to the Long Pool. Thru much of the constuction season, the Long Pool only gets the Z trains, two each way a day. Now they are getting back some of the intermodal (I and K symbols) trains.
For about the last month, there have been rumors that 60/65 trainmen will be furloughed. Their have been offers of permanent transfer to other locations. Some of these other locations had people who had been furloughed there working here earlier last year. The good news is they are still hiring here. Hopefully that means some traffic may be coming back, rather than hiring in Iowa and telling someone if the want to work they have to move somewhere else.
Jeff
The ex-Wabash and the Marion Branch go through my town. Both
lines are Norfolk Southern. The view, from a railfan perspective,
has been very similar to the figures Michael Sol showed above for
BNSF: manifests and stack trains have been noticeably shorter;
grain traffic is better than ever before in my memory; automotive,
while somewhat affected, has held up better than I thought it
would have. And, for some reason, Triple Crown Roadrailer business
seems like it is booming (only 1/3 of this is automotive–the rest
is general merchandise).
Joe:
I was out in West Central Illinois thursday and saw an NS Triple Crown train at Jacksonville that was HUGE.
Meanwhile just a few minutes ago there was an extra 230 on the NS (I30).
ed
Mack, the Valley took huge hits in the seventies and eighties, the Peavine did, too, as I suspect the Tad did. Columbus Terminal had people scattered all over the old Scioto Division working wherever they could. Part of the Valley’s problem was the inauguration of the ID pool and part of it was the economy.
Bellevue was down to two shifts for awhile in the early eighties.
ValleyX your right on some of the fellows getting moved around on the old Scioto.
Some of the Engineers in Williamson ended up in Portsmouth,and stayed there until retirement.And then some of the young brakeman went from Williamson to Columbus and stayed there.
I still work with some guys that were affected in the late 70’s early 80’s,but only a few say that they were laid off for more than 6 months.I know it was lean times according to some.But a few told me that they would be called out one day a month to keep their insurance going.I think it takes 7 days now to do that.
But I fill all in all the railroads will survive.It’s as we all know the best way to ship large amounts.But I think in the next,say 10 years,people will be a big item shipped by the railroads again [:D].Just so it’s not those big white boxcars I’ve heard people talk about [V].
You know I can still remember my Dad saying years ago ,“There always be a railroad”.And he also said,“The railroads have a big turnover every 10 years”.By that he said he refered to the hiring of people and retirements.Anymore I thnk it refers to mergers[:O].
In the hotel business it hasn’t slow down growth except this year. We are down![%-)] Let’s see what happens the 1st quater.