From today’s Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-08/railroads-couple-more-cars-as-housing-boost-shipments.html
I’ve noticed it too…seeing more lumber loads now than I’ve seen in years…
Not seeing bulkhead and centerbeam flats leaving storage out here.
There is a local train of lumber Monday-Saturday on the CN’s South Bend subdivision that has at least 10 to 20 center partition Bulkhead Flat Cars in the train each day it operates. It is Michigan to Indiana out of Battle Creek, MI.
Andrew
From TRAINSNewswire of this date Aug. 8,2012:
"Housing recovery boosts lumber traffic"Published: August 8, 2012
"…WASHINGTON – Overall lumber traffic on the rails in the first half of 2012 is up 10 percent over last year, reports Bloomberg. This is a sign that railroads are benefiting from an uptick in new home construction.
Housing starts are up 6.9 percent over the previous year as of June. However, lumber shipments are outpacing building rates, signaling a stockpiling of materials. Construction is still less than half the rate of 2005, considered to be the height of the housing bubble. At that time railroads hauled twice as much lumber as is being shipped today.
The Association of American Railroads reports lumber traffic on U.S. railroads in 2012 through July 28 is up 11.4 percent over the previous year…"
This is pretty much similar to the posting by Murray of the Bloomberg News story. Personally, I am not sure what to make of it. Real estate prices around here ( So. Central Kansas,area) seem to be still off between thirty and forty percent; As from where they were in 2007. The construction business for new construction is no where near the 2007 levels. Investment housing construction is sitting for long periods. Several contractors I am familiar with are staying working doing small remodels. Everyone seems to be awaiting the 2012 Nov. election results. Of course Boeing has announced they are pulling out of this area, and moving some ops to OKC and San Antonio. Their facility seems to be poised for a takeover by Spirit AeroSystems ( only fly in that ointment is their facility abuts McConnell AFB, and their is a rule about foreign use of US Facilities.</
Lumber guy here. I’m in southeast South Dakota. Our business has picked back up considerably from the last 2 years, but we are in a bubble that never got really bad anyway. In fact, we’re waiting for a couple of overdue cars right now. Thanks to all the new technology, we can pinpoint which yard our cars are languishing in. [sigh]
Now, if you’re at the other corner of the Dakotas- northwest North Dakota, those folks are in such a boom cycle that no one sleeps.
Maybe I notice the lumber cars more, because I’m in the business, but I feel like I’m seeing a lot more than last year. The big surprise, in our part of the world, I think is grain cars. Those things seem to be thicker and thicker these days.
I have been home the last couple days and have caught the Pasco Conway train for the BNSF/NS in Streator there are a Couple more loaded Centerbeams on it but not to much more on it. WV and PA are having a boom in certain areas for Gas also but with the Miners losing work there is going to be a Glut of Housing there.
If construction is increasing here, I’m not seeing it. Disclaimer: I’m not out and about very much, so it could be that it really is increasing and I’m not seeing it. Within the past year three small houses have been built in a spot where I saw them, and my wife and I both remarked how unusual it was to see housing construction happening. There is only one commercial construction project going on here that I have seen, although two or three national chains are taking over existing space that was vacated by stores closing.
The major factor could be Tallahassee’s odd economy - state government is the only industry, and when state government has the sniffles the local economy is at death’s door with pneumonia, flu and fever all at once. Things are not good for state employees right now, since they have not had a pay increase (even to keep up with inflation) for five years or so, and this year had to start contributing three percent of their salaries to the retirement fund. Everyone I know is just trying to hang on until times get better. Hope things are better where you are.