Being retired I have become somewhat of an interested, casual observer of the passing parade.
The Pols on TV are either predicting that ‘happy times are here again’ or the American economy is about to go over that cliff.
Living near the BNSF Transcon I am reminded of how well things are or are not doing. Two years ago when we moved out here traffic was amazing. Trains passing ea ch other day and night and rolling at something anywhere between four and ten per hour. These days and times it seems like it’s down to somewhere between one and four per hour. Sometime a few more and other times you don’t hear any. Mostly it is container trains, in both directions, with some grain moves, The occasional merchandise train and an occasional all tank train move. Admittedly there seem to be times when the activitie spikes, but only brief periods.
The reading in TRAINS Newswire Union Pacific has had a good quarter. CSX is surging, BNSF had a good quarter. and then you see an article such as this from New York Times: Linked here
You go into a “BIG BOX STORE” [Take your pick as to which of the national ones] Look at the merchandise on the shelves, see gaps in merchandise, and empty spaces (more than usually).
The Grocery depts of Wal-Mart and Target are down on merchandise stocking levels .
Agree - my perception is that the economy and hence rail traffic volumes are ‘checkerboard’ = schizophrenic or ‘bi-polar’. Actually, not quite that extreme or ‘black-and-white’. It’s really a mixed bag - more like a color picture that’s made up of lots of little dots or market ‘niches’, and some of those dots are the same, some are worse, some are better . . . there’s no discernable broad pattern or consistency . . . just like with people, the total picture is pretty much the sum of the random individual parts. A long time ago, Railway Man observed here that people like - even demand - simplification, and don’t do well with nuances, or explanations or conclusions that are longer than ‘sound bites’. But this issue nevertheless seems to be one of those complex multi-faceted matters . . .
Some days the rail traffic on the nearby NS Reading line seems down, other days are busier. I rarely see the Lehigh Line, but I can hear it - and it seems about the same.
Yesterday I ran across a PowerPoint slide from an NS presentation at its 9th Annual Norfolk Southern Short Line Marketing Meeting on July 12, 2010 by Mark D. Manion, Executive Vice President Operations, at - http://www.nscorp.com/nscorphtml/pdf/mdm071210.pdf (12 pages, approx. 823 KB in size). Let’s see if I can copy and paste it here [emphasis added - PDN]:
My take is with 10% unemployed, we have stopped getting worse. It may take 3 years to get back to where we were. This may be good news for the folks that kept their jobs but bad news if you think your old job is coming back anytime soon. I hear a lot of shoppers don’t like the rummage sale at WalMart. They may be going back to Target, Kohl’s Penny’s (depending on merchandise).
Book stores may be the next to follow record/CD stores & rental movies to close. Kalmbach may have to be careful when you get MR on your Ipad.
The power of our leaders goes up if the citizens believe the economy is good, and it goes down if the citizens believe the economy is bad. It really makes no difference whether the economy is actually good or bad. In the final analysis, it only matters what the voters believe about the condition of the economy.
So the media talks down the economy or talks it up depending on whether they want to help or hurt the people in power. They blew icy cold air on a good economy in 2007. Today they are Pollyanna on a horrible economy. It is pretty obvious they are blowing smoke when they come up with the nonsense called a “jobless recovery.”
Sam, have you thought about going through the 2Q results of all of the major railways, and then putting a post together comparing the 6 (7 with KSU) of them?
CP finally released their results this morning. Perhaps the live webcast may be of interest to some?
Canadian Pacific announces second-quarter 2010 results
Canadian Pacific released its second-quarter financial and operating results at 7:30 a.m. Eastern time (5:30 a.m. Mountain time) on July 28, 2010.
CP will discuss its results with analysts and the media in a conference call beginning at 11:00 a.m. Eastern time (09:00 a.m. Mountain time) on July 28, 2010.
- participants dial in number: (647)427-7450
- Toll free dial in number: (888)231-8191
Callers should dial in 10 minutes prior to the call. A replay of the conference call will be available by phone through August
The numbers say that we are about 1/2 way back to the peak of Fall 2007 from the bottom of Spring 2009. It’s not uniform, though. Domestic intermodal is close to all the way back while construction material is just dead-dead-dead, still, with everything else somewhere in between.
So, YOY comparisons to 2009 make things look really great, but compared to the peak of 2007/08, not so great. 2009 was really, really bad. (really!)
The power of our leaders goes up if the citizens believe the economy is good, and it goes down if the citizens believe the economy is bad. It really makes no difference whether the economy is actually good or bad. In the final analysis, it only matters what the voters believe about the condition of the economy.
So the media talks down the economy or talks it up depending on whether they want to help or hurt the people in power. They blew icy cold air on a good economy in 2007. Today they are Pollyanna on a horrible economy. It is pretty obvious they are blowing smoke when they come up with the nonsense called a “jobless recovery.”
You bring up an interesting thought. In my little corner of the world, our business (lumber and building materials) is about even with 2009, but way down from what we call the “boom times” of around 2007. Compared to an average year, 2010, for us, is probably down somewhat. Compared to the boom years, it’s slid off the cliff.
Is there any kind of average, or optimum year, that the railroads, or any other businesses use to make comparisons? We had hit a point during the boom times, when we were too busy for our own good. Had the railroads reached that point, before the downturn?
I don’t see the economy riding a rollercoaster. It seems to be riding consistently on the bottom with very little growth, if any. I think that all the cheerleading for a recovery this year gave a little boost to consumer confidence as the year began. But there was no concomitant spurt in job creation, so the rah-rah was quick to fade. The numbers released just today show a declining economy since the first quarter of this year. Yet here is an article that says the recession ended in the middle of last year:
However, the article laments that low consumer confidence might lead to a double dip. Double dip? From my perspective, if it can be as bad as it is now and not actually be in a recession, why should I worry about a double dip? If the recession ended a year ago, as the article says, then the economy seems to be perfectly capable of being bad, dip or no dip.
In response to the request by “samfp1943” for comments on regional perceptions, may I offer a few for and within California, though I will hasten to add that I am not an “expert” nor fully cognizant of the numbers.
First of all, check out the Transit forum thread here re: “The San Diego Trolley with Photos.” Truly a fine looking system, and from all reports of San Diegans very highly utilized. Also in San Diego County is the Coaster, providing commuter service up and down the coastline, and another commuter line between Escondido and Oceanside, serving several colleges en route with bicycles allowed.
The Amtrak California Surfliner appears to be doing very well, from my own observations on board, especially on its Business Class cars, which are a delight (with newspapers, beverages, pastries, et al.) for those wishing some privacy, comfort, and amenities for only a modest upgrade.
Coast Starlight ridership seemingly (to me) is high, the route is comfortable, and the scenery beautiful. Stations up and down the state appear to be in good condition and well-managed.
The Metro in LA has had the well-known recent problem (not unlike the Washington DC incident), but has learned and presumbly effected rule changes. Regardless, the routes serve an amazing number of commuters in the Los Angeles area.
You all surely know more than I, but I trust my observations add at least some dimension to this thread topic.
Bucyrus: I tend to agree with your assessment, again it seems to be uneven in application. Over all it seems to tend downward, I hesitate to use something as strong as Depression, but certainly it is recessive.
The roller coaster would indicate some positive areas as well as some negative ones as well. Ed’s Houston area for a positive, and Murphy Siding’s indicators in South Dakota. The report today of the National GDP being at 2.3 % instead of the redicted 3.0%. I remember the 1982 as being a year that was a lot less than what had been advertised ( I was drivving OTR and I was looking at my loads through those years and 1982 was less than my expectations).
The automobile sector, is certainly sending mixed signals. THe local major Ford dealers prices are slowly ratcheting up, but no where near levels of two years ago. See lots of new GM and Chrysler products out on the road ( primarily pick-ups and SUV’s) their prices seem to be in the same mode as the Ford’s prices) I am afraid the new Volt is going to be a bomb ( my own opinion) In the Wichita area there do not seem to be a lot of the hybrid vehicles ( Mid-size cars and larger cars, not a lot of up-scale ones, apparent to the casal observer’ lots of pick-ups ( and apparently, many of the " Manly, man trucks"- big tires,shocks and ladders to mount up with ). The avialtion industry is somewhat schizophrenic, Hawker-Beachcraft is threatening to move the blue-collar jobs someplace other than here, (Unions have been toying too hard with them in recent times). Learjet just seems to keep on keeping on ( high end, really fast planes, for the fast,high flying crowd).
Boeing seems to snag just enough business to keep their people happy and occasionally hiring a few mpre employees, The scuttle-butt about Spirit( Boeing’s manufacturing and parts manufacturin
During September 2007 CP announced they were buying DME, and then CN followed by going after EJ&E. At that time I read a newspaper article stating that CP, BNSF, UP, NS and CSX were all suffering from congestion, and average train speeds were slower than they had been for the same period of 2006. CN was different, in that it was not congested, and average speeds were up from 2006. The article went or to say those 5 railways were all going through with capitol projects to ease choke points, so they could handle more business, while CN was looking at buying connecting lines to increase business.
I haven’t had a chance, until now, to post something odd I saw on June 26, 2010 at Keith, an overflow yard west of Calgary. This was just after the flooding between Medicine Hat, AB and Maple Creek, SK, that resulted in the 11 day closure of the mainline. Surely, one of the longest closures of the mainline outside of the mountains, in CPR history.
I expected this yard to be jammed beyond the breaking point with cars waiting to resume their journey east. Instead, all I saw were two long lines of loaded centre beam flats and some shorter lines of Procor tank cars. What shocked me most was where were the double stack containers coming from Asia? And where were the empty grain, potash, and sulphur cars returning to the prairies for more loads?
After a while of looking at this, I realized I had been saying it so much I thought of the song “Things That Make Me Want To Go Hmmm”. I left that yard much more skeptical about this “economic recovery” than I had been twenty minutes earlier.
The thought I have is, should the level of building materials be as high as it was in 2007? There was a lot of speculative building going on, without real buyers (people who actually intended to occupy the new premises.
Wasn’t it during that period that the sub-prime loan packaging operations were begining to hit their strides? The speculative building boom was kind of a knee jerk to that market? The wife and I were flipping houses( and built one during that period) . Material coust were begining to climb and we experienced spot shortages of different materials, with attendant cost spikes. Loan money was reasonable, and some lenders were almost at the stage of loaning if you had a heartbeat.
Right now the Banking/Finance community seems to be just sitting on their loan capital. Only loaning at higher rates, to folks who really don’t need to borrow. My perception of the future conditions is that individuals are running scared. They have essentailly stopped spending except for necessities, and waiting to see what the economy or the Government will bring to the table. The banks, I think are holding forclosed properties off the market, waiting to see what will happen to the consuming public. Also they do not want to push the market glut on available houses any more than it currently is. Last figures I saw for around here (Sedgwick Cnty- Wichita) was that we had over two thousand homes in forclosure, on the market already. Housing seems to have lost about twenty five percent of value in the last two years.
The rail traffic seems to be slow, not nearly at the levels of even a couple of months ago. BNSF seems to be fleeting trains through here (groups in either direction) followed by a lengthy gap til the next group. At least maintenance is on going. There was a CWR rail gang north of Mulvane placing r
Driving through a local ‘light’ industrial park recently, I was surprised - shocked, even - to see the large number of vacant and ‘For Lease’ or ‘For Sale’ buildings - it seemed to be well over 50 %. That was sobering . . . And this past weekend’s Sunday Morning Call (Allentown/ Lehigh Valley, PA area) had a page 1 feature article titled “The Market Just Disappeared” - although that related mainly to the higher-end single-family house building sector; it seems that there’s activity for the under $250K new houses. Also, the commercial/ retail sector seems to still be simmering, though not rapidly - building inspectors of that whom I know are still having busy days.
What you say about the banking/ finance entities seems correct - they’re not loaning much. (I’m not going to dignify them by calling them a “community”, because they have no interests other than their own selfish ones in mind - I think the correct term for even a bunch of sharks is a “school”.) But corporate interest rates are near all-time modern lows - there’s a lot of money out there seeking a safe investment with even modest returns. I would not be surprised to see alternatives to conventional banks springing up - they’re not doing the job, and no sane person trusts them anymore anyway - ‘just desserts’, in my view. BP should have tried plugging its well with investment bank