Resale value

Model Railroader General Discussion (Model Railroader)
1

I was curious about what drives the price on used locomotives and rolling stock beyond the quality of the model.

Here are some examples of what I am getting at. Take the Atlas S4 of which there have been many runs and I would say thousands sold. Which are likely to bring a higher price - those with common road names or those with the obscure roads? How does repainting (assuming it was done well) impact the price? Finally, what about weathering?

Now consider a locomotive that did not have as many produced as the S4. How does that impact the value?

Rick

2

For the most part, it is a crapshoot.

I will limit my comments to eBay where I buy and sell somewhat often.

Repaints and weathering do not increase prices. If anything, they turn away some interested buyers.

A lot depends upon the time of the year, the road name, the type of locomotive or rolling stock and the number of interested, potential buyers.

The best months to sell are December through March, and the least productive months are May through October.

Obscure road names sell slowly and the most well known road names take a little more time than the less well known road names. Road names such as NYC, PRR, ATSF and UP for example are popular, but eBay is flooded with those road names.

Freight diesels sell better than passenger diesels or switchers. Steam locomotives still sell quite well.

In terms of rolling stock, cabooses linger on eBay forever. Boxcars flood the eBay listings, as do tank cars. Hoppers, gondolas, reefers and covered hopper sell well.

One other issue is brand. Atlas is a good name and sells well. Athearn is popular as well. Bachmann sells well especially the Spectrum line. Broadway Limited Imports do well with certains lines but not so well with other lines. Then, there is Walthers, Walthers Proto, the old Life Like Proto 2000, etc.

Of course, price is king. If it is overpriced, it lingers. If it is underpriced, usually something is wrong with the item. Auctions sell faster than Buy It Now, but usually return a lower price than Buy It Now, except where two bidders compete and jack up the price. Seller feedback rating is crucial.

This is all based upon my experience. If this thread goes on long enough, you will get one hundred different opinions.

As I say, it is all a crapshoot.

Rich

3

Thanks. I had a recent post about a re-paint shortcut. I originally considered using one of my ATSF Atlas S4s for the project, but I thought that down the road that locomotive would sell better as ATSF than USS. I also had a blue box switcher that has been sitting around unused for years that I considered putting a decoder in and repainting, but I wanted a better running unit.

I have so many projects in the job jar that can take precidence over weathering locomitives and rolling stock that I will put that off until I am in need of a project for something to do.

Rick

4

Rick,

Using eBay as an example: It’s whatever the seller wants to sell it for and what price the buyer is willing to buy it at. It doesn’t matter how old/rare/vintage the item is…or if it’s NIB, used, or non-running…a seller will choose a price that they think the item is worth or what they would like to get for it.

Availablity, rarity, name, numbers of runs, condition, etc. can have an impact on value but not always. I’ve seen two “new” essentially identical items posted on eBay - the SAME day! - asking less than MSRP and twice MSRP. I’ve seen beautiful brass engines being sold for a song and heavily tarnished ones (some with missing pieces) go for well-over what they are worth.

Some folks will pay out the nose for a good weathering job while others want the paint on their locomotive or rolling stock pristine or undecorated - as in the case of some brass. It’s difficult to predict what the impact will be on an item’s value in a buyer’s eye. I do think a bad weather job or paint job will definitely detract from the value of an item.

If why you are asking the question is for determining resale value at a later time then the determining factor is “when”. If you are talking about the near future (<5 yrs) then you may want to be conservative on what you do (or not do) to your locomotives and rolling stock. If your talking 20-30 years (or longer) then I’d say “love 'em & run 'em” and don’t overthink their value. The market for used MRRing in 20-30 years could be complete bust. Enjoy them now how you’d like them to be…

Tom

5

I just don’t like making stupid mistakes.

While I would like to think it would be 20 - 30 years before they are sold at age 70 I don’t think I should plan on it. Will it be 5 years? That depends on my health. One scenario would be knowing that the end is coming and I have time to sell stuff off myself.

The other is my estate needing to deal with it. I am fully aware that at that point I won’t care. Like I said earlier I don’t like making stupid mistakes. Sounds like it doesn’t matter for what I am thinking about.

Rick

6

It is all supply and demand at its finist. Bought a bag of stuff at a train show and a peice was thrown in, that peice was sold on e-bay for $35 and I have paid for stuff that was well done but would not sell, like no buyers. Time has a lot to do with it and not so much wealth but attitude. Knew a guy of means who would not budge on price on a train item but turn arround and buy lunch for the group which cost him way more.

7

Ever watch Pawn Stars? I have seen plenty of times when someone found something old and polished it up which ruined the value.

I want to avoid stupid mistakes like that. Sounds like that isn’t an issue here.

Rick

8

I agree, Rich.

When I decided to backdate my layout, I offered some locos and rolling stock to other modellers on another forum, and got good responses due to realistic pricing.

I also took a lot of locos and rolling stock to a nearby hobbyshop, each piece with my asking price, and told the store owner that he could raise the price as much as he thought suitable, as he was also entitled to make some money himself.

A week-or-so later, I dropped by to pick up some Kadee couplers, and was surprised to see that all of my offerings had been bought…I was told that they were gone in only a few days.

Most of those items were custom painted and lettered, and the majority of them weathered, too. The store’s owner apparently made enough off the sale to share some of his earnings with me, both of us well-satisfied with the outcome, and based on the quickness of the selling, I’d guess the buyers to be satisfied, too.

In the event of my demise, I’ve arranged with a couple of longtime friends to pick out a few items for themselves, and then sell the rest at realistic prices, the proceeds going to my survivors.

Due to my decision to backdate my layout to the late '30s, I’m guessing that there’ll be less interest in what will be on-offer.

Wayne

9

I already have a spot on my layout reserved for Bertram’s.

Your Longtime Friend,

Rich

10

Much of it is a ‘greater fool’ thing where there is no actual guarantee at all that you’ll find a greater fool when you want one.

And anyone else who would buy it will likely be cutthroat about paying bottom dollar, like that guy who liked to ‘dicker’ in Needful Things.

I think even Mr. Fast has said that brass, or even production rarities, aren’t “investments” as a sure store of value for your heirs. I was watching with some interest to see how the Hattons strategy in Britain would translate over to the American market… I’m still watching, but haven’t seen evidence or discussion that it has meant much.

There have been some examples of induced demand – that Rapido E unit with the one-off Amtrak scheme, or the Hornby LNER ‘hush-hush’ high-pressure locomotive. But how long will the perceived value be supported by ‘supply and demand’?

11

Hi,

Just over a year ago I auctioned off most all of my HO items - about 120 or so auctions on Ebay. My locos were Santa Fe with a few Illinois Central. Passenger cars were also Santa fe and Illinois Central. Freight cars were a mix.

The Santa Fe items sold nicely as they were with original boxes, higher quality, and like new. No locos were weathered, nor were passenger cars. Freight cars had weathering on trucks and couplers only.

The biggest positive surprise by far was the 9 Walthers IC streamlined passenger cars (lightweights). The only negative surprise was for the high end car kits - which sold for listing price or not much more. Shouldn’t be much of a surprise, for few folks build car kits these days.

Oh, DCC components, vehicles, figures, and turnouts sold well too.

If I were buying, I would be leery of repaints and weathered items - unless done extremely well.

12

I would argue the true value of something is entirely dependent on what a buyer is willing to pay for it. The seller can set an asking price but it doesn’t mean a thing if someone isn’t willing to pay that price.

I remember our Sunday newspaper had a real estate section with an advice column. One reader had written in lamenting that his house had been on the market for almost a year. He said he couldn’t afford to lower his asking price because he needed to get X-amount of dollars out of the sale. The person giving the advice had to tell him that his needs doesn’t increase what the buying public is willing to pay for his house. So it is with any commodity. The seller might have an idea what he thinks his item is worth, but if that isn’t in line with what a buyer is willing to pay for it, he’s not going to get his asking price.

It all comes down to supply and demand. If there is a demand for the item you are selling, you can get a good price for it. On an auction, if you have multiple bidders, you are going to come close to getting true value for what you are selling. Bidders will drive up the price until either there is only one bidder left or time runs out on the auction.

On the other hand, if there is only one person bidding, you won’t get more than your original asking price and if that is too high, you won’t even get that one bidder.

You can check past sales on similar items to get an idea what your items will sell for, but that is no guarantee you will get those prices. It could be a situation in which only one person w

13

I don’t think cleaning up an item will hurt the resale value as long as you are careful not to damage it in the process. Weathering or repainting is another matter. If done poorly, it could bring the price down. A lot depends on whether the buyer is a collector or wants the item to run on his layout. Collectors usually want the item to be as close to original condition as possible which means no after market painting or weathering. They also value having the orignal box. On the other hand, someone who wants the item for their layout might appreciate weathering or painting provided it is done well. If it were me, I wouldn’t do anything other than to clean an item up and maybe a little lube job to make sure it runs well.

14

I agree eBay is a crapshoot, but I’m not a seller, just a frequent buyer. Here’s a story: I got outbid on an Atlas Classic HO Northern Pacific RS-1 (quality item, not rare) in its original box. It started at around $50 and bid up to $150. It looked brand new but was untested because the seller had no way to test it.

The day after that auction ended, a different seller put up the very same item, the very same product number, in the very same condition, in the original box, for the same starting price of $50, only this one had been tested and ran well in both directions. Basically new old stock. This seller also provided a Make Offer option. So I offered the asking price, but told the seller that if I were him I would decline my offer, because the identical item had sold just a week before for thrice that amount and it wasn’t even tested. He declined my offer and thanked me for alerting him. But the days ticked down and no one bid on the locomotive at all. I was gobsmacked, nonplussed and dumbfounded and I felt like a fool. I thought it would seem cruelly smug of me to go in at the last second and bid the asking price after telling him he was going to clean up on that item, so I let it time out. He didn’t relist it.

This is a lesson I learned long ago in traffic. Take your right of way when you have it. Don’t be “nice” and confuse people by yielding when you shouldn’t. It causes fender-benders. Likewise, don’t try to do sellers favors on eBay. Everybody’s a grownup. I should have made my offer and kept my mouth shut.

-Matt

15

Whenever I’m buying or selling anything, I am looking out for my self interest. I leave it up to the other party to look after theirs. If somebody is willing to sell me something for less than I think it’s worth, I’m taking it. If somebody is willing to pay me more for something that I think it’

16

[quote user=“John-NYBW”]

crossthedog

I agree eBay is a crapshoot, but I’m not a seller, just a frequent buyer. Here’s a story: I got outbid on an Atlas Classic HO Northern Pacific RS-1 (quality item, not rare) in its original box. It started at around $50 and bid up to $150. It looked brand new but was untested because the seller had no way to test it.

The day after that auction ended, a different seller put up the very same item, the very same product number, in the very same condition, in the original box, for the same starting price of $50, only this one had been tested and ran well in both directions. Basically new old stock. This seller also provided a Make Offer option. So I offered the asking price, but told the seller that if I were him I would decline my offer, because the identical item had sold just a week before for thrice that amount and it wasn’t even tested. He declined my offer and thanked me for alerting him. But the days ticked down and no one bid on the locomotive at all. I was gobsmacked, nonplussed and dumbfounded and I felt like a fool. I thought it would seem cruelly smug of me to go in at the last second and bid the asking price after telling him he was going to clean up on that item, so I let it time out. He didn’t relist it.

This is a lesson I learned long ago in traffic. Take your right of way when you have it. Don’t be “nice” and confuse people by yielding when you shouldn’t. It causes fender-benders. Likewise, don’t try to do sellers favors on eBay. Everybody’s a grownup. I should have made my offer and kept my mouth shut.

-Matt

Whenever I’m buying or selling anything, I am looking out for my self interest

17

Hello hbgatsf (Rick)–

How did I miss this? Guess I wasn’t paying attention. A Santa Fe fan in Harrisburg, PA? There aren’t that many of us. I live in Marysville, PA. Maybe pm me or sent me an email johndmock at yahoo dot com Thank you!

Unfortunately on ebay I’ve learned the hard way that most sellers do not seem to be very interested in whatever “suggestions” I might have, even or especially if something might be wrong with their item description.

I agree that buying off ebay can be a challenge. There are some absolutely wonderful, reasonably honest and trustworthy sellers, and some that are just not, and some that are really trying to make a whole lot of money on each and every item. If in looking at the pictures of an item it seems to me that it was altered in some way, like painting black trucks silver, I will usually pass on that item at any price. I do not trust the guy who is saying he tests items out on his layout to be sure they work before putting them on sale. That really translates into “I am cherry picking the best items for myself and selling you the ones I don’t like”. His Santa Fe stuff is way overpriced and you can do much better elsewhere.

I must add the following caution: For every allegedly brand new, condition 9 or 10 Santa Fe locomotive that is on ebay, I can usually find the exact same item on sale brand new in box and usually at a MUCH better price at: Hiawatha Hobbies, Lombard Hobby, and Spring Creek Hobbies, or refurbished BLI stuff directly from their website. Or even direct brand new from ScaleTrains. There are dealers taking new Tangent, ScaleTrains, etc. items and just marking them up above MSRP on ebay, I guess because enough people don’t shop hard enough and buy from them. I’ve been able to turn around and order directly brand new from ST and save money over ebay pricing.

Many but not all of the remaining vendors

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Email sent.

Rick

19

The true return on any investment is what you earn over inflation. If you earned 5% on your money this past year, you lost money. A lot of people look on their house as an investment but as an investment, it performs rather poorly. On average, a house only appreciates on average about 2% per year which is lower than inflation. Of course it goes in cycles where it outperforms inflation but in the long run, a house is going to be worth less in actual dollars than what you paid for it and that doesn’t even figure in the interest you paid on the mortage, taxes, insurance, and how much you spent to maintain it. My first house cost $36,000 and I sold it 22

20

I don’t, and never have, consider the trains as an investment. Same with the boats and fishing gear.

Having said that there is value there that can be of benefit to my estate. My reason for starting this thread was to avoid mistakes that could ruin that value.

Rick