New e mail from CSX saying they have increased velocity but are still having spot car shortages due to very high car orders.
https://us-mg205.mail.yahoo.com/neo/launch?.partner=sbc&.rand=el6u3orhaljqr
It is earnings month and I have taken a look at CN (owner of the stock) and CSX (it is on my radar). For me, I skip past the RTM and look at the individual by category carloading and revenue per carloads. 1Q14 was brutal for both CSX and CN. Carloadings, particularly for the chemical and petroleum keep expanding as does intermodal.
Coal for CSX is dropping, as is their carload revenue. Obviously they are making pricing concessions in order to retain business.
Ed
Streak,
The current Railway Age reports 290,000 carloads in March, the second highest March loadings in the 5 years shown on their chart, and in the range of the recently typical fall peaks. I do not know if this is catch up from the winter or the beginning of a trend. Next couple of months will tell the tale.
Car orders and backlogs are up. No data on cars in storage. When that gets down to something like 5-10,000 then all lines of business are running at practical capacity which would be the most severe test of physical infrastructure.
Mac
All,
Current Railway Age reports April average weekly carloads of about 298,000, a figure exceeded only three times since 2009. US intermodal is up 9% 2014 over 2013. Intermodal units, 1,316,000, are closing in on carloads, 1,482,000. Business is good.
I happened to notice that for the five weeks ending May 3, 2004, the biggest percentage swings were metalic ores, down 27% to 22,700 cars, while grain is up 27.6% to 105,000 cars. That has to be a big increase in ton miles as generally short haul ore is replaced with generally long haul grain. The increased grain is also moving on routes other than those the ore is opening up.
Mac
Mac: Thanks for this analysis. The increase in ton miles does indicate the need for more locos and crews. Different routes do also change the fluidity of a whole RR. No wonder BNSF was close to a melt down as almost half of all traffic increases for all 6 major RRs is occurring on BNSF per the trains article on BNSF.
Latest Railway Age traffic for the four weeks ending May 31 shows continuing high volume, virtually the same as last month at an average of 296,500 carloads, up 6%over last year and 261,000 intermodal units, up 8% over last year.
Grain is biggest percentage gainer, up 29.7%. Lumber and Forest products are up 18.9 and 17.6%. Even coal is up 3%.
This, combined with Fred F’s comments about the shift in CSX’s mix from coal to merchandise, has me reasonably hopeful but a bit concerned about capacity issues. Would be nice to see data on number and types of cars in storage.
Mac McCulloch
RA June chart shows average of about 295,000 carloads per week, record high number for this time of year as compared with four previous years.
Grain is up 16.5% and lumber 13.8%. Total US carloads up 3.6%, Canadian carloads up 5.1%, US intermodal up 6.7% and Canadian intermodal up 9.3%.
Demand and volume are both clearly up. This fall may be VERY busy.
Mac
Shaping up that way Mac. I monitor the CSX weekly carloads and activity since they are the closest to my domicile.
They are up for week 33 - 5.9% year over year.
They are up for 3Q - 9.3% year over year
They are up 6.1% for the year.
The last few weeks have been holding steady with total traffic between 136000 - 138,800.
Interestingly the oil volume dropped last week from 4300 - 4600 to 3672. Not sure if that is an indication of concern in North Dakota or just a timing issue.
Ed
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I hope it is a matter of keeping the flow fluid across the railroad. One terminal I am aware of has been backlogged - more loaded trains in the pipeline than the consignee could handle in the time frame.
Balt:
Are those carloadings based on delivered loads, or cars in the system at the time?
Ed
Carloadings are just that loadings. Handled, is loads received in interchange, plus loaded on line.
For a loading to count, the carrier has to receive a bill of lading, that is info telling the carrier what is in the car, who will pay the freight and where it wants to go. In the aggregate this all evens out over a few days and over the entire customer base, but individual customers can vary day to day for reasons not obvious to the carrier.
Balt brings up a key point, the ability of the customer to unload. If the customer can not unload what the shippers can load and the carriers can haul, the lack of empties will show up at the dreaded “car shortage” at origin.
This often becomes an issue in the grain business at peak times as well.
The inability of consignees to unload cars at east coast ports during World War I was a major factor in the Govt taking over the railroads during that war.
Mac