According to a study by Upwork, 11.5 percent of the surveyed population, which included a cross section of U.S. communities large and small, say they plan to move to more affordable communities. A higher percentage of those living in major cities (20.6%) said they planned to move for affordablility.
“As our survey shows, many people see remote work as an opportunity to relocate to where they want and where they can afford to live,” Upwork chief economist Adam Ozimek said in a statement.
According to a Wall Street Journal article, more than 500,000 people have fled New York City since the pandemic began. Although it is a small percentage of the total population, approximately 7 percent, it could be a harbinger of things to come.
One indicator of the impact is shown by apartment rentals. In Manhattan the rent for one-bedroom units fell by 15.4% in September; in San Francisco they dropped 24%. For the first time since 2009, the median price of a one-bedroom apartment in NYC has fallen below $3,000 per month.
If the best and the brightest flee the cities, which is a possibility, what does it mean for public transit, especially commuter rail?
Keep in mind, the only company I know of so far that has said they’re going to not adjust salaries for where their employees remote work from is Reddit…all others have said salaries will be adjusted for cost of living in the actual location people live in.
In my general area the ‘new developments’ being built have their sales signs posted ‘Starting from the low 600’s’. Yep that is affordable housing outside the city.
The median price of an owner-occupied house in Austin is $312,300. In Hutto, which is a fast-growing suburb approximately 29 miles northeast of Austin, the median price for an owner-occupied house is $184,100.
The average commute time from Hutto to Austin, assuming the person fleeing from Austin still has to go to Austin for work, is 29 minutes on TX130, which is an 80-mph toll road.
As per the U.S. Census Bureau, which is the source of the above numbers, similar patterns exist for every large city in Texas.
Affordable housing in this example or in the quoted survey does not mean affordable housing as defined by the Federal Housing Administration. It means less expensive than the cost of housing in the core city.
The underlying basis of your presumption is that others will not move into the city to take advantage of the falling prices and that the migration is only in one direction. I don’t think that will be the case.
In Texas just 20-25 miles is a significant difference in price for the exact same model of home by the same builder. I have a feeling that is unique to Texas though due to land availability. You can buy a 4000-5000 sq foot brick house for $400-500k that would sell for $3-5 million in the Chicago area by venturing out a little further from Dallas or Fort Worth.
My home sold new for $148k in 1999 at 2100 sq foot single level brick 4 bedrooms. It sells for over $300k now and when I retire the price will be around $500k. I did much better in stocks with the same amount of money over the same period but still, not a bad deal money wise.
The “presumption” is to simply note the drop in rental prices within several cities, at least this year. It will be more clear if condo prices also drop.
OK well if that all that there is…just to note a drop in rental prices. Why is it posted in this Forum again? Scratching my head there since you severed the relationship to Mass Transit, and the comment on the best and brightest leaving the city.
My comment was strictly about your response to the JPS post, in which you seemed to read something into it that was not tbere, akin to a straw man argument. Maybe people will snap up condos in the cities, maybe not. It’s a gamble, since it is quite possible that a lot of folks will not be working in downtown offices in the future as much as pre-Covid, thus removing one of the attractions of living there.
"On the sales side, the data are even more bruising. As of September 1, the average median sales price for condos and townhomes in Manhattan year-over-year has decreased -24.3%. Closed sales have dropped -37%, even accounting for the decline in prices. "
On the flip side, my house appraised last month for almost double what I paid for it in the spring of 2018. Houses listed in my area have multiple offers on the 1st day on the market. Going for over asking price is the new normal here. Florida is in, NYC not so much.
This is an informative article. How many people will come back downtown and when are big questions. A read of the business press shows a variety of opinions. Many of the writers believe that lots of the folks that are working from home or other remote locations will not go back to spending five days a week in a central office.
Following the Spanish Flu Pandemic, people returned to the workstyles and lifestyles that they knew before the pandemic. They did not have many if any practicable alternatives. Now, however, technology has made alternate workstyles and lifestyles doable. The nation is not going back to the way it was before 2020.
When I call Fidelity, or a Medicine provider and other call centers, I frequently ask what call center I have reached and in converstion with the reps, I have determined that almost all are working from home. They indicate it saves them commuting time and expense. All seem to like it. Like Derwinski says, we may have a new “NORMAL”!
P.S. I like to call it “Infinite Couriosity” which sounds better than “Nosiness”.
In my field, when something new came along, many said it was better or that they liked it more, etc. However, when the true picture emerged, the results were not what was expected.
If we believe transit will eventually make a comeback, this may be the best time for transit systems to repair, replace, update, streamline, etc.
There are beneficial synergies that are developed with a work force working in personal contact with each other that cannot be developed any other way. Zoom is not the replacement for personal contact.
It’s all in flux. In higher education, my friends who are still active are finding online works quite well depending on the type of class and experience of the professor with online delivery.
From my contact with parents, online works so-so for middle and high school and quite well with better students. For grade school, purely distance learning seems to be inferior to in-person and hybrid models.
I suspect that some middle management supervisors of remote employees can’t see their employees working and if they can’t quantify their production, grow suspicious that they are slacking off. And they want them back under their supervision. Call centers can get metrics of all the call counts, times, etc. So they are good for working from home. But creative persons are hard to get metrics for what they do. I believe that brainstorming is better in person with the team members.
The bank I use has new ATMs that have a remote teller for transactions that can’t be done by yourself. They could be working from home for all I know. The terminal can scan the item (front & back) and also “see” any document you need to show them. And dispense cash. It can’t of course do loans.
I sold my house last month and almost all signing and other paper pushing was done remotely. Documents were sent electronically, signed, scanned, and emailed back. I never met the buyer. Had one in person meeting with my lawyer at his office. Had some meetings with our realtor. Our lawyer deposited proceeds into my account.