For years on here we have debated and lamented the lack of smaller steam locos in HO and how strong such a market might be. Also frequently sited in those conversations is the idea that modelers, and/or collectors, are more willing to pay higher prices for “larger Locos” and not willing to pay those same prices for smaller locos.
So, to gather some rather subjective and untested data, I tracked a few models for sale on e-bay. Models that are of interest to me but that I am not currently of a mind to purchase, so I did not bid on them.
The result was interesting even if the data sample is meanlessly small. Here are the two listings:
The smaller loco, a B&O ten wheeler, had 8 bidders, 5 of whom bid over $150 with a final price of $200. This loco is an older brass model, from the late 50’s or early 60’s I believe, and as such may need remotoring and additional work, and is likely not as detailed as newer offerings, brass or plastic, not to mention DCC if the buyer uses DCC. This is a model only a die hard B&O fan or a knowledgeable free lancer would care about.
The larger loco, a BLI N&W class A, a known good runner and puller with few or zero reported problems and a model of a well known prototype. Offered with sound and DCC. Yet it only attracted 4 bidders and a winning bid of $232. This is a loco that had a $449.00 retail when first released.
It seems to me, that adjusted for factors of age and features, there is considerably more interest in the B&O ten wheeler than in the Class A. And I would be the first to suggest that the lack of intererst in the Class A is a dir
I know in my roster, the most expensive loco I have in terms of price I’ve paid has been my BLI q-2 followed by an Olympia Brass PRR S-2. The next most expensive locomotive is an Olympia PRR H10. The price differential between these three locomotives was not substantial (e.g. less than $100).
The largest price differential for “me” was the relative rarity of each model and that there wasn’t much of a mentality on my part of waiting to find a good deal. It was a matter that those were the models I wanted, I found them for a “reasonable” price, and I had no reasonable expectation of finding them another time at a better price or in better condition.
The question that a manufacturer really needs us to tell them is not that there’s 8 people bidding up to $202.00 (with a spread somewhere between $100 to $202) or 4 bidding to $232.00 but that there are X number of buyers at Z price point. If they can sell 1000 models at $10.00 in profit or 100 models with a $100.00 profit, all things being the same, I think the evidence you’re trying to really muster is the “scarcity” of production mindset for potential customers while matching it to dfinitive numbers to make a profit.
In other words, I don’t feel a scarcity for a Bachmann K-4. I feel a scarcity for an H10. Therefore, my expectation of cost between the two is extreme.
WHile cost may have a slant on demand, the real issue is what is demanded, and what sells.
It does not relatively matter if a 10 wheeler or 2-6-0 or 2-8-2 sells for, if the public wants it they will buy it. But if more people will buy a big boy at larger profits, hey why not make 'em?
There are several Hybrid engine fullsized SUVs on Truck platforms out there that get as good a gas mileage as the smaller 4 door sedan without a hybrid engine. It seems as long as it gets good gas mileage people will buy the larger SUV over squeezing themselves and families into smaller cars, so manufacturers are making them. NAturally, the older fullsized SUVs without HYbrid engines getting poor gas mileage aren’t selling either. A full sized car with a good engine now can get 30 MPG, so why buy a “toy car” that you have to squeeze into just to get 30 MPG? {I will refrain from naming names}. It seems that some full sized cars with good gas mileage, in some models, are also not that much higher priced than that “toy car”. so for $2K, maybe $3K more you can get full sized comfort and convenience instead of matchbox sized discomfort. GO figure. Demand.
It would seem to me that if manufacturers were paying attention they could produce a smaller steam engine, sell it at a reasonable price, have it available on the shelves and make some good profit. IF they did that. It can come in 3 models: DC, SImple DCC {speed direction, lighting}, ANd SOund DCC{full decoder}. Now if they make and sell 10,000 units with DCC/sound they could do so ficticiously at $150 and make more profit {$1,000,000.00} than making and selling only 1,000 units with DCC/sound at $350.00 per unit { $300,000.00} if cost to produce said unit was $50.00. But instead they apparently hope to sell 10,000 at that $350.00 in hopes of making even more profit. go figure. Greed.
Selling something people don’t need at a high price in a bad economy is going to cr
The stock answer is that there isn’t a market for the smaller stuff. There is, but the manufacturer has to have a longer range outlook.
For example alot of the older era cars and engines are considered a niche market. The “classic” 4-4-0 has been produced by at least a half dozen manufacturers and the same model has been available for over 40 years. If there was no market for the engine why would it be in production for 40 years.
Same with old time freight cars. Everybody says there is no market because sales are low and the manufacturers won’t invest the money in new molds. But that’s not what’s happening. Some cars are still in prduction after 40 years. During that time the “same” model has had separate grab irons, cast on grab irons, sliding doors, cast on doors, doors with different detail, cast on roofs, separate roof castings, 2 variations of metal underframes and a plastic underframes. New molds ARE being produced. Every 5-10 years something has changed on the models that requires some sort of new molds.
So if there is a market enough to keep upgrading the molds and keep the model in productinn for 40 years, there must be some demand out there. The return on investment just has a longer time.
By the way, the new Roundhouse engines have one of the best electrical pick up schemes I have seen. Every tender wheel picks up power, there are metal frames cast into the tender truck sideframes to pick up power from the journals. The engine has phosphor bronze wipers on every driver. If all manufacturers would build in as sophisticated a power pick up system into their small models they would do better.
One of the problems with the some of the smaller models is that the manufacturers HAVEN’T upgraded like Roundhouse, so that 4-4-0 has basically the same poor electrical system it did back in 1970. If the power pickup (and details) were upgraded to modern standards where they operated more rel
Every 5-10 years what happens on the mold might very well be some boneheaded setup guy or operator crunching a bunch of parts in the mold and requiring its replacement or repair. Might as well upgrade then. I mention this as an erstwhile foreman for a tool shop serving a plastic injection plant. I spent 20 years chasing those kinds of problems. Maybe that’s what we should hope for, that one of the big toy makers doing the runs damages the Big Boy mold or something. Nawwwww, I don’t want to rain on the “big power” boys’ parade.
I do know one thing. If a manufacturer came out with a beautiful 2-8-whatever, I’d bet a dollar it wouldn’t quench all desires. I still think the ultimate, and maybe the most cost effective method to get the loco of your dreams would be to come up with a scratchbuilt chassis based on some widely available well accepted loco and use a reprap machine (rapid prototype, home made) to build whatever you want to. The cost of building the machine would be amortized by offsetting the purchase of non-specific locos and spending time and or money redoing them. Waiting for a Chinese toy manufacturers American sales branch to prod them into action may not be the best bet in the long run.
Honestly, Sheldon, while I heartily agree that there is a large market for small steam, I’m not sure that the two items you selected to serve as a reasonable comparison are valid.
The B&O engine is, I believe, a fairly rare brass model from very early in the history of brass. Its appeal would not be to general hobbyists, but rather to serious brass collectors. On the other hand, the BLI is a widely available late model large engine, appealing to a totally different audience.
I agree and qualified my observation as unscientific. I would take exception to one thing however, I suspect the brass model also appeals equally as well to “serious” operator type B&O modelers, with or without any interest in “collecting” brass locos. I would buy one, almost decided to bid on that one, just not a convient time right now, and I am about as far from being a brass collector as you can get. Out of a fleet of 130 locos, only two are brass. And I have kit bashed, modified, replaced the tenders with plastic ones, painted them in my freelance paint scheme, etc - to insure they have NO collector value.
And, unscientific as it may be, fact is, in that week on Ebay, more people were interested in a 50 year old B&O ten wheeler than were interested in a three year old N&W class A.
Regarding the small item versus large item selling price discussion, are we not dealing a little bit with the potential purchaser’s perception of price paid versus value received?
I have no direct knowledge of what it would cost for a manufacturer to have produced and import two different locomotives. But I’m kind of wondering if those costs aren’t that much different if the engine is an 0-6-0 versus a 4-8-4. If this might be true, then the potential buyer is looking at paying the same $300 (for example) for each engine. So which one would seem to be the better priced loco? I think the casual buyer would always think that bigger is better.
Consider yourself fortunate that you didn’t bid and win. From what I recall of the that period, H.O.Train Co. (aka GHC) brass models were not held in particularly high regard as runners. Re-motoring, re-wiring, adding new pick-ups, etc. would likely have pushed the final cost to you over $300.
Yes, bigger locos do not cost much more to manufacture than smaller ones. Just like autos, it takes the same amount of labor to put the left front wheel on a Focus or Lexus.
BUT, these manufacturers should know by now that most of their customer base are NOT “casual buyers” but rather are people with some moderate to advanced level of interest in this hobby.
And, I suspect the long term volume level of sales is better for a smaller loco than a bigger loco. Just look at the Bachmann 2-8-0 - dozens of large collector “wonders” have come and gone, and yes, sold out their limited production runs, yet Bachmann continues to make another “batch” or two of 2-8-0’s every year, for more than decade now.
And maybe they have had to retool some of it and maybe not if they invested in good steel tools the first time, not with standing some of the improvements over the years. But either way they have likely made a ton of “steady” profit, rather than the “flash in the pan” business model at BLI.
Maxman, I must be unusual, because my price “top” for ANY loco is about $300 (remember all are DC only, no sound) and “size” not drive that. I will not pay $400 or $500 “just because” the loco is some big articulated or giant Northern.
Correct, but there-in lies the catch. Bachmann is a huge corporation and can wait an extended period to recoup their production costs an gain profit. Nearly all the other companies offering any steam are likely just about making it from model to model…along with subscribing, out of necessity, to the concept of an “instant” turnover for each new item basically to fund the next project.
I expect that unless Bachmann offers small steam road engines in the future, under say $250 per, then odds are very long that anyone else will…at least for less that $350+.
Again agreed, but a President once said “if you can’t take the heat, get out of the kitchen”. I have no sympathy for BLI or others who are under capitalized and will not support them via “preorders” or by purchasing “whatever” they make like a lemming. My customers don’t pay me in advance or “promise to buy” from me.
Especially, in view of the wishy washy stance many of these companies have taken regarding DC products.
So I will continue to support Bachmann, Athearn, Intermountain and others who “bring products to market” before they try to sell them.
If we could compare brass to brass it might be more meaningful. Where do you draw the line between small and large? For example, I would consider a Pacific on the larger side of small and a Northern on the smaller side of large. Small steam interest may go up with the civil war celebrations coming up. Wouldn’t a really good 4-4-0 based on the prototypes be nice? I’ve had to modify the Bachmann units for years now.
Richard, I disagree completely about comparing brass to brass. Most of the serious “operator” and “modeler” type modelers I know have both brass and plastic/diecast locos in some kind of mix. They paint those brass locos and run them. They buy them because it is only way or best way to get the prototypes they want - not because they are brass. Not everybody who owns a brass loco is a brass collector - see my previous comments about my fleet.
I too have brass and plastic too. But, I will pay more for brass, just because it’s brass and I expect to. It also tends to be better for collection value–it better be or my wife will shoot me(LOL). When you do a sort by price on ebay, the brass is usually in the 3 to 4 digits and the plastic in the 2 to 3 digits.
I guess another way of saying it too, is that although a person is not a brass collector when they buy a brass locomotive they probably realize they are playing in that universe where the prices are driven up many times by the people who are.
By “casual buyer” I didn’t mean any Tom, Dick, or Harry that happened to walk into a hobby shop. I sort of assumed that someone making a purchase has some interest in the hobby or wouldn’t necessarily walk into the store in the first place. On the other hand there are a lot of real casual buyers that are buying the train as a holiday gift. And I think that Bachmann, for example, sells a lot of stuff to these real casual buyers. Why would they have their lower priced regular line of engines as well as the Spectrum models otherwise?
I understand that size and price have no correlation to your particular fleet, but I think that you have your vision of what your railroad is and anything outside of that realm has no interest to you. I would have to assume that if someone produced an engine that didn’t fit your scheme you would not purchase it even if they were giving it away. Fair enough. But there was another thread going around for awhile that was titled something like “show us your fleet” or something similar. If we looked at what those folks had listed as their purchases there was not necessarily any rhyme nor reason for what they had other than an ability to pay for the purchases. Conspicious consumption in my opinion, but that’s a separate issue. Anyway those folks have, in my opinion, more than moderate interest in the hobby. It’s just not the way you or I might define the hobby.
I am surprised that Model Railroader Mag, the NMRA or some other organization doesn’t do more surveys(have they done one?) about the hobby. MRMag, NMRA, Walthers, Athearn, BLI, Atlas, MTH, and many others have my contact info through warranty registration, subscriptions or just customer service. I want to say I’ve seen surveys done at a few train shows over the years. But that sure skews to those willing to spend time and money, just to go see.
The biggest mindlapse some people have regarding size Vs. cost, is that a big loco MUST be more expensive. I believe most people that thinks in that way are either noob´s or collectors…[:D]
Isn´t it so that the more “serious” model railroader wants to buy the locomotives he NEEDS, regardless of the size of the Loco?
I know that I´m willing to pay more for a steamer than a diesel. And I don´t demand that steam loco´s should be sold by the pound, like some Mfg´s might think, as they don´t make the small ones in the range I would like to see!
If some Mfg releases another UP Mallet, I for one, hope that their sales falls harder than a ton of bricks!
As Sheldon says; The market must be very saturated with those loco´s by now!
I know I harp on this niggling point, probably too much, but nobody reading here NEEDS anything remotely connected with this hobby. We WANT…oh how we WANT. And that drives the purchasing behaviour, as surely as it has done for the automobile industry. What you see offered in numbers is what sells, minus minor adjustments due to lag between the customer base and the suppliers…typically about two years.
I don’t pretend to have a good handle on what the hobby needs, but I sure know what those paying want, and so do the solvent suppliers. So far, big steam seems to be pretty robust.