Some intelligence-gathering

Model Railroader General Discussion (Model Railroader)
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We have entertained each other over the few years I have been on this forum by speculating about the size of ‘run’ for a given model. We have heard informed people say they can run from a couple hundred into the thousands with the prices reflecting how well the research and production costs get amortized over the total sales…or are expected to. So, I was a little surprised, given how the hobby seems to be walking on eggshells (or, so many of us wonder), when I saw this: [Matt’s post well down the stack revealing the numbers produced for BLI’s GS4]

http://www.broadway-limited2.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=2500

Remember that this model was a loooooong time coming, to me probably an indication that subscriptions were slow to trickle in. Then, didn’t MTH produde their version first, and should one assume the availability would cut into BLI’s potential sales?

I am quite surprised at the number, and that’s only the first batch!!? Something I don’t understand, or someone has grown some biiiig cojones.

(Please, if you care to respond, I would not like the discussion to include comparisons between the two rival companies I mentioned, or their two versons of the engine. This is about the size of a production run that seems large if it is one of two or more batches.)

Crandell

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'Way back in the dark ages, when a modeler wanted to find out if Tenshodo would build a one-off for him, I learned that Tenshodo wouldn’t even talk to anyone who didn’t want at least fifty.

Then, thinking about markups and costs, I can’t see how Pacific Fast Mail could have survived, even as a sideline, on less than a thousand units per run. (Note, I don’t know how many units of any PFM import were produced. I’m just thinking Marketing 101.)

Either there are a lot more model railroaders than I thought there were, or a lot more people with big rosters than I thought there were.

Chuck (Modeling Central Japan in September, 1964)

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Chuck,Back in the day one could buy several PFM PRR K4s without breaking a sweat finding them.

After all 90% of the members of the Columbus model railroad club had several brass engines in the 60s. Even as 15 year old I had 6 Alco Model brass RS1s and 2 United Models steamers.

Crandell I suspect the production runs is larger then most think.

4

I have no idea how many of those cute little Santa Fe 2-8-0’s were imported by PFM back in the ‘days’ (I’ve heard somewhere between four and eight thousand), but IIRC, it’s still the most popular brass steamer ever produced. Used to be you couldn’t find a photograph in MR or RMC that didn’t feature one, LOL!

I bought mine in 1960 and it’s still waddling around my MR (new motor) and still cute as a button.

But considering the now VERY limited amount of brass imports, it’s rather refreshing to see that BLI has a first run of the GS-4 in such generous numbers. Even though I’ve heard that the loco has a few problems.

For myself, I gave up waiting for the BLI “Daylight” set and purchased the MTH set, plus an articulated coach. VERY nice models, BTW. My older Balboa GS-4 is a Very Happy Camper with her new train.

Tom

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IIRC, Bill Ryan(owner of PFM) had a rather successful Cadillac dealership in the Seattle area. He got into the brass import business as he wanted a 2 truck shay(at least the story I heard).

Jim

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OK, this is answered in a common sense perspective.

I dabble in TT scale trains and have been manufacturing them in resin for a number of years. So anything that I produce is done in small numbers and cast by hand. So this is some of my experience talking.

What I would expect a manufacturer to do is first research if a given model is wanted or not. If it is, then I would try and find out how much it would cost me to produce it. That is a starting point. Next, how many would I have to sell to break even, which would be a worse case. The next step would be to put it out there and see how many advance reservations I can get. If I can get to my break even point, and the numbers are still coming it, I may decide to go for it and get more than the minimum run. Once you have paid for the molds, and since steel molds don’t generally get worn out, casting more parts is gravy from then on.

As to the long time coming, the manufacturer also has to do the research and get the plans and drawings ready, and have some sort of an idea what parts to cast and how they can fit together to make the model look real by using the least amount of molds / parts to do the job. This can take quite a while.

7

The only other production run that I have what I consider to be reliable numbers on is the Blackstone HOn3 K-27. The 1st run was credited as 1500 units by various sources close to the project. A 2nd smaller run (number unknown) was made 18 months later since the 1st run sold out at Blackstone shortly after it was received.

About 18 months ago, parts for 200 heavily customized Roundhouse Shays were bought up. I don’t believe David Hoffman has sold all 200 yet. OTOH, he doesn’t advertise, and you have to order direct. He has a similar project for the HOn3 Keystone Shay going right now, but I suspect the numbers are smaller. David apparently did buy all NWSL’s stock of Keystone HOn3 motorizing kit parts.

Current brass production is generally reckoned at about 150-200 per run at PSC.

I would think a run of 3,000 would be reasonable in standard gauge for BLI. Remember, BLI has the ability to get rid of stock quickly through Factory Direct if they need to recoup their investment right away.

my thoughts, your choices

Fred W

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How about the manufacturers just build the mechanisms, then ship it with a block of white pine, then we could whittle our own versions?

9

Well, I learn something every day as I continue to make my way through my hobby experience. Some have speculated that the Sunset Selkirk, admittedly on a short run, might be as many or as few as 150-200 units. Frankly, if they go much under 400 units, I have to wonder why they are only 33% more than the original asking price. I would have expected to see them fetch maybe $1700. These come with sound, so even more.

Thanks for all your insight and experience, either as a user or as a marketer/producer. It really is a tight community we have, in many ways, and it gives me a lot of encouragement to continue to support it.

Crandell

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Crandell,

I am not surprised at all by that number and would think that is likely the smallest production run size that is truely economical in terms of tooling cost amortization and assembly line untilization.

Years ago I spend a couple of hours skimming over the anual report of Bachmann’s parent company Kader. Using some numbers from that, and some information from several dealers I know personally who buy direct from Bachmann, I concluded that a normal “run” of any given HO loco for them was between 10,000 and 20,000 pieces.

Remember, they are not playing the “limited production” marketing game and changes in their offerings have allways been slow, with many items offered every year for many years. And in my view, that is a much better business model than the “limited production” BS from BLI and others.

10,000 Spectrum 2-8-0’s likely kept the hobby supplied for a a year or two - maybe three, then they make 10,000 more. In between that they make other stuff.

It is clear from the amount of “new old stock” that is just now drying up a little that early Life Like Proto2000 products were also produced in large amounts until justa little before Walthers took over. I suspect that some of their items, like the FA1’s and FA2’s easily had runs of 10,000 to 20,000 spread over all the various roadnames. And in those daysa they offered every roadname of every railroad that had the loco.

Obviously the large production batch thing has worked out a little better for Bachmann than it did for Life Like, considering how cheap some of that Proto suff was selling for a few years ago. Bachmann is heavily discounted from day one, but the bottom is pretty much the bottom.

Now for my age old complaint - in terms of this discussion, 3,000 pieces of any of these locos would not be many IF there were not two, three and four companies making the same model.

Maybe that is the real secret to success for Athearn and Bachmann, and

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Some intelligence-gathering

Shouldn’t take long…

[:-,]

John

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3000 Units is considered a small run with retail products. It would explain the high cost. I wonder what the total run of the loco will be.

But then again isn’t the GS-4 limited to a small amount of road names? That reduces the amount of people who would want it.

MTH was very smart in it’s release of the SD70 Aces last year. They had numerous road names including heratige units. An LHS in Delaware was telling me how there were several people who ordered one of each. That particular loco must have done very well.

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If you start at the Pentagon or Congress… it could take years… or certainly more time than you’d want to spend. [(-D]

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It seems a reasonable run, considering that there was a lot of speculation about whether or not there was even going to be one.

I think that this information is good stuff to find.

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Good thought…I was called scatter-brained, and when I stopped to collect my thoughts, I was accused of wool-gathering. Now need to locate sheep and intelligence!

don H.

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Crandell,

Although I have have not read through all of the posts here in this thread, I did concentrate on your’s!

I (as a consumer) think it is great that they did a very large production run. I hate loosing coin on something ‘deemed’ as rare or ‘one-time-only!’ & especially being price inflated, as it does not go back to the manufacturer,

I am hoping to receive (a year late) an MP36 Metra engine that I fell in love with, as the full scale ones subwoofer’d by my place of former employment! (I made up the term ;subwoofer’d’ as they had a very low tenor to them, the FP40’s were usuall sounding, but the MP36’s had a very low ‘drone’ to them, an incredible aspect.)

I wish more manufactures would do larger production runs, because we will buy them, & they don’t often hear from us when we want something they once did, & it’s all gone.

Besides, they have ‘bean counters’ that know what has sold & what has not, they can probably predict what will go fast, especially with advertising with ‘duping’ lines like ‘pre-order’ & ‘limited-run’ - those are now total ‘Turn Off’ & ‘AVOID’ messages to me…

Manufactures: Make more product, we will buy it!!!

Also, do not count the very first two weeks of sales as your ‘success’ indicator, the NOS market is very much alive & will probably save you if you are making quality items…

Sorry, kind of let loose there, as always, just ‘my’ thoughts, & ‘my’ pinion’s…