I saw it mentioned elsewhere here that the hobby is shrinking…is that true? I am returning after a long hiatus (including a period of collecting HO slot cars, shame shame!)…please enlighten me…If the hobby is ill, why are there so many products? Why so many publications? (Walthers is thicker than ever!) What are the numbers of modelers, dollars spent etc etc…and beyond the numbers how do you feel about the health of this hobby?
I’m returning to the hobby myself and I can’t answer your question, but I think this is related. It’s only my theory and I guess we will see over time if it holds true.
The baby boomers! They’re aging. What’s going to happen with all those huge collections. They’re going to hit the market. I don’t mind buying pre-owned equipment, much of it never gets used and there will be quite a lot of great deals down the road.
I am not sure that I have seen any hard numbers on the state of the hobby, so I am not sure that anyone can state with any assurance what the hobby is doing in terms of raw numbers.
What are the trends that appear to be on-going.
Bricks and Mortar Hobby Shops are closing. But then a whole slew of internet and e-bay retailers have sprung up.
While it is still possible to get into this hobby on a slim budget, the cost of the “new toys” is clearly getting higher. But then, so is the technology increasing. DCC, sound, R2R rolling stock, better detailed everything.
It also appears to me that there are companies with substantial resources willing to invest heavily in the hobby. Horizon Hobby has spent hundreds of thousands if not millions on acquiring Athearn and MDC Roundhouse in recent months. Other companies have entered the market and carved out substantial niches such as Broadway Limited. The DCC manufacturers seem to be thriving. These companies no doubt are basing these investment decisions on their own assesment of the market.
Are there fewer modelers today? Maybe. Are todays modellers spending more on the hobby? I bet we are! The hobby is evolving and to me seems to be quite vibrant and I suspect the total $ value of the market has gone up as we all try and buy into the new technologies.
The fear is that not enough younger modelers are entering the hobby. As the current modelers die off they won’t be replaced. Whether will happen or not is uncertain. The current state of the hobby appers to be pretty good. There are lots of products in the 6 main scales - Z, N, HO, S, O, and G.
I haven’t seen any reliable numbers or surveys done recently, especially on the total number of hobbyists. Most of the evidence is anecdotal.
Enjoy
Paul
when i go to model train shows i see a LOT of grey hair (mine included) . i guess this means that modellers are getting older , and that not many young people are being attracted to the hobby . then again us older folks tend to have more money to spend or we aren’t spending it on nintendo or girls or fast cars so there seems to be enough dollars around to keep the hobby healthy
Look at today’s toy’s that parents put in the hands of their children. Computers , video games, Tv’s, CD Players, stuff like that. They occupy alot of time for kids and are ready to use. A train layout has to be built before it can be played with and with both parents working, who wants to make the time for it in between running to the school for the plays and sports and music concerts? It’s a busy world out there, people always on the go, things to do, people to see.
Now for me, I like to come home, relax in front of my computer while eating a snack, maybe pick up my guitar and make some noise, maybe mow the lawn, or just head down to the basement and work on my layout. Sometimes , my college aged boys even decide to spend time with me doing whatever. Ah, life is good!
I’ve sorta stated this off and on for all the time I’ve been offering my opinion on this forum. The modeling is leaving model railroading. I have gotten back into R/C lately and the same thing is happening there. More ready to fly or almost ready to fly airplanes are available than kits. I don’t think it’s that people don’t have the time to model anymore, they simply choose to use their available free time for other endeavors. However, if you like doing something, you will make time for it. I believe modeling (making models as opposed to buying ready made) will eventually die out as a hobby. If this means the hobby itself will die out, remains to be seen. It may simply be a shift in what the hobby is. However, with all the great stuff being offered, I think now is a great time to be in the hobby.
i agree about the aging baby boomers…but i also agree abput the increased doLLLR SPENT
oops my reply got mangled! Yes many of us are aging and yes we are spending probably more than ever…(yes after inflation!) I would say the hobby is good at least until we (the boomers) reach the average age of seventy or so…thats when most spending slows…anyhow i like stirring tthe pot, as it were. I dont understand the lamenting the cost of the hobby etc…it seems we are getting a better value for our dollar than ever…and look at the choices we have!
As long as Thomas is on TV, the hobby is safe! And Bachmann has made entry level DCC a reality.
The real problem that we all face is that the top of the learning curve has accelerated out of sight. The likelihood of a single modeller building a really classy layout on his own has diminished, but, boy, does that set up great potential for modellers who have specialised skills and are happy to work with others…
Very true, but then 25 years ago when I went to the Local open house for the local train club in the Southern Tier of NY, most of the hair was the same grey… There seems to be a lot of interest in the young people that have seen my layout but most won’t run out and start modeling (at least not right away). The last Division meet I went to had a wide mix of ages. I tend to think that the hobby will be around for a long time and will continue to change as it has in the last 25 years. In the mean time, ENJOY YOUR TRAINS!!!
Unfortunately, Fireman, it is almost hopeless to get an objective answer to your original question…variations of which are always kicking around this and other boards.
A great many posters, past and present, either seem to be Pollyannas or don’t wi***o except the possibility that the hobby they love so much (and me too) might be in decline. For a long time many folks here and elsewhere unrealistically insisted the hobby was growing noticeably or was, at worst, at least static. This was always based strictly personal opinion, without any supporting facts. I’m almost surprised at the current posters’ seeming honesty this time around.
There are no hard and fast figures as to what is happening in the hobby today. One can only infer the situation through various trends. A brief overview of some of these factors goes like this:
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Extrapolation of MR’s decades of reader surveys gives an average age for today’s model rairoader as 55 years…drastically older (by 20 years) than was the case between 1950 and 1980.
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Across the board, model railroading magazine circulation is down dramatically in the last 10 years. The two largest publishers have lost a total of 65,000 readers in the past decade. While some try to claim this is the result of more and more individuals using on-line sources instead of hard copy, it’s been recently cited that the majority of hobbyist over 55-60 years of age aren’t even computer literate, so that excuse is pretty much out the door.
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About 3 years ago Kalmbach and a group of the leading manufacturers started the World’s Greatest Hobby campaign, a million dollar effort to promote the hobby. After 60+ years of model railroading being very popular, the
What if the overall numbers are decreasing but the involvement is increasing? The average age of folks entering the hobby is increasing not because of demograhpics, but perhaps by folks entering the age where they want something more from the hobby than instant gratification? While I have nothing to back this up - I can hope I’m right.
…and the times, they are a’changing…
CNJ831 wrote:
And then there are the great many posters both here and on the Atlas forum that are “doom-and-gloomers”, the Chicken Little-types that insist that the hobby is dying and there’s nothing that can be done, so we might as well just chuck it all and take up stamp collecting or something.
However, we both agree that there is no way to accurately measure what’s going on with the hobby. The traditional methods of using magazine subscription numbers and page counts, NMRA memberships, and train show attendance are now flawed. The internet has seen to that.
Now, on the the numbers:
1). It’s not that MR has found that the average age of model railroaders is 55, it’s that the average MR reader is 55 years old. After all, if you don’t get the magazine, how can you take the survey? It could simply be that younger model railroaders just aren’t subscribing to MR, as they are getting their MR “fix” by using the internet. In fact, if someone were to start a poll here, I’d hazard a guess that it will not coincide with the MR survey WRT to ages.
2). Increasing internet use is a big problem with periodical publications. One can’t deny this. The magazine used to be the only way to see what’s new, to get a model review, to see the dealer offerings, to interact with others, etc. Now, everything the magazine can do can be done via internet, and the internet does it all better for less (except for portability). And frankly I don’t understand your point about older model railroaders not being online. Where did this info come from? If it was an MR survey, then of course older MR subscribers would not tend to be online because they want the hardcopy just like they’ve always had it for decades.
3). The WGH campaign was started by Kalmbach to benefit
i dont buy the 'less affordable" argument at all…im going to do some consumer price index checking…engine cost…here in Los angelest in the mid sixties adds for police and fire advertised starting at making 645 a month…i wonder what an athearn engine cost…( i wont tell you what we start at now, but unless the athearn engine is at least ten times costlier, the price hasgone down)) i say that we are getting more value for our money than ever…most of live better by far than our parents at the same age…how many of us struggle to buy ONE car? Im talking of Mid middle class folk now…how many own two or three vehicles? two or three TV’s? But i digress…yes time is harder to budget than ever…witness the rise of prebuilt models…I think the best builders will still be the best…but its much easier to have a 'pretty good" layout or scene because of ready made materials. Anyhow i wasnt totalllllly looking for definitive answers…just stirring the pot for discussion!
Fireman, if you were active on any of the Slotcar related message boards and groups you probably saw the same kinds of threads going on there, I see these threads on occasion on model car kit related boards as well. Certainly no where in any of these hobbies that I have seen have ther been any comprehensive or accurate figures or demographics, trains seems to have teh most information but based on the arguements of others here it is not complete.
It seems all hobbbies are regarded as being in decline/having increasing average age etc. I still dabble with the slotcars (I have reduced the massive inventory of collector cars but still have a few dozen of my beloved thunderjets) but one of the reasons I decided to sell off the shelf queens was my concern that the baby boomers who drive tjet collecting will gradaully slow theri buying habits and the value of the collection would drop…so I started selling them off now while the prices were still decent. I don’t see slots attracting many new young people, just us boomers wanting to relive what once was and middle age car guys collecting nice fly cars they can run around once in a while…a “live” enhancement to die cast collections sort of.
It seems most any hobbies that require a time commitment and development of talent and skills is concerned about losing members and aging population. Folks choose to use time on the variety of choies we have today, things are more instant gratification, it’s too easy for kids to turn on xbox and so many fa,ilys get over-extended on softball leagues and the like. As far as trains go, they are not teh in-grained thing in American Society they once were, railroads are gone from so many towns and villages and trains hold no where near the facination with young people they did decades ago. Model manufacturers have had to resort to prefinihed/semi assembled kits to try and drw youth into model car building. Just imagine the modelers of the sixties who used straightened out tin can metal to scratch build hoppe
As always, Paul wants to disagree with and argue each and every point one by one…and without including any evidence that contradicts what already has been said. I’ll agree that every point I mentioned might have some sort of possible alternate explanation. But it makes very little sense to contend that all these signs of decline should have come together at one time and NOT mean the obvious! So if we wi***o re-argue these points, so be it.
As to MR, NMRA, train shows, etc. no longer being any sort of barometer of the hobby’s health because of the internet, that is stictly nonsense. The Internet simply has become the excuse or wipping boy at every point on these forums. I, and the wide circle of modelers I am acquainted with, feel the Internet is no more than an amusement, except maybe for eBay. As I already pointed out, NMRA found more that half its regional membership is not even computer literate! Elsewhere, a government survey has found only a small fraction of those 60 or older are on-line. Like it or not, Paul, this is the hobby’s majority of fellas. The internet is no where near the great hobby influence some like to thi
CNJ831, why is it that only you are allowed to post your conclusions without evidence? Why am I the only one that has to provide chapter and verse to prove my statements? You say that the internet is no big deal… You prove it. And please don’t say that anonymous government reports state that most people over 60 aren’t online is “proof”.
As far as the NMRA goes, it’s old and gray, so of course there aren’t too many internet users. But the NMRA is just not that important these days. My club, the South Shore Model Railway Club of Hingham, MA, at one time had everyone in the club a member of the NMRA. Now it has maybe 3 NMRA members in it out of 60 club members. Most (myself included) don’t see the need to join the NMRA as it doesn’t do much for us. And I can’t buy that the “majority of fellas” are over 60. Over 50? Ok. But not over 60. At my club, there are around 15 or so over 60. A significant portion, but by no means a majority. However, we have over 35 members over 50.
And those under 30 have no little to no interest in model trains? There sure are a lot of little kids at my club’s open houses (where attendance routinely tops 1000), so much so that it can look like a kindergarten at times.
Your quote about how posters coming here proves that there isn’t much to find on the internet for model railroading is ridiculous. What do you think this forum is? If it wasn’t for the internet, where would these posters turn to? Answer: the magazines. Now they don’t have to.
There may be no evidence that MR’s declining subscriptions is due to the internet, but there is no evidence that it isn’t, either. It’s certainly a factor amongst other magazines, why not MR?
WGH was launched by Kalmbach, correct? They of the declining magazine sales. Why is this evidence of a hobby in decline? Just because MR is selling less and launches a campaign to increase sales doesn’t mean there are fewer model railroaders, just fewer MR readers. And the WGH
As to what age groups are online, you can google for the Congressional Study done recently of who is and who is not online in America.
See: http://www.netcaucus.org/statistics/
Basically, 70% of Amercans in general have an email, while only 30% of those over 60 have an email. 90% of those under 30 have an email.
Other statistics are similar … and they prove the basic notion that the older you are, the less online you are.