Ah, yes. three years ago, I went to Chicago by way of Los Angeles, taking three nights from LA to Chicago. We arrived in St. Louis an hour early–and then rode over the former C&EI to Chicago, arriving in time for me to take #30 to Washington.
You don’t understand the term “outlier” or you wouldn’t keep trying to claim your and others’ always arriving in Chicago on-time (or within the 15 minute cushion - airlines use a cushion, too) is typical. But then again in fairness, how could you be expected to?
If the Eagle reaches end points on-time less than 30% of the time, then your always being on-time is really bucking the odds. Perhaps you should head for the casinos as you seem to be a really lucky guy!!! [I]
Inappropriate use here, as Amtrak’s OTP on a given day or in aggregate is hardly random, at least in most cases.
No one mentioned "armageddon. Just a couple of people who are experienced in railroad operations telling someone without railroad operation knowledge the challenges of operating passenger trains over the line. And no, watching YouTube videos does not count as railroad operation knowledge.
http://cs.trains.com/trn/f/743/p/258882/2905202.aspx?page=2
Unfortunately Buslist is no longer with us, however he had more railroad knowledge in his left thumb that you will ever have. He also had the ability to stop, listen, and learn when someone with more knowledge was trying to educate him, a skill you seem to lack. Oh well…
https://hickscarworks.blogspot.com/2018/01/in-memoriam-albert-reinschmidt.html
One data point (one day for an annual stat) usually not repeatable that stands out from the rest…and yet for me it happens in the past two days both trips. You really need to brush up on your definitions though. Pretty sure I understand it. Plus you have Diggesty saying it happened to him at St. Louis. That would be another data point on another years annual stats of course and if it was the only train it would be an outlier.
I wasn’t aware he was in charge of operations for that specific line. I thought he just knew of it or possibly operated over it and was expressing his observations as a crew member.
I might say the whole arguing position on that issue is quite ridiculous as well. Capacity can’t be added because…well it’s impossible or cost prohibitive. Yet public proposals from the state are made unchallenged by the railroad. Elsewhere the same railroad speaks up publicly if a proposal is made that is unrealistic.
You know that reminds me of another arguing position someone took on here about adding a third track to a specific route…well one could go on and on. It’s not that I don’t take seriously some of the comments or appreciate them. Some are so ridiculously outlandish they beg for a challenge. I guess I could keep quiet and let the ridiculousness get worse but that is the cost of silence. The poster making the outlandish claim thinks they got away with the last one, so why not make another, then another. Eventually it is no longer a serious discussion.
The problem is that the 37% for what I think is supposed to be ‘average percentage of lateness at one or more intermediate stations’ correlates so poorly with JPS1’s stats for endpoint arrivals. That indicates to me that there is likely some delay enroute that is made up by arrival; which as I noted is immaterial to CMStP&P’s observation.
This would be easier to substantiate if I had an exact percentage for on-time arrival at Chicago in the month(s) involved, which is probably easy enough to generate given time and access to data sources. I’d also say that applying statistics to determinate outcomes is not as meaningful an application of statistical principles as predicting the probability of late arrival a priori; all it means is he was lucky on the particular days he traveled, which is what I thought he was saying from the beginning.
I don’t think you or anyone else could accurately predict whether a given particular Eagle will be late, either at select intermediate stops or endpoints, from the given ‘numbers’ or any other monthly statistic, which is partly why I invoked stochastics. (I confess some additional part of it was in sarcasm rather than intended as technically accurate…)
Damn, that sucks. I thought he was one of the better posters here, too.
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No averages, certainly no stochastic stats used, and the OTP (all stations on the route) percentage -37%- is not inconsistent with the endpoint percentage - 46.4%.
All I am saying which seems pretty simple is that MR guy is pretty lucky to be on time in Chicago twice a year, given those percentages/probabilities. The odds are against an on-time arrival on what has been the last few years the worst-performing Amtrak route. You don’t need monthly stats to see that.
MR guy will never admit that he just might be wrong, as we see in his response to n012944, who tripped him up.
Just start measuring arrival stats in Chicago from now until the day after New Years for the Texas Eagle. If my hypothesis is correct, the train will be ontime more often during this 1-2 week period…then the rest of the year’s averages. Exception being any severe weather that impacts train speed.
When I get back I will report which direction did what performance, since I will be on the train again vs just reading about it. I will also be ready to do the “Church Lady” dance of vindication…yet once again. 
Which is almost exactly what I understand MILW to have been saying – that he’s lucky to have been on-time every time he goes. But I’m reserving judgment on the subsequent ‘evolution’ of the discussion until he states the argument deserving of the victory dance of vindication.
Thank you for better confirming what the 37% represents.
It’s pointless to discuss with someone like MR guy who is always “right” and I was foolish to once again to attempt that.
For the record, he never linked being lucky with his trains always being in time. Now he is contending they are on time during the holidays (seven round trips) and will prove that contention by reporting his journey. Oh well, enjoy your holiday.
See you can’t win an argument ever on merits so you put words in other peoples mouths, name call, post provacative statements or twist what was said. All that says is you had a weak argument to begin with that was indefensible (as usual). The above is not what I said.
I said on time more often then rest of the year, also didn’t say holidays generically, pretty sure it is Christmas time now…at least it is on my calendar.
Hoisted on his own petard!
QED.
Since youtube was mentioned I can even give everyone a preview of myself wrestling with the METRA EXPRESS and trying to clear traffic ahead of my Chicago to Milwaukee Amtrak train so I can get to Milwaukee on time. Here is a video of me in Prairieville, Illinois trying to single handedly untangle the traffic mess caused by METRA, had to use a white horse because of the crowds but as you can see I had a little help from METRA passengers that were also fed up…you can see some of that METRA MOW and Commuter equipment is starting to show it’s age. [:O]
A great video! And realistic too!
A new use for coal!
See seperate thread on Texas Eagle Trip report.