I see that none of you take into account the little blue engine named Thomas.
My son is a Thomas junkie Its huge there are so many different sets of Thomas and what does it teach kids to do: Build layouts!!! The wooden sets allow a child to develop all sorts of designs.
Then you have take along Thomas which is very much like having modules. Each little set hooks to the others so one kid can come over whith his "module and hook up to his friends and then they have a larger layout when they get done they put all the pieces back inside and take them home. There are also tons of videos/dvd’s which tell stories how are they any different than our beloved railfan videos just more age appropriate.
Also the price of Thomas is outrageous just lie our trains so it gets parents used to the price so transferring to our style of trains isnt such a shock.
The day out with Thomas event happens and lots of places across the US were talking tons and tons of kids exposed to many railroad museums.
I beleive there might be some slack right now but I bet there will be a huge influx of model railroaders coming when all of these kids grow up.
Yes, you are all correct, the hobby is doomed.
As a matter of fact the hobby of model railoading will cease to exist this coming February 18, so get those projects completed before the hobby dies.
And anybody who has subscriptions to magazines that go past that date, well sorry, but no refunds.
-Ed
LOL
Nice shot, Ed!
In the early 1960’s, slot cars spelled the doom of model railroading - or at least that’s what one slot car manufacturer said at a hobby manufacturer convention. Some model railroad manufacturers believed him, and took a bath when slot cars changed from a fad to a hobby.
Now Thomas and all of his funny-named friends are going to save us. Very possibly, but don’t bet the roundhouse on it.
Fifty years from now the great debate will probably concern minimum radius for microscale (1/1,000,000) maglev equipment, and how to model underground tubeways.
As long as there are people who like to build models, some of them will build models of railroad equipment.
As long as there are frustrated Van Sweringens and Harrimans among us, somebody will build and operate models of railroads.
I can only hope that they have as much fun as I’ve had, and am having.
And that slot car manufacturer was more or less correct, only he didn’t realize that the scenario would play out not in the short term but rather in the long term. Currently almost 2/3 of model railroaders were born before the advent of the slot car craze. For that reason, those boys were heavily exposed of model electric trains (Lionel/AF/Marx), which attained their zenith in sales in 1956. If you check the figures, you’ll find a dramatic drop in the number of teenagers entering the hobby after about 1965, with their numbers dwindle steadily thereafter. Today the number of teens in the hobby is probably around 1/25 what it was 50 years ago.
So, about twenty years down the road from today, when 2/3 or more of the hobbyist have passed from the scene, model railroading is likely to be in some serious straights. Market size will not be sufficient to sustain more than one or two major manufacturers and very few specialty companies. There might just be Walthers, all alone. Who ever is left, they will also have to charge far more than today’s relative prices to keep operational. In short, the hobby will likely have contracted to the size it was immediately after WWII and plastic will be priced like brass. And if Thomas is of any long term influence at all, and I very much doubt that, it will pretty much come too late to matter.
CNJ831
This is a wonderful time to be in model railroading. Having just about everything avalible ready to run or easy kits allows me to choose the parts of my railroad I want to build. I have a much better railroad for it.
A good friend gave up HO scale. Time dimmed his eyesight and he had difficulty with his hands. Thanks to ready to run and snap track he has come back to HO scale and is keeping busy with his first love. Scenery and structures.
I find that old Hamster trail pieces (http://www.petsr4u.com/proddetail.asp?prod=hg62304&cat=167) make excellent underground tube ways for Maglev M Scale equipment. nods sagely
Sorry just couldn’t resist.
But on a serious note… The future is what we make it… lets not ruminate on might bes, because gentleman none of us know the future it may be grander or darker than our vision can encompass… let us use this day for living.
Peace.
Coyote
[quote]
QUOTE: Originally posted by Student of Big Sky Blue
A few days ago, there was a thread that had a chicken little doom and gloom prediction about model railraoding. While I disagree with it. I do have something that I would like to share about and let you all chew it over and think aobut.
I read an interesting statistic some time ago. Where I glomed onto it has long since faded away into the neirther reagons of my swiss cheese brain. But we can safely assume that it was a model railroading magazine. What I remember is this.
1/2 of all model railroads that are ever built are 32 square feet or less (So we are looking at something like 4X8s and 4X6s and shelf layouts)
2/3s of the remainder fall between 32 and 100 square feet. with average being about 64 square feet. (So we are looking at 4X8 with an added branch up to spare bedroom size)
Only the remaining 1/6 of model railroads that are ever built are the often showcased and prenially desired for “Basement Empire” be it wheather they are actually in a basement, or other places like garages, attics, or even their own special building.
I do not remember if this covered club layouts as well or just home layouts. But I think that even if we include club layouts these numbers would still be pretty accurate.
As for model railroading being a declining hobby. I think the jury is still out. While model railroading since the start of the worlds greatest hobby campaign has in my opinion taken direct aim at the baby boomer generation as they have not only the money, but the time to take up this hobby and pursue it as well. Many of my freinds who live in metroplitan areas and can do things like go to GATS shows tell me that a large majority of the people in attendance are people in their 30s and they are with their excited and enthusiastic kids.
So are we in a decline? Maybe we are. But I also know history has a tendency to repeat itself. I have read that the 1960
I really can’t see the hobby being doomed. Model trains of one sort or another have survived as long as the real thing. We may even see increased interest in trains as fuel costs soar and people can’t afford to fly. The reintroduction of trolleys/trams in city centres might well produce a new generation of traction modellers too. I’m guessing in 50 years time the talk will be of wiring a solar-powered computer control system, there’ll be questions from people who’ve found this old loco badged “BLI” and want to know if it’s worth buying, and someone else will be asking if anyone’s heard of this old command control system named “DCC” (guessing something far more advanced will be around by then - with any luck it’ll be open-source).
But Dave, what makes you think that those 10,000 “serious” modelers are the only ones that buy new locomotives and other hobby-related items and keep the manufacturers afloat? That’s like infering that only serious artists buy painting materials and canvas, or that only professional photographers buy cameras.
The 10,000 “serious” modelers (however you wi***o define that term) is a very realistic figure but it is necessarily only a small fraction of the several hundred thousand that dabble in the hobby one way and another today.
However, cut the latter figure by 2/3 or more and then speculate how good things might be for model railroading. All the magazines, save for MR and perhaps RMC, would outright fail. Runs of new locomotives would need to be in the range of just hundreds to sell out. Companies that produce the misc. detailing and scenicking items have no great profit margin today and most would likely close shop if the hobby declined dramatically. It’s definitely is quite predictable.
One needs to understand the past to grasp what the future holds - see my earlier post.
CNJ831
I just want to point out some facts about statistics,
- 78.4% of all stats are made up on the spot.
- of that 78.4% only 12.6% is based in any reallity, 40.2% is based in comedy, and the other 55.2% is just plain BS.( yes I know this all ='s like 108% but what do you expect I’m making this up as I go!)
- ahhhh ok I don’t have a 3. but remember 61.6% of facts don’t have a 3 either.
Hey here’s an idea lets not worry about 50 years from now and go work on our latest project.
bill
Guess we all better get out now while the getting is good.[xx(][:(]
Let’s see. There is more product available now and more being produced all the time. Even in my minority scale of S, there’s a lot - more than I can use. There’s at least a couple dozen model railroad magazines - some general, some specialized - available. The train shows I go to, you can hardly get a parking space. Yep, pretty obvious the hobby’s dying.
One good thing for the future, the cost of the hobby will decline dramatically since all this stuff will be on ebay at distress prices - brass locomotives at $25, Kadee RTR at $2, etc. MR will have how to articles on dumpster diving to get track and power packs.
Personally, I think all the doom and gloom is a bit over the top…
Enjoy
Paul
What will save the hobby?
The few, the creative, the romantic, the nostalgic, the ones who can’t get their jollies or enough satisfaction killing Starfighters, Rebels, Wookies, Aliens, Bad guys or whatever on computers.
There is an element within most of us to create and challenge our abilities as long as that urge remains within the human psyche there will be MR’rs stupid and silly enough to allow themselves to be tormented and also revel in the delights of there succeses of this eclectic hobby of ours.
Ever go to a train show? And ever remember that line in MiB “Elvis never died, he just went home”. Ya we ain’t normal people and as long as we exist the hobby will too.
Fergie
Some predict the demise of the hobby while others look at what might happen with a dark cloud painted on the backdrop.
I wonder if railroad hobbyists in the late 50’s predicted the appearance of plastic kits, ready made but needing some work cars and locos or the now becoming popular DCC systems with anticipation or anxiety.
While worrying about and in fact predicting the demise of the hobby due to an increasing lack of interest how many have made the effort to expose a non-modeller to their railroad model?
Consider these numbers:
If 10,000 railroad enthusiasts expose just twelve people a year (one a month) with 5% of that 120,000 becoming interested and involved…6,000 new enthusiasts are born
If the 16,000 expose one person a month ( 192,000 X 5% ) … 9,600 newborns!
When the 25,600 follow the plan ( 307,260 X 5% ) … 15,360 new enthusiasts join us.
Ok, three years and the original number has quadrupled to nearly 41,000 people.
If you’re not part of the solution you’re part of the problem, to quote an old phrase. When you don’t get out there and pull the weeds it’s child’s play to predict that your flower beds won’t look as nice next year as they do now.
Ravenstar
What I’ve noticed in my four plus decades on the planet is that what you expect to happen doesn’t and then a lot of what happens is never even forseen. Enjoy MRR today. Next year you or I may not be here. If we are, maybe we won’t have the capacity to participate in the hobby. THE SKY IS FALLING!! THE SKY IS FALLING!! Well maybe it is and maybe it isn’t, but I’m going to be enjoying my trains until it falls, if it ever does.
[#ditto]
I can’t do anything about that asteroid (due in 2012 by the way) or the four horseman coming so I just hope I have my layout done by then.[:D]
“The future is not set”-John Conner to Sahra.
Mmmm…Soilent Green…[dinner]
This all just goes to show once again that with carefully made up statistics you can prove anything to your liking, and 95% of the people will believe you, no matter how inaccurate or phony your statistics might be.
See, there’s another example – I just made up the 95% figure, but it sure sounds official, doesn’t it?
Wow, alot of doom and gloom here. And sounds like there are quite a few folks just sittin there letting the water come in the boat and just lettin it sink…oh well.[8)]…
I am not going to tell some of you that I think you are off track, (pardon the pun) and preaching about the doom instead of what you are doing about it, or lack of. But here is my take…
10,000? I think not. What is a serious modeler? I think you are a serious modeler if you just buy the stuff. Look at the attendance records of all the shows across the country. That right there will show why I think 10,000 is a stupid low number. In my mind, you buy it, your serious. You buy, they will keep making it. I can keep getting it.
So, if it is all doom and gloom, what are you going to do about it? Try and share the hobby any way you can. I know not everyone is in a postion to do what I can, but it still the mind set that counts.
Mind set you say? Here is a good example, even if you never leave yoru key board…, you are up here yackin about the end of the world and a doomed hobby, some newbie who just joins this forum (like I did 2 years ago) to start up in the hobby find a a thread like this, and starts reading all thinks “Oh man, this could be a one way dead end street, I wont be able ot buy what I want to 20 years… better take up golf”. Just killed a moodeler.
I have a garage laytout that is open anytime. Over the 2 different houses we have had in the 2 years, I have lost track of the the kids that have come into to see it. Or big kid neighbors. At our old apartmet, there were alot of kids. I used to keep a stack of milk crates so they could see.
I also joined a modular club that sets up at shows and puplic events, (train shows, carnivals, fair. etc.) We are always trying to attract new folks. In fact, we junked the NMRA standards for the height and made 40" so more kids could see the layout. Our email listing was 18 1.
CNJ831,
You are absolutely right with the statement “however you wi***o define that term”. A serious
modeler, to me, isn’t measured by one’s layout, but one’s passion. But that’s my opinion and
really has no relevance to this issue. I believe, to manufacturers, serious modeler is measured
by one’s cash flow. And there is nothing wrong with that… it’s called good business sense. I am