Who will prevail?
My thinking behind my vote (Polar Express) is that it is the ideal cross over set. You’ll get folks who want it for the movie connection (or for their children who want it for the movie connection) or you’ll get folks who will buy it because it has a Berkshire and heavyweight-style passenger cars that are painted like a real train.
Its usable as a regular train, if you wanted to. Its got appeal on both sides, as opposed to the other sets, which have limited appeal.
One can’t find a Polar Express set - it’s half-life is only 16 more days before it’s appeal disapates. Sponge Bob is an acquired taste. I vote for the King.
i’d go for the spongebob. i don’t know the demographics, but i believe that spongebob is more popular drawing fans from 3 yrs old to at least 18 yrs old. very few under the age of 40 really care much about elvis, so spongebob wins!
I went with the Polar Express, although Spongebob will probably do okay, as well. That Elvis set is one of the most hideous things I’ve ever seen! 
I think the Brio Polar Express Set will clean up with its $50 list price and excellent availability. The little ringing bell signal thingy is cool, too.
[:)]
The Polar Express set is already a sellout. I have never seen or heard of the other two.I think Sponge Bob will sell well,but kids don’t even know who Elvis was.He’s been gone over 25 years[:(]. I am not getting old, I am not getting old, I am not getting old…
( Today is my 53rd birthday[:0].)
(Happy Birthday, espeefoamer). I think the Polar Express set will do best of the three. As to Spongebob and Elvis, what do either of them have to do with trains? I’m curious to see if K-Line will produce an O gauge “Harry Potter” set, since they have Warner Bros. character license. I wasn’t all that impressed with Bachmann’s HO version.
If my children were choosing, Sponge Bob would be the winner. The Polar Express is seasonal “flash in the pan”, whose reign ends December 26th. I don’t see what Elvis has to do with trains, at least Johnny Cash sang about them from time to time.
To me all 3 are losers, because even if they were given to me for free, none would ever run on my layout, period.
The truth is, my children relate just fine to models of real trains at ages 10 and 12 respectively. My daughter’s favorite car is an Atlas cylindrical hopper lettered W.R.Grace. Of course her name is Grace, and she thinks it was named after her. She still believes, in spite of the fact that I have repeatedly told her that it wasn’t. When she sees it she says, “that’s my car.”
I agree with BigBoy on this one, The polar express is a seasonal train that will sell alot now, but after the holidays are over, people are not going to be thinking “Santa” any more.I think sponge bob will sell better down the stretch.
I also have to agree with Big-Boy and Pennsy, the polar express is a seasonal train and that sponge bob will sell better down the stretch
This is like David and Goliath from the getgo, IMO, except David left his sling at home.[:D] Lionel probably will make close to 30,000 Polar Express sets in 2004-2005. MTH will probably make a thousand or two, Sponge Bob sets. Game, set and match, at least for this year.
Well consider one more thing here… the Polar set is by Lionel. I think if Lionel had the SpongeBob set, it would do even better. Nothing against MTH, or K-Line but in the arena of appleal to the novice and beginner, Lionel is the unquestionable winner… they have name recognition that the others can only dream of.
When, if, people decide they want trains and can even find a train shop or retailer that sells them, it is the Lionel name that probably got them in there. I’ve spoken to countless dealers who say the same thing. The folks may end up buying a K-Line or MTH set, but they went in looking to buy Lionel.
The Elvis set is for the collectors just as the Greendale set is. Neither are that smart an idea, but I’m sure more folks heave heard last years “30 Number One Hits” by Elvis over “Greendale” by Neil Young. Guess that’s why they made only 500 Greendale sets… because that’s probably how many of us actually like the Greendale album.
Actully this question may be a moot point. Lionel’s biggest problem here may be they can’t meet the demand. The Polar sets are in short supply and are being doubled in price by some dealers and to my understanding, the other set not mentioned above - The Thomas Set - is late getting to the states. Buying Season is RIGHT now. If the sets aren’t on dealer shelves RIGHT now, they aren’t going to be bought by customers are they? Maybe instead of what will be the biggest HIT, the question should be what will be the biggest MISS?
Fortunately for Lionel, they do have some other decent affordable sets that hopefully people will opt to buy if they can’t find the set that brought them to the train shop.
I want a Black Sabbath Trainmaster.
I’d have to say the Polar Express. They’ve already sold out and so they’ve obviously beaten the others as far as sales go, even if their popularity is gone after Christmas. This movie could end up becoming a Christmas classic and so the set may keep its popularity.
The SpongeBob set is a good idea as he does have a lot of popularity. (Why, I can’t imagine. There are even people in my grade that love him.) However, this set isn’t being sold at places like Wal-Mart where most kids that love SpongeBob and their parents go. Kids who do receive this set will probably be almost exclusively ones that have a relative who is interested in toy trains and got the set for them. Also, I believe that SpongeBob is a fad and that in a year from now no kids will be at all interested in him. It seems that there’s always some kids’ show that becomes hugely popular and then disappers into obscurity. I’m looking forward to SpongeBob’s ultimate demise! In any event, this set has little long-term appeal.
As for the Elvis set, it certainly won’t appeal to serious prototype-minded people or be a big success, but I don’t think that it will be a total dud. I think that the Elvis boxcars that Lionel is making will sell at least ten times better, though. Despite being 18, I like Elvis and certainly wouldn’t mind having one of the boxcars.
I disagree wholeheartedly on your assessment of SpongeBob Sask, and recent history proves me right: I remember when The Beatles were called a flash in the pan who would never make it past one year. Look at all the cartoons that no one ever thought would have longevity and yet have: The Flintstones, The Jetson’s, Scooby-Doo and others.
People identify with what they liked and had when they grow up. So I wouldn’t discount the selling power of SpongeBob, Dora the Explorer and some others. Years ago, we all knew Bugs Bunny and the Looney Toons were great. But who today could have guess their tremedous selling power. Why? Because many people like those characters. And now their kids like those Looney Toons too. Heck, SpongeBob isn’t of my generation, but my nephew has gotten me to watch them, and unlike some other cartoons, SpongeBob is pretty darn good. Mark my words, SpongeBob is here for the long run. He may fade for awhile, as many do, but he’ll be back.
Spiderman lost his spark too, and now look… Spiderman everywhere. Hmmm, the guy running Lionel was responsible for that. Good deal.
You’ve made some very good points, Brian. I guess I was a bit hasty about SpongeBob. After reading your post, I’m inclined to go with your point of view. At the moment, we’re experiencing something of an extreme SpongeBob mania and while he might make a comeback in the future, his popularity can’t continue to stay where it currently is forever, though. Only time will tell, I guess.
The Polar Express set will dominate (as it already has). The other two won’t even come close–now or in the future.
I have no idea who will win.
What I do know is that my kids (and our neighbors kids 10 -12 years old) love Spongebob. However - they could care less about a Spongebob train set. They do care about having a new Spongebob game for their PS2, Gameboy, etc.
Most Spongebob stuff sells for under $20-25. A $250 train set is way out of line for the typical SB affectionado.
I note that Disney train sets sell well mainly because of older Disney collectors. People who have no interest in trains collect Disney trains because it has Disney characters on it. I think the same thing applies to most Warner Bros stuff.
If the Spongebob set did something (Crabbypattie loader or something) or had Spongebob village pieces (houses the characters live in, etc.) and characters to play with it would have a better appeal to younger kids (8 or so).
Pokemon was huge for a couple of years and is now dead. Beanie Bables before that (I am thankful no one offered a BB train). Yu-Gi-Oh is hot now for the 10-11 year old set.
For every fad that lasts there are many that do not.
I agree that the toy train manufacturers missed the boat by not having a Hogwart’s Express set when the first movie came out. That one would have had recurring sales since there is a new movie being released every couple of years.
Regards,
Roy
Hey everyone, please don’t confuse the Polar Express’ success with Lionel, the movie or trains. There is only one reason it has been a comercial success, and that is Christmas.
Now perhaps people associate trains with Christmas because of Lionel’s long standing tradition. That’s great for seasonal sales, but it does virtually nothing for the hobby. In my mind, hobbiests are more than seasonal train buyers. Their trains are in use regardless of the date on the calander.
The toy train tradition was founded on idea of making realistic trains, not on a bunch of gimicky marketing nonsense. All of these sets are just desperate attempts to sell trains.
I realize that this is not the point of this topic, but if we really want to get kids interested in trains, we should focus on the real ones that are running the rails of our nation. Go back to basics.