Cracks on the upper side are initially a sign that the tensile stresses can no longer be absorbed, i.e., the associated moment is too large. One probable cause is the one you described. However, the condition of complete bedding can also develop gradually during operation.
The EN 13230 standard distinguishes between two load cases:
Load case 1 (max. tensile stress on the underside)
Load case 2 (max. tensile stress on the top)
A 2015 study by four authors at the University of Illinois entitled FLEXURAL ANALYSIS OF PRESTRESSED CONCRETE MONOBLOCK SLEEPERS FOR HEAVY-HAUL APPLICATIONS: METHODOLOGIES AND SENSITIVITY TO SUPPORT CONDITIONS showed that other bedding distributions can deliver even greater moments.
https://railtec.illinois.edu/wp/wp-content/uploads/pdf-archive/IHHA2015_3637_Wolf_et_al-(DWC-comments).pdf
The first part of the study compares the calculation specifications of American, Australian, and European standards. This part is difficult to understand, as figures and graphics from these standards are repeatedly cited without being shown. There are considerable differences.
In the second part, the influence of the bedding on the moments is examined using half a threshold as an elastically supported beam. If I understand correctly, the bedding of beam sections A to I is varied section by section between 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of the rail load. The remaining load is distributed evenly across all other sections.
The results can be found on page 6 in Table 2. Areas highlighted in gray exceed the maximum values of the standards. New design formulas are developed from this.
My opinion: An interesting study that shows the sensitivity of the system to changes in the bedding. Which of the load cases examined are realistic remains open.
Quote from the study:
Conclusions
The flexural behavior of a concrete sleeper is highly dependent on the sleeper support conditions. Current design recommendations make different assumptions for these sleeper support conditions, which leads to different recommended design bending moments. The parametric study presented shows the high level of sensitivity of the center bending moment as a function of changing support conditions. Design bending moments at the sleeper center can be exceeded under small shifts in distribution of the ballast reaction. This demonstrates that frequent tamping to keep the ballast reaction concentrated under the rail seats can prevent very high center negative bending moments that cause cracking. This high sensitivity also suggests that current design recommendations for center bending moment may need to be increased. Sleeper span-to-depth ratios indicate that for rail seat positive bending the sleeper behaves as a deep beam, transferring load through a compressive field. As such, reductions in design bending moments for positive bending at the rail seat for both the AREMA and AS recommendations may be warranted. At the very least, treating the rail seat load as a point load is overly conservative. The assumption that the rail seat load acts over the entire width of the rail base is used in the proposed equations. For center negative bending the span-to-depth ratio is greater and the sleeper experiences closer to true flexure. The support condition assumptions used in current design recommendations did not correspond closely with the support conditions measured in field testing, which suggests that current support condition assumptions may need to be modified to more closely match field conditions.
Regards, Volker