Right now the oil and gasoline futures are being pushed up in price by various retirement funds trying to get a jump and make a buck. The final price peak is unknown and then if and when a price decrease will happen is unknown. At noon today refinery gasoline was priced at $3.05 / gal. In Georgia retail gasoline costs about $.45 / gal mre in about 3 days after a refinery posted price. So we can expect $3.50 / gal by Thursday here in Georgia.
My question is: Have any posters seen an uptick in traffic both AMTRAK and the various commuter rail lines?
Weather and other problems have cut back word days in the Northeast over the past week into this week, so you probably won’t see any effects in the reproted numbers until at least next week. However, note that gas prices in the NE are higher than you are reporting…have been well over $3.50 in many places with $4.00 not unheard of. So, the answer to your question next week will be: yes, there is an increase in commuter rail ridership and also in Amtrak ridership in selected corridors.
Amtrak says that the number of riders on its trains increased 4.6% in January 2011 compared to January 2010. It attributes the increase to an improved economy, sustained high gasoline, prices, greater appeal of train travel, effective marketing campaigns, and the introduction of Wi-Fi on the Acela trains. Moreover, the number of riders has increased during the first quarter of FY11, with increases across the system.
Capital Metro reports a slight increase in the number of its riders during January 2011 over January 2010. It attributes the increase to higher gasoline prices, improve bus schedules, and all day operation of its commuter rail line coupled with a reduction in rail commuter fares.
As of right now, it is cheaper for me to buy an Amtrak ticket on line, drive to Saint Louis, take the train to Chicago, walk to OTC, and catch a train to Mount Prospect to see my parents than to drive my truck. Therefore, my next trip there should be on Amtrak and METRA (barring some kind of emergency).
If an increase in ridership hasn’t been noticed, I believe it will be seen shortly. People are looking for any way to save money.
Wait until the Feb. & March numbers come out, reflecting the huge price spike in the 2nd half of Feb. and continuing in March. Demand may exceed capacity.
Decisions of whether to take a train or a car or even take a trip at all are decided “on the margin.” That is when people make some calculation regarding their car expenses and the cost of a train ticket, make some decision of what their time and convenience are worth, increasing the price of gas while keeping the price of a train ticket the same will tip the decision towards the train.
As the train is such a small part of the total market at this time, even a small effect of getting some motorists to forgo a car and take the train may have a big effect on train ridership. That increase in ridership with the rise in gas prices is a way of running the experiment to see if offering financial incentive to ride the train (or financial disincentive to use one’s car) would get people to consider the train. It doesn’t necessarily mean, however, that the train is going to solve the energy crisis.
What you have determined is that 1) if the intercity route one wants to take is served not only by a train but an intercity train plus a commuter train at the 'remote end", 2) there is adequate parking at the “near end” of the journey, in availability, safety to one’s person or property, and with respect to parking fees, 3) your “daily driver” is a light truck (such as a GM Sierra) rather than a small car (such as a Toyota Corolla), 4) either the Toll Road as you approach Mount Prospect is hopelessly congested at the time you want to travel and changing your departure time is inconvenient or you value your time that the getting to St Louis Amtrak station early enough that you don’t miss your train, the walk from Union Station to Ogilvie, waiting for the next train to Mount Prospect, and then waiting for your parents to meet you or perhaps walking from the train station to the house, that the resulting time differential is a good trade for the extra cost of driving, and 5) that it is just you making the trip, not you and your friend, you and a spouse, you and your own famil
We have had 40 years to address the problem of fossil fuel, yet we had our heads in the sand. Prices go up, then drop part way and we go back to the old ways. If Nicola Tesla were alive today, he would be ahead of his time. He wrote a letter to the New York Times warning us about dependence of fossil fuels in 1930. Many mindless corporations are only capable of year-to-year projections. However, our good trading partners in China and Korea are concerned with their lack of resourses and may solve the alternative energy problem. I keep waiting for an American wake-up call!
My question is more to the point. I would like for actual riders to give us a feeling of if there is an uptick in ridership. Also any riders if you have time ask the crew what they are observing. figures will be out but it is 6 weeks after a month is over before we can see them. However NNE riders and Va riderships numbers for FEB can be out now.
Anecdotal reports mean little, Blue Streak 1. Too many people are blase` or otherwise don’t really understand what they see; it is unknown to them that the missing person has retired, changed jobs, or changed trains or why new passengers may in fact be there. The survey, count, has to be more official and the count has to be in fares rather than nose count (how many deadheads?) . Yeah, a crowded train or fewer seats would indicate a rise in ridership, but the more scientific counting will be more accurate and tell the real or whole story. But a crowded train car could also mean on less car on the train all of a sudden for some reason, the elimination of another train or a change of hours at a given place of employement or a change in schedule of a connecting transportation service… So, while, yes, some will maybe notice more people around them at some time or another, the count at the fare box is what actually matters.
Mr. Milenkovic, you are good. You hypothesised my thinking very well. You even picked the make and model of truck. Since my driving route to the Chicago metropolitan area takes me past the exit for St. Louis’ train station there isn’t that much of a change in my route. Also, I try to run around sixty miles per hour (in the right lane) to save on fuel and I try to keep a three second following distance (per Missouri’s Driver’s Guide) or two second (Illinois’ I believe) to keep from being delayed by an officer of the law. It is a given that this is depending on traffic conditions.
However, I am of the opinion that most people would not think through all the variables. They might look at the cost of the train tickets and parking, time in transit, and convenience. And, yes, traveling with a companion or a family would change things.
As an aside, I was suprised how many people were using the Lincoln Service and the Missouri River Runner four years ago. That was when I was at the Lou’s station once a week. Maybe, I’ll take a ride up tomorrow and see what the crowd looks like. Oh, wait, gas went up another nickel a gallon today. Maybe, I’ll stay home. [:-^]
I was looking for more of a report that certain trains had 1 or more additional cars on that train. The cars may be available especially since some were added during the thanksgiving holiday rush.
You are probably not going to find additional cars as most agencies don’t have additional cars to add to trains. You will more likely find crowded conditions where there are standees. Of course, Amtrak sells seats by advance reservations and will “sell out” a train similar to airlines. But commuter lines will allow standees. If suche crowding conditions persist they will try to find cars from less crowded trains and move them among consists but that is not a thing they can do on a half hours notice.
Well AMTRAK released their February ridership figures yesterday. Total ridership 2.099M. Was up over 7.6% over 2-2010. Short haul up 8.1%, long haul 6.3%, ACELA up 12.1 % and NEC regional up 5 %. Since Feb is a short month so comparsions are difficult but with some assumptions a few items may be inferred (with of course a decent amount of skepticism)
Historically the dead of winter Feb numbers can be multiplied by 1.25 to get the following Jun, Jul, Aug ridership numbers.
If you factor up the Feb numbers for the 3 extra days leaves Jan the least traveled month.
AMTRAK had service cutbacks in FEB (continuing into March on some routes ) of Newport News, midday Piedmonts, Crescent ATL - NOL (mon _ Thur)
We are all aware of the numerous cancellations of the Empire Builder and to a lesser extent to the Cal Z in Feb and continuing into this month. Also the Cascades suffered 5 or 6 days of cancellations due to mudslides on its BNSF routing.
If all the above cancellations had not occurred Feb may have been better than Mar - May 2010 if factoring in is taken. There were some big surprizes in individual routes.
Discounting extra Piedmont service the best route improvement Short Dist was WASH - Newport news at 43% and Lynchburg at 36% .
Long distance improvements were large as Florida service was better this year all trains over 10%. Capital limited up 32%.
Builder and Crescent only LD with a decrease. SD - Cascades down 18%E.
The step child of all routes is the Hoosier State with just 1866 riders; a dismal 58 average. IMHO terible timekeeping (schedule 196 miles in 5 hours or 40 MPH average) and no interest in marketing + no lounge or meal service. This appears to be what essentially is a trip made for ferrying equipment to/from Beech Grov
The Hoosier State only runs 4 days a week, so for 4 weeks, only 16 round-trip trains. Still, poor ridership at 58 per train. Trip time to Chicago will eventually reportedly improve when the Englewood flyover and other CREATE projects are done, but those are years away. I think one reason Amtrak wants to take the Cardinal daily is so that the Hoosier State service is not dependent on Indiana to provide state subsidy funding.
The Feb-2010 to Feb-2011 increases for the Lynchburg, Norfolk News, Silver services are up in part due to the massive snowstorms that hit the mid-Atlantic region in Feb, 2010. Many of the services were suspended for days.
Hoosier State is good example of running trains instead of providing service. More trains, more service, more riders, more income, better chance at breaking even if not turning a profit! But, hey! This is America!
Here on New Jersey Transit, Boonton Line, the answer is; Not Much.
The last time we had a dramatic spike in gas prices I did notice an increase in ridership. This time things are different. Fares have increased due to the recession and the state budget. We have also lost a lot of jobs in New York City so fewer people are commuting.
henry: Even if the Hoosier State were run 5-10 times each way at convenient times throughout the day, it would not be a “service” that many would choose to ride. Reason? Lack of competitive speed. CHI - IND = 186 mi. By car 3 - 3.5 hours. By Amtrak bus 4 hr, 15 min. By the Hoosier State 5 hr, 5 min. (and usually late) 36 mph. An average speed like that might have been competitive in the 1860’s, but not 150 years later.
Service is not just running a train or trains but also: provide convenience, price, time and timing, frequency…service means the whole thing not just one part! So, yeah, of course the timing/speed would have to be part of the package! Service via more trains could mean fewer stops per train, faster speeds overall, so many things not limited to providing a locomotive and a car.
The Hoosier makes 4 scheduled and one flag stop between Chicago and Indianapolis. Even if you reduced the number of stops to two, the 20 minutes of time saved is irrelevant. Service needs to be fast enough to be competitive with other modes, frequent enough to become a go-to alternative and convenient in terms of getting to and from the train. But without adequate speed, there is no service.
The current train is a total joke. In January 2011, ridership on the whole route was 2,332 or 130 people per day (runs four days per week; the other 3 days are the Cardinal). Customer satisfaction = 66%; On-time = 31%; Farebox recovery = 35%. The route is supposed to get “improvements” this year. There is a one-time expense for crew training. The net financial impact is a $2.1 million increase in operating loss. A waste of money because there is no improvement in speed. Here is a link: