From the viewpoint of operational advantages,market and profitability, if you were a marriage broker in the next round of Class 1 mergers, what roads would you merge and why?
None, None, None, None, and . . . . None.
Assuming for the sake of argument that there is some point in the future when another round of mergers make sense, now is not the time. Railroads are doing much better now than in the past and are moving in the right direction. Why mess with it?
More mergers runs the risk of making Railroads too large to be effectively managed. (Is NS management that much better than CSX, or is NS’ size and compactness just that much easier to run).
More over, the larger railroads are, the more they will gear their business to larger companies and deny small to mid-sized shippers effective rail access–hurting the American economy and adding highway congestion.
Finally, if there are more meltdowns like you had in the early 90s as a result of mergers, there is a huge risk of government regulation, which would prove to be a miasma for the industry.
I am not saying it could never happen, but if it were to happen, there would have to be a lot of changes–like wholesale sellings of secondary lines to regionals, which would make the conglomerated railroad more manageable because of its smaller size, would give the conglomerated railroad more ca***o add capacity, and keep railroads in this country that are geared to small to mid-sized customers.
Gabe
Well maybe one . . .
I would like to see a conglomerated KCS/DME/IME. I see this merger as being beneficial for a number of reasons:
(1) It would help protect KCS as an independent railroad, which would serve as a check to the first move in the last round of mergers.
(2) It would be an end-to-end merger, and probably result in better industry competition, as well as give KCS more marketing opportunities.
(3) It would not be so large as to be unmanageable.
Gabe
Is NS’s size and compactness just that much easier to run? What size and compactness? Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought NS is within 10-15% of CSX’s size, certainly not enough smaller to explain the difference in how well-managed the companies are. Large size makes companies harder to manage well, and requires more good managers, but there are well-managed large companies and poorly-managed small companies.
the perfect fit for bnsf would be buying the kcs/tfm railroad. although i must say a kcs dme would be a great merger as well.
WJ&S and ACRR in the mid 1930s. Too much duplicate trackage for a declining passenger base due to completion of Del River Br and US 30 in 1928.
Seems like I read somewhere that further merger between the largest 4 remaining in the US can only harm them.
To wit, if NS merged with BNSF, it would only hurt the interchange that NS currently enjoys with UP (and likewise BNSF’s interchange with CSX)
Makes sense to me.
I predict that the next round of mergers will not happen until one of the major carriers stumbles, economically.
NS also interchanges with BNSF. I see one NSI train a day here.
I think BNSF and KCS would work, and it seems BNSF has interests too.
I believe the Larger Class I’s will continue to work optimizeing there current routes. While a transcon. system may be inevitable for now its not going to happen. I think NS is going to pick up on some NE routage and get a hold in the Market up here. Probably Guilford. CN is most likely going to continue to buy anything in there way while BNSF and UP will continue to work on service out west. CP will do much of the same and CSX, well no one cares cause nobody likes CSX 
ok, maybe I dont like CSX…
None, not talking about shortline like WS or KCS, basically with Class 1’s we have west of the Mississippi, BNSF and UP, East of the Mississippi, CSX and NS, seams like any other mergers would likely result in Monopolies in one area of the country or another.
kcs and ns or kcs and bnsf
BNSF+KCS
KCS+ICE/DME
Part of NS should merge with part of CSX and call itself Conrail.
A.P. Moller buys Canadian National outright to gain direct access to Chicago via New Orleans
Hanjin buys KCS to gain control of the Panama railway
J.B. Hunt aquires a 60% interest in CSX, defaults on the loan, and then itself is aquired by UP, via liquidation
[:O][:O][:O]
Amen,Kurn![bow] CSX started out with its part of Conrail all right, but has fallen down and hard, since! NS,which had so much trouble at first needed time to fix itself, and they did it! My New Ford Escape came in from K.C. to Here in Mudville (Buffalo) NY in under 72 hours, and was on the dealers’ lot before the day was out! (78 hours total!) Now, my conclusion-WABASH LIVES! (tho they did use some ex-PRR and Nickel Plate trackage) It was a fine railroad, which I saw only briefly before N&W leased and later bought it.
It sounds like KCS has the hot dance card in alot of combinations. I wish I had the dough to play the stock market. I get the impression that the fellow who runs it sounds alot like a new version of a John Barringer… a guy with a vision of his road and the smarts to make it happen. It also sounds like a balance has been struck between the Class I’s and that if anyone of them moved on a merger everybody would scramble for the leftovers. Maybe thats why they are holding back. Another good point was how big can an organization get before it “tips” and becomes unmanagable? It sounds like alot of indigestion was on the menu in the wake of the Conrail split. I read No Way To Run A Railroad about the Penn Cenral collapse where they lost cars for weeks because the two roads had two different software systems and had two completely different ways to do their accounting. Which do you think is the best managed Class 1 left?