~From Professor Jeffrey E Harris of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a new paper:
New York City’s multitentacled subway system was a major disseminator – if not the principal transmission vehicle – of coronavirus infection during the initial takeoff of the massive epidemic that became evident throughout the city during March 2020. The near shutoff of subway ridership in Manhattan – down by over 90 percent at the end of March – correlates strongly with the substantial increase in the doubling time of new cases in this borough. Maps of subway station turnstile entries, superimposed upon zip code-level maps of reported coronavirus incidence, are strongly consistent with subway-facilitated disease propagation.
From Mark Steyn:
A subway car is the opposite of social distancing: With each jolt of the train, the petite strap-hanging blonde has her nose pressed deeper into the chest hair of the sweaty corpulent guy she doesn’t know. Professor Harris makes the point that reducing service, as both New York and London have done, doesn’t really help with that - because it’s better to have a thousand people spread out over three different trains rather than wedged into one.
Unfortunately it’s a problem with no easy solution.
The subways are there, they won’t and can’t be abandoned, they have to be used. When the virus is over (and eventually it will be) people will be back riding and living with any possible risk. Viruses of all kinds will always be with us.
Maybe… possibly … if I had to ride the subway to work I would refuse to do so.
Ennui-- definition ’ a feeling of listlessness and dissatisfaction arising from a lack of occupation or excitement’ example ’ he succumbed to ennui and despair’
So both the Flames of Hell and the Flames of Ennui
Unfortunately it’s a problem with no easy solution.
The subways are there, they won’t and can’t be abandoned, they have to be used. When the virus is over (and eventually it will be) people will be back riding and living with any possible risk. Viruses of all kinds will always be with us
I think a bigger problem, long term, is going to be sea-level rise during storm surge conditions. It caused millions in damage and weeks of outage after super-storm Sandy. There have been other flooding events with lesser damage but I think we’ve seen the handwriting on the wall. Thr els of yesteryear, noisy though were, have the advantage of relative immunity from flooding . And they’re much less costly to build and maintain to say nothing of less time intensive. Operational cost and reliability will determine the outcome of this issuie–hopefully sooner rather than later.
If the future of human occupation of the Earth is Social Distancing - human occupation is in serious danger. 7+ Billion people and only so much inhabitable land area.
Our local bus company has reduced service to where the last bus each day runs at 3:15 PM, and there is a maximum number of passengers of 9 on each bus.
With most routes only running once per hour, I can imagine how frustrating it would be to wait for a bus, only to be denied entry due to the maximum passenger restriction, and have to wait another hour HOPING it was not at capacity.
Being an essential employee depending on the bus would not be a fun thing.
I don’t know… sea change coming. What does the world look like a year from now? Incredibly huge changes are in store.
Changes in power, custom and attitude.
I question if my College will ever reopen. Every time a student gets a cold they will disappear for 2 weeks easy. It will have to be on line at their own pace. That’s a lot of layoffs , a lot of loss of privacy, a lot of monitoring.
Many things across the board will have to be done in very different ways.
I would not live anywhere near a city.
If you’re at a restaurant, or theatre, or concert and someone coughs all hell breaks loose. People will be treated like lepers, social pariahas.
Thinking subways and mass transit will somehow have to have restricted access. Even then it dosen’t work if you think about it.
There is no way in hell I would get on a subway .
Furthermore I believe those that wish Western Society harm or some kook ( as I’ve stated previously) is dusting off the old bunson burner right now seeing how easy this is to bring it all to an end. I don’t think we are that far from chaos. Got to hold the line!
Security and Monitoring on a worldwide basis will really have to step up.
I am not a New Yorker and don’t have a New York state of mind.
That being said, us ‘outsiders’ don’t comprehend that most New Yorkers live IN New York - their commute might be from 30th Street to 199th Street - all within the City of New York. The commuters form New Jersey, Staten Island, Long Island, Westchester County are rich enough to afford their form of commutation, be that ferry, train or automobile and the expenses that go with each mode.
Remember the damage from 9/11 affected more than just business properties - it affected schools and housing units. When you live in New York, YOU LIVE IN NEW YORK.
My personal experience with other ‘big’ cities are that vey few people live in the main commercial area of the city - that does not apply in New York.
Miningman - I suspect you are now working as close to NYC as you ever will!
Some suburban commuters are lucky to work in midtown within walking distance from GCT or NYP, but others may need to make a transit connection for beyond those stations.
I haven’t looked at the linked paper (so what follows could be wrong) but initially I have serious doubts about the veracity of that statement. Think about it: There can be a subway station - which will have 2 or more turnstiles entries - every block or so. I think Zip Codes are much larger, even in NYC, encompassing several blocks and multiple subway stations. So how can he associate a particular turnstile within a Zip Code containing multiple turnstiles? More to the point, almost all Zip Codes in NYC have subway stations - and very dense populations - that’s why there are subway stations there. How can he isolate subways as a factor from the corresponding population density? Wonder if this guy has an anti-subway or anti-transit bias, just saying.
We really do not know at this point why the NYC subway system contributed to the very awful situation there whereas other cities with comparable density and transit usage are much less affected.
Availability and social custom of wearing face masks in flu season? More resources put into keeping the subways and trains clean? Shutting the system down in the overnight? More rigorous exclusion of riders not conforming to social norms for crowd etiquette? Other factors having nothing to do with what I just mentioned?
The fact that the number of trains running was cut is undoubtedly a factor.
Research is showing that “casual contact” isn’t as responsible for transmission as may have been suggested, however I would opine that being packed into a subway car like a sardine isn’t “casual contact.”
While we don’t know how much the NYC subways contirbuted to the case rate in the area, I think it is safe to assume that the contribution was signficant.
I’ve seen multiple reports that the subway system is vital to “essential workers”, so it would make sense to limit ridership to essential workers in future pandemics along with sufficient service to prevent crowding. Face masks and other sanitary measures would be a help.