As we read about declining oil reserves in concert with political unrest that is getting steadily worse and demands for more oil increasing daily, I cannot help but wonder to what extent this will have on our hobby.
As we know, petroleum is needed for the production of plastic. Also, heating, cooling, electricity, would all be greatly effected by steep rises in oil costs, further driving the cost of not only manufacturing of the goods we purchase, but to the LHS.
So with this in mind, the prices of all the cars and locomotives that we see today, may be the lowest that we will ever see again. Maybe we should snap up any sales right now, or purchase those items that we have been procrastinating about before we can no longer afford them ( for at least those of us who are retired and on fixed incomes ).
Last year’s hurricane season demonstrated to us vividly, just how fragile the price of oil is. Can you imagine if we have another bad year ( as they are predicting already ) ? And if the terrorist keep blowing up pipelines, and demand keeps rising, what are the alternatives?
It could be a boom for home based hobbies! Instead of heading out in the car, people will stay home and build model railroads. The huge upswing in MRR will result in manufacturers being able to benefit from economy of scale and these savings will more than offset the materials cost increases. The lower costs will be passed on to us!
Hey ***, I’m not sure how much it will effect. alot of the plastic used in the hobby is of the recycled variety anyway, on one hand if gas prices get too high I think Simon’s right more of us will stay home and build instead of driving around on vacations,I’d worry more about the travel/tourism indestry.
Mind you you may see a move twards the more traditional side of the hobby, wood kits from the likes of labelle etc may become the cheap alternative,if the LHS’s are smart most will move towards a mailorder side of the business as well to offset lower customer counts through their doors.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out,remember Canada has a huge as yet mostly untapped oil reserve in the tarsands, it may not be as bad as people think.
Remember that model railroading’s original big boost (including things like Model Railroader Magazine) came during the Great Depression, when funds were short–during World War II, when the materials used for model railroad equipment then (things like zinc and brass) were in dire need, people scratchbuilt out of cigar boxes and shirt cardboard.
I figure that as long as there are trains, there will be model railroading. Rough times often mean people need a way to relieve the daily stress of those times–and what better way is there than model railroading?
I predict that brass will begin to look more affordable to those who have the income to buy them. Also, kit companies (Bowser, e.g.) will see a big leap in patronage.
Keep in mind the cost of transporting brass engines from the Orient to North America will skyrocket too, those ships run on oil !!
I don’t know, I was O scale in the eighties when an good O scale freight car cost $20-25 as a kit, and I was making about $5 an hour, yet I managed to have a layout. I guess if HO plastic freight cars say tripled in price I would continue to buy them, but I’d have to buy more carefully…more planning and less impulse buying. We’ll maybe get back to 1930’s era layouts where somebody ran for years having only 3-4 engines and maybe 20-30 freight cars.
While I don’t know how much oil it takes to make plastic, given how little plastic there is in most models compared to 55 gal/barrrel of oil, I doubt that it will affect the model price that much directly.
Where model railroading will get hurt is in tranportation costs to move materials to manufacturers and finshed product to the LHS and us driving there to get it (or mail ordering it for another shipping charge). This will affect all models not just plastic ones.
The other big impact is that disposable (or entertainment) dollars will go down for most folks as they pay the increased heating costs, food costs, etc. So while we may have more time for the hobby, we will have less dollars for it. (Could lead to an increase in scratch/scavange building).
So if you haven’t bought ahead on kits you might want to stock up now. Personally, I have enough stuff for about 5 or 6 years.[:D]
Well now can you say Recession. Sure, I knew you could. Yep don’t kid yourselves, the oil is there they are just tightening their supply to make us jump. God forbid someone else get their hands on “Their” money! Makes me sick. People will have no disposable cash for anything except the bare essentials. Heat and electricity being two of them.
100 is a good estimate, that some are predicting by this fall.
Here is a heads up. What sells at train shows? used equipment.
Thats what will come back cheap used equipment. Secondly you can by cases or large volumes of blue box kits, and turn them into gems. Fabricating will be cheap. A lot modellers, myself spend way too muhc, and all it will do is tight up my wallet. Companies like Overland, Kato, and other smaller ones could fold. And lastly brass won’t be any cheapier, it might be twice the price as is now. Supply and demand. As long as there is plastic and a knife, its not gonna stop me. It will just enhance my abilities.
From what I understand by watching news programs and such is that most modern plastics are made from vegetable oil already as crude became too expensive years ago. If oil gets to $100 a barrel I think we might be worried where our next meal is coming from rather than what our new train is made of. That price anytime soon would wreck the economy and put most of us out of work, which would make the price drop, yeah, right. Exxon is again #1, let’s all rejoice as they showed up Walmart. I hope they can balance their need for profit vs what the economy can substain or woe is me. Fred
Con - prices for everything will rise; even home-grown vegetables will get more expensive. This translates to higher prices for hobby supplies and less discretionary income to use buying them.
Pro - it will be cheaper to bring Cajon Pass to your garage than to drive over to see it, unless you live in San Bernardino. It will also give a great boost to the Canadian oil sand refining business, which is claimed to have greater reserves than Saudi Arabia. Telecommuting will make all that driving time available for other purposes, as well as the money used for auto fuel, auto maintenance and business ‘uniforms.’
I think something like the US going bankrupt like what will probably effect it more than what high gas prices will, but I think we have more like the issue of how long we will continue to exist (the human race) is the more important question. Hopefully thing will continue smoothly until I am long dead, but who knows![tdn]
Interesting thought. I remember reading somewhere that when the economy turns south, places like Home Depot and Lowe’s see more sales - people save bucks by doing projects themselves, or spend weekends/vacation making something around the house vise travelling. Perhaps it will happen in the hobby also? Jetrock brings up a good point about the strength of the hobby during the Depression.
If you think about it, there are facets of the hobby that are very very cheap from a dollars per hour standpoint. A DPM kit can easily see hours and hours of “recreation time” in the assembling, painting, detailing and weathering. How much does scenery cost per hour? Perhaps shrinking disposible income will dimini***he higher priced RTR stuff and generate a increase in scratchbuilding, Blue Box kits, increased levels of painting/weathering etc. We’ll have to wait and see.