Hello All:
I’m just wondering people’s opinions on when collector prices kind of peaked?
I’m not referring to how new trains are more expensive all the time, but more for vintage collectible stuff.
I took a break from collecting after my dad died in 2005 and only am just getting back into it now - seems like a lot has changed!
Paul
When did they peak? I guess it depends on what the item is.
Used (weren’t most of them?) postwar Lionels peaked around ten or so years ago and have been dropping in value since that time. So if you don’t mind a bit of wear on that post-war they’re a lot more reasonable than they used to be.
On the other hand “Mint-in-the-box-never-run” post-wars are still commanding high prices, at least the last time I looked. Since I can’t afford 'em I don’t look all that often.
A lot of the more common pre-wars with wear on them are getting reasonable as well.
The best thing to do is when the train shows get started again (and they will) go visit one and walk around checking prices to “Get your eye in” on what you like and what you’re willing to pay. There are some deals to be had!
IMHO prices peaked early at the turn of the Century, 2000. A congregation of factors came into effect.
What was trending in a shrinking market began to take hold in the great recession. By the time the recession was coming to a close, collecting and prices had peaked and started to decline.
While there is still a market for mint and rare items the general everyday runner postwar has begun to seriously constrict. I do not think we’ll see the market of the early 2000s ever again.
I will absolutely agree with the top two posts and add that the prices in the post war and secondary used market are still spiraling down. At one time post war trains were a great investment but they have run their course. If a hobbyist just wants basic conventional operation as I do, its a great time to get into the hobby.
Early 2000s is when they peaked in my opinion.
If you adjust for the comparative value of the dollar, I think they peaked in the late Seventies or early Eighties.
All the above sound good if the original poster did mean post-war or pre-war Lionel.
(I know the OP wrote “vintage”, that can mean different things to different people 
)
If one was to consider some MTH trains, I’d say some of the auction high bids I’ve seen recently would suggest MTH collector prices are peaking (or maybe not peaked yet, even) right now.
Of course that may be a temporary peak in interest due to the closure announcement from last year. It could level out after a bit of time. Time will tell. 
The specific examples that are most fresh in my mind were 2 subway set items (note these were not from the actual MTH warehouse auctions, so there should not be the “it was owned and kept at MTH headquarters” pride of ownership for the bidder with respect to these 2 items, as there could be for MTH Warehouse auction items)
A two car add-on set for the R-40 subway set recently went for $910 on eBay. While this is a Premier set, the add-on sets of 2 cars listed for $200 when offered. It may have been a less common set seen for sale over the years (I’d been casually looking at train meets), but I don’t think they were routinely selling for over $900.
A four car R-21 locosound (not Protosound 2.0 with DCS) equipped subway set went for $1300 in another auction I saw (original MSRP $200 when offered). True this was one of the earlier subway sets (1st one available with Protosounds 2.0), but over the years with so many other subway sets offered, the interest probably went down a bit, and most people valued the Proto2 version of this same set with DCS far more than the locosound version that does not have the DCS command control capabilities, auto-mode for station stops, etc… And this was a traditional auction house, if my memory serves for where I saw it. So the buyer actually paid a 15% buyer premium over that, for a total of $1495.
I’m probably out of left field here, so I apologize if so (OP quite probably did mean post war Lionel). But seeing these 2 items seems like a good demonstration of how collectability can evolve.
Even though recently a few bits of news of some small parts of the MTH product lines being successfully sold to other companies, this is probably the surge in interest with the thought “MTH isn’t making trains anymore”. (sort of how post war collectors always contrasted post war to more modern trains with the “they aren’t making any more” argument for post-war trains)
Who knows if that level of interest in MTH will continue or possibly ramp down a bit in the coming years. I feel confident stating it’s pretty high right now for quite a bit of the MTH product line. Those were just very extreme examples that caught my attention.
I agree with Big Al that 2000 or so was a turning point. I think it was partially everyone finally bought the postwar stuff they didn’t get as kids, and perhaps more importantly, the sheer tonnage of brand new stuff arriving from the manufacturers.
The bigger question is probably how did this 4 year old thread start showing up as “new” in our feeds?
And yes, early 21st century was the high water mark in my opinion as well.
I think it happens when someone “likes” an old post, which is what happened here. Whenever there’s any action on an old thread, it shows up as new again.
My fault (I think).
As I mentioned in my response in the “TCA” thread where the same thing happened, I edited a bunch of my (more long winded ! ;)) older posts where I noted a lot of the text was cut off when the old Forum content was migrated here.
(There seems to have been some character limit to how much was copied during the migration)
When I did so, it seems that if the post I edited was the final post in the thread, it flagged the topic as “new”. This didn’t happen to threads where I edited a post that was NOT the final post in the thread.
At least that’s the noticeable pattern that I think explains what happened.
I received an e-mail saying there was new activity in the thread so I added a comment 
A learning experience for everyone at the same time 
Glad to “see” you Bob! Please don’t be a stranger here!
There’s a theory that the price bell curve had to do with the income of the collectors/buyers. Those born in the late depression era / early baby boom years would be at their peak earning range in the 1990s-2000s. They used the money to buy the things they wanted when they were 10 or 12 but couldn’t have afforded in the postwar years. Once they retired, their income went down, and they bought less. Plus of course, there were many more of them then later generations. Now they’re dying out, and younger folks have other interests.
That last point hits home. I remember 10-15 years ago table holders at York complaining about how they basically could not sell as much of their stuff that they wanted top dollar for that folks could find online for a better price. For the most part pre-internet people would take the price guides and hold firm on whatever they said. And usually they were overpriced.
Welcome aboard VideoPGH!
The “dying out” is a valid point even though it’s an ominous one. The die-offs and retirement downsizing means a lot of Post-Wars, MPC, and LTI Lionels are and have been coming on the market and the prices reflect that. Good old “supply and demand” at work.
Welcome to the forum, VideoPGH!
