Another conjecture – the ICC and some state PUC’s (like California’s) would have continued to force the railroads to fulfill their historical (and in some cases legal) responsibility as a regulated carrier, to carry passengers as well as freight. Some RR’s committed to providing quality passenger service (such as Santa Fe, Rio Grande, Southern) would have continued to do so with vigor.
And, maybe, as capitalist companies being forced to continue such services, they would have found ways of doing so with less losses, or even a profit. And passenger rail might again be thriving in the US, under private ownership!
Yes, yes, I know – that has not happened anywhere else. But neither did the (highly-subsidized)growth of air travel – nearly everywhere outside of the US, early air service was government owned, only recently being privatised. Only here has the passenger air industry grown up totally on a commercial basis.
This might have happened, even though they may have generated some losses for some time. It seems to me that with technological advances, rationalization of labor laws, some liberalisation of regulation – and a commitment to providing fast, efficient, friendly service, as opposed to pushing customers away, as the SP did – some RR’s might have been able to make it happen.
Also, don’t forget that there have always been – and always will be – a percentage of the populace that will not or cannot fly or drive. As the overall population grows, so does the absolute number represented by that percentage. And as flying lost its mystique, and became more like an airborne bus, more people might have gone back to the “good old” train. Yes, PSA and Southwest revolutionized air travel, but there are still significant business-class and first-class services available.
And maybe, rail services to smaller communities might have been subsidized as “essential”, just as their is subsidised commercial air se