I’m doing some research for an article I need to write. Does anyone have any insight for me on which loco companies have the largest US market share? This article targets HO and O scale (but I’m curious about G as well). Any information would be appreciated.
Biggest problem is that no one releases numbers, so everyone has a guesstimate. Here’s mine.
G is likely the simplest – LGB.
O might be Lionel or MTH, but Atlas sells a lot of units, too.
The situation in O starts to show the problem – exactly which market are you talking about with HO? Are you talking number of locos sold or the net revenue from sales? Because there’s a vast divergence between what scale moderls want, say a Genesis F unit, and what some kid finds he has to settle for, a Bachmann F unit. Definitely a difference in cost. Bachmann probably sells way more F units than Athearn these days, but Athearn may earn more revenue from its higher quality product.
Bachmann is pretty big, so even though it probably earns less per unit in profit, I’ll bet it has higher overall sales than Athearn. One thing’s for sure, the HO market is very complex, so picking a winner could be done a number of different ways, all with good reason to justify them.
I agree that Bachmann wins hands down since they sell O Scale 3 rail,On30,N Scale and HO.
Great information - thank you. Probably for this particular article I’m considering numbers of locomotives (as opposed to profi margin per loco) although that is a very interesting consideration. Within the HO market, do you think Atlas does numbers that are at all comparable to Bachmann (or is Atlas focus primarily on O)? Does Walthers manufacture as well and are they a volume player? I know they are traditionally a distributor. Where does Kato fit into the picture.
Very appreciative of your input.
Agree with Mike, hard data is going to be propriatary and therefore extremely difficult, if not impossible to document. So what the OP is asking is basically an impossible question to answer.
Any answer the OP does get is going to be guess, and guess (even educated guesses) could still be totally off because usually our perception is based on incomplete information. People hear this and that, so what feed back given may be based on a lot of annecdotal information - and of course it does depend on market segment.
e.g. Bachmann reportedly has a huge train market in other parts of the world, but in the U.S. less - so that could skew things. And what you see on the shelves varies wildly.
If you are writing an article, I’m assuming you will need to cite sources, so I’m not really sure you will want to cite train forum feedback because it is not reliable data. Anything approaching publish worthy information should be based at minimum on some kind of data based on numbers, even sales figures or even a poll with a statistically significant sample.
Jim,I’m not to sure about that since Bachmann added Sound to some of the locomotives and the lower street price ($109.97-124.95) makes them attractive to the average modeler that doesn’t have extra deep pockets.
Part of the problem here is that these are made by non publicly traded companies as far as I know so no sales figures need to be released.
It is very hard to get data on any aspect of mrr. I have been told that the closest well to tell how many model railroaders exist is to track magazine subscriptions.
I would contact a few of the bigger retailers, like Trainworld or M.B. Klein, and ask them. See if you can talk to someone in their marketing department. They might not give you numbers, but perhaps they’ll give you percentages. They deal with all the major manufacturers, so if they’ll tell you anything it will probably be worth your time.
But, what you’ve already read here is true. Companies tend to keep this kind of information a closely guarded secret.
Bachmann is by far the largest, but who is second is anybodys guess. The world is a big place and scales that are rare in the US like TT trive in some other countrys.
I have tried to do something similar to what your doing. Instead of looking for a market share, I was trying to find out (from a collectors point of view) the production runs, totals, numbers, etc… Stats for certain models and roads. These encompassed past and present models by certain companies.
A more limited search, but the answer would yield a more vast amount of data. Alas, I forecast your quest will be the same as mine. In contacting the companies directly, 9 out of 10 boldly stated that they do not and will not release those numbers. 1 out of ten stated they dont keep those numbers and would have no idea anyways.
Considering the 9 - i dont know why these numbers are kept secret. When asked, the 9 mostly repeated its company only information. Cant blame them for company secrets, but this isnt one of them.
While I think the collective of modellers and collecters should have the right to know (so we may base more accurate monetary values to the rare items for instance, or for insurance purposes), and there is no other public reason why not to know, the 9 are adament in keeping this “recipe” of numbers under lock and key.
Pretty much, answers in this forum are going to be guesses. Unless you get a post from a company rep who is willing to pass out the numbers. Good Luck!
Wow.
Seriously? Of course there’s a darn good reason to keep production numbers secret: they don’t want other manufacturers to know.
Anyone can make model trains. All it takes is money up front (say around $80,000 for a brand new, high-end model). The real trick is to make money, and do it over and over again without losing your shirt. How does one lose one’s shirt? By making too many of any one model. The ideal is to make just enough models to sell out quickly. This maximizes your return on the investment.
Now lets set up an example of two companies that want to produce almost the same model at roughly the same quality level, but not at the same time. Company X makes it first and says they made 10,000 units. Half the models sell within 6 months, but the other 5000 units don’t sell at wholesale and have to be dumped on the market. Company Y sees this and, now knowing the market, trims their orders to just 5000 units. The result is that Company Y makes money while Company X loses money. Why should Company X do the market research for Company Y, especially for free?
Production numbers will continue to be the No. 1 secret in this hobby. New product announcements are leaked, but real production numbers are never posted.
Paul A. Cutler III
Yes, seriously. And lets use your example. What you describe works both ways. Likewise, company X may have lost money, and company Y profitted by reading the market, well, so can company X on what company Y has done in the past. So can company z.
Dont forget, as a business, the goal is to get folks to buys yours. Who cares if company X didnt sell but half, figure out how company Y can make theirs sell better. Even WITH the knowledge of company X’s failure.
Production numbers arent trade secrets like mixture of plastics used, or design blueprints…
PM,
Your argument holds up in historic terms. The only problem is it doesn’t work in near realtime. A vendor is usually trying to get any edge they can. Having a competitor know you made 7000 units in the first run, sold out, and have announced another run might just draw the interest of someone else. They may already have a previous version, knowing it won’t sell in today’s market without an upgrade. Knowing how well a competitor’s version sells could get you to jump in – or not. If not, you may be dusting off another project where a conflict with someone else arises. It’s a tough biz. Leaving the doors open to the sales office is just not something most are willing to do, despite the natural curiosity of some consumers.
I do hope you can figure out a way to convince vendors to come forward with historical data, say that which is 4 years old or older. Any newer than that and it would tend to clash with the second run decisions on many items.
In additon to all previously mentioned sound business reasons NOT to disclose production numbers, there is one very important factor our collector friend does not understand or take into account. Their market is not collectors - at least not thart kind of collector.
All these companies plan to make more of the same item if they keep selling - lots more.
How many F7’s has Athearn made since 1953? Hundreds of thousands no doubt, maybe millions, all very similar to the model still being produced in their Ready to Roll line.
The Athearn RTR line is still about 50% based on the orginal yellow box/blue box kit line started in the 50’s, and was also offered RTR in the early 60’s.
AND they are still making a great number of those items exactly the same, except for better paint, knuckle couplers and different trucks.
I hate to break it to you PM, but they are not in the business of making “collector items”, they are not interested in increasing or establishing a value for what they made last year or last decade, they are interested in getting people to buy more new trains, and they will make more of what ever they figure out sells.
And they will make it with the same dies and tooling whenever possible - for 60 or 70 years as we have seen so far in some cases.
The current “limited run” thing is a marketing scheme, but it has largely backfired and has hurt the market as much as it has helped and has hurt the retail hobby industry.
Model trains have always been producted in small run “batches”, now they just try to “sell out” each batch as fast as possible. But as long as the stuff sells, you can be sure they will make more just like the last batch - diluting your “collector” value.
What would make an Athearn 50’ flat car with two vans from 1963 more valueable than one made last year - the bad paintjob or the pizza cutter wheels on the one from 1963? I know - the horn hook couplers!
Sheldon, I beg to disagree. My Bachmann-built Thumper was a truly one-of-a-kind “collector’s item”. [(-D]
Rich
Perhaps Larry, but the OP is looking for large scope statistical data here, which I think most undertand is going to be difficult if not impossible to obtain.
So, who are we talking about?
In HO scale:
atlas, athearn, bachmann, BLI, bowser, intermountain,kato,mth,rapido, stewart, walthers(proto).
Who did I miss?
Who has the largest U.S. market share? Your guess is as good as mine.
Rich
Gotta agree, the “limited run” is pretty much the same as “this year’s model”. They always made model railroad items in limited runs. Very few items I’m aware of are made continuously, even track. The one item I can think that’s produced constantly that I use is the lowly Tortoise switch machine. But most of it just isn’t and won’t be collectible in this century at least in terms of appeciating in value.
Now in terms of holding it’s value, that’s different. Barring economic collapse, I expect my investment in Blackstone to hold its value. Blackstone will keep pumping out cars with new numbers and some paint changes. But most of that is what’s called use value – it matter mostly because my imaginary 1:87 shippers need cars. Real world value is somewhat more fungible.
Has it hurt the hobby? I really doubt it. It’s made the business somewhat reliably profitable for those who’ve found the formula and can keep putting out “new” and “improved” product that sells. It increases inventory turns much better than Uncle Irv selling you that 19th identical version of a hopper you need to restecil a unique road number on. Current “limited run” sold out? Wait, it’ll be back or you can usually decorate one yourself if you’re too impatient to wait.
Lowly?
How dare you!
Rich